As the non-conference schedules wind down and teams begin to gear up for conference play, we have enough of a sample size to get a true feel for where teams are at and what their expectations are. With what we’ve seen so far, who poses the biggest to unseat Villanova as Big East champions? Let’s assess the three true threats.
Butler
The Bulldogs are off to a 10-1 start. They have put together a resume that can stand up with anyone in the country, with wins over Northwestern, Utah, No. 8 Arizona, No. 9 Indiana, and No. 22 Cincinnati. Butler doesn’t wow you, but they have been one of the steadiest and most impressive teams in college basketball.
Butler has been successful with stellar defense and a balanced offense, led by Kelan Martin. Martin has become a clear go-to player for the Bulldogs. He is averaging 18.6 points and 4.3 rebounds. At 6-7, 220, he brings strength and athleticism, and can be a handful around the basket.
Andrew Chrabascz is the only other Bulldog averaging double-figures at 11.3 points per game. He is also chipping in 5.4 rebounds.
Beyond the two players in double-figures, Butler has four players averaging 8+ points per game. One of those players is 6-8 Tyler Wideman, who rounds out Butler’s trio of key frontcourt players. The other three comprise the Bulldogs crucial backcourt factors.
Seniors Avery Woodson and Tyler Lewis, as well as freshman Kamar Baldwin, generate most of Butler’s backcourt production. All three are reliable three-point threats. The experience of Woodson and Lewis will be huge for Butler as they enter conference play and look to make a run in March.
Rebounding could be an issue for the Bulldogs. They don’t have a single player averaging more than six rebounds per game, and are only averaging 31.3 per game as a team. So far, they have been able to overcome this weakness (they were outrebounded 42-26 in their win over Indiana), but it could catch up to them at some point.
Despite the rebounding issue, stout defense and experienced guards are factors that have proven to be huge come March. Their balance on the offensive end is a plus as well. You can’t argue with the results Butler has produced this season, and they should be a factor in Big East play and into the NCAA Tournament.
Creighton
Creighton has raced out to a perfect 11-0 start. While their resume isn’t as sturdy as Butler’s, they do hold a win over No. 9 Wisconsin. Although Butler has a legitimate argument, Creighton has probably been the second best team in the Big East behind Villanova so far this season.
The Creighton backcourt was expected to be among the best in the nation, and they have lived up to their billing. Marcus Foster appears to have put his off-court issues behind him, and is leading the Bluejays with 18.2 points per game. Maurice Watson Jr. has been stellar as well, with 13.1 points per game to go along with 9.2 assists and 1.6 steals. Sophomore Khyri Thomas has been a pleasant surprise, averaging 12.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.7 steals. He is also shooting 53% from three.
While the backcourt has lived up to expectations, they frontcourt has stepped up as well. Senior Cole Huff has been steady, but freshman Justin Patton has really turned heads. He was expected to contribute, but he has found his stride and proven to be one of the better freshman in the Big East this season. He is averaging 11.8 points and 6.3 rebounds while shooting a scorching 78% from the floor.
The only major concern for Creighton has been its free-throw shooting (64.8%). That could come back to bite them in a close game. With the highly-touted backcourt living up to expectations and the frontcourt contributing, Creighton has one of the most productive offenses in the nation, and looks poised to exceed already high expectations.
Xavier
Entering the season, Xavier was viewed as the main threat to Villanova’s run of dominance in the Big East. Back-to-back losses caused the Musketeers to tumble in the rankings, but they should still be a factor in the Big East. A disastrous second half against Baylor turned a three-point halftime lead into a 15-point defeat. Xavier followed that up with a loss at Colorado. A win over Utah got Xavier back on track, and then they secured a four-point win over a Wake Forest team that Villanova beat by 19. Xavier currently sits at 9-2, but they lack a true signature win.
Their offense is generated almost completely by three players: Trevon Bluiett (19.3), J.P. Macura (14.6), and Edmond Sumner (14.5). All three of those players is also averaging more than four rebounds per game. But after those three, the Musketeers don’t have a player averaging more than eight points.
Bluiett, Macura, and Sumner are very good players, and have the potential to carry Xavier a long way. At the same time, relying so heavily on three players can cause problems if they find themselves struggling at the same time. Also concerning for Xavier is the lack of three point shooting, where they connect on just 32% as a team and don’t have a single player hitting more than 37%. Xavier seems to be the kind of team who can play with anyone in the country, but who could also suffer a surprising defeat at any time.
Overview
Now that we have assessed the primary threats to prevent Villanova from repeating as Big East champions, which team poses the biggest threat? I’d have to say it’s Creighton.
Creighton has a talented and relatively experienced backcourt that can play with any in the country. Patton’s emergence as a player able to make an immediate impact greatly improves the frontcourt and gives the Bluejays a decent inside-outside balance. At 7-0 he could be a matchup nightmare for the Wildcats. They are also lethal from three, and Villanova fans have nightmares of another hot-shooting Creighton team. We’ll get an early look at the Bluejays, as Nova travels to Creighton for their second Big East game on New Year’s Eve.
