The 2021-22 college basketball season kicks off Tuesday and Villanova enters the season with no shortage of storylines and intrigue. The ‘Cats enter the campaign with high expectations and some clear factors that will help determine how far the team can go. He are three things we’ll be paying particularly close attention to as we get our first look at the 2021-22 Wildcats.
Get off to a good start defensively
The Wildcats open the season ranked 37th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Last season, they finished 66th in that metric. In 2019-20, they landed at 36th. In 2018-19, they were all the way down at No. 81. Conversely, the 2015-16 national title team ranked 5th in defensive efficiency and the 2017-18 championship team was 11th. In fact, from 2013-14 through 2018-19, the ‘Cats finished in the top 12 in that metric every year. The 2008-09 Final Four team ranked 10th in defensive efficiency.
There are a lot of factors at play here, from unexpected early departures to injuries to the disrupted offseason and disjointed practice schedule during the pandemic season. With the return of Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, ‘Nova boasts an experienced roster with two elite leaders who completely understand what the team is trying to do at both ends of the floor. If Villanova is going to reach its ceiling, it’s going to have to get back to those defensive ways of 2013-19, or at least close to them.
The pieces are in place for them to be able to do that, and it would be great to see them set the tone at that end of the floor right from the start, especially considering the opening opponent starts the season ranked 312th out of 358 in offensive efficiency.
What will we see from our X-factors
Last week, we listed three X-factors for the season. We believe these factors/questions will play a key role in determining how far Villanova goes this season, and we’ll be watching closely for early clues as to how they might play out this season.
Caleb Daniels was limited last season by injury and illness. Now healthy, he’ll have an opportunity to show the full extent of what he can do. With the way circumstances have shaken out this preseason, Daniels is expected to take on a “sixth starter” role, giving him the chance to make a key impact off the bench. His offensive totals may be limited by the fact that ‘Nova has so many options offensively, but if he can consistently show the offensive prowess he did during his sophomore season at Tulane, the boost to Villanova’s offense will be huge.
Brandon Slater slides into a starting role. He’s already made an impact on the defensive end, and now we wait to see if he can have more of an impact offensively. He showed flashes last year and will be more involved offensively this season. If he can take advantage and provide consistent offense, Villanova becomes that much harder to guard. This early in the season, we’ll simply be looking for some aggressiveness from Slater on the offensive end and for hints that he can play his offensive role.
With a shorthanded frontcourt, Eric Dixon’s development becomes even more crucial for the Wildcats. He should have access to all the minutes he can handle, and ‘Nova will need him to be tenacious on the glass while helping to anchor the defense. The ‘Cats won’t need to rely on Dixon offensively, but if he can score some points off offensive rebounds, hit some open jumpers when they present themselves and provide at least a threat of scoring from the block it will go a long way to helping Villanova offset its biggest weakness.
We’ll be watching Dixon’s ability to defend without fouling, looking to see if his improved fitness can allow him to stay on the floor for longer stretches and be effective and if he can turn some of the flashes he showed last season into consistent production.
What does the rotation look like
The top six is pretty clear with Collin Gillespie, Justin Moore, Jermaine Samuels, Slater, Dixon and Daniels. After that, it gets a little murky. Bryan Antoine is again dealing with an injury and it’s unclear when he’ll get on the court. Chris Arcidiacono picked up some valuable experience last season after Gillespie went down with a knee injury. It will be interesting to see how Jay Wright sets the rotations and breaks up the minutes.
Of course, then there’s the question of what the freshmen contribute. Is Nnanna Njoku ready for minutes? How much does Trey Patterson play, and are all his early-season minutes spent spelling Dixon at the 5 or does he get some minutes at a more natural wing position? Are Jordan Longino and/or Angelo Brizzi in line for any minutes at all?
Before Antoine was injured and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree was ruled out, Villanova looked to have a formidable top nine with an opportunity to get the freshmen some low-pressure minutes when possible. Now, with those two out, things are a lot less clear. It will be interesting to get the first clues as to how Wright will manage the roster this season.
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