The start of Villanova’s 2021-22 basketball season is just days away. The season approaches with plenty of excitement and expectations as the Wildcats return a large portion of last year’s team that gave eventual national champion Baylor a good battle in the Sweet 16 despite being without their leader and starting point guard. Despite the warranted expectations, rarely does a team enter a season without any questions, and this ‘Nova squad is no exception. Here are three X-factors that will help determine just how far the Wildcats can go this season.
Caleb Daniels offensively
We didn’t get to see the best of Daniels in 2020-21 as he was limited by a calf injury as well as a bout with COVID. In fact, following the season, Daniels wasn’t fully cleared to participate in basketball activities until late this summer. Those factors partially explain why Daniels shot a career-low 41.4% from the field in his first season on the Main Line. He did manage a respectable 38.6% from three, up from his sophomore season at Tulane but down from his 39.6% as a freshman.
“I feel like COVID definitely slowed me down a lot,” Daniels said. “I didn’t really notice how bad it was until you look back on the season. It really slowed me down a lot, kind of affected my health a little bit. Now, we’re back healthy and I’m better from that so everything is pretty good.”
Other factors likely played a role here, notably the fact that it was his first season seeing game action with the Wildcats and the somewhat higher level of competition. With a year of experience under his belt, those things should no longer be a factor.
With Daniels feeling completely healthy heading into 2021-22, he should have the opportunity to show off the skills that helped him average 16.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists as a sophomore at Tulane. Daniels didn’t have a bad season last year for ‘Nova, but there’s reason to believe that he can show substantially more in 2021-22. If he does, it will go a long way towards helping Villanova reach its ceiling.
Brandon Slater offensively
In 2020-21, Slater became a key defensive piece for the Wildcats. He often guarded the opponent’s best player and made a sizeable impact at that end of the floor. That will continue in 2021-22. But for the Wildcats to be the best they can be, they’ll need a jump from Slater offensively.
Over the first three years of Slater’s Villanova career, we’ve seen modest offensive growth. He averaged just 0.3 PPG as a freshman in extremely limited minutes. As a sophomore, he averaged 1.6 PPG, again in a limited role. As a junior last season, he saw his role expand as the season went on, but still only averaged 16.8 minutes per game, contributing 3.8 points.
This season, Slater is expected to play significantly more minutes and for ‘Nova to be its best he’ll have to be a threat and a contributor offensively. There are some reasons for optimism on this front. First, despite the limited usage resulting in those 3.8 points per game last season, Slater drastically improved both his field goal and three-point percentages. He hit 49.3% of his shots overall and 41.7% from three. That’s up from 37.7% from the field and 15% from three as a sophomore. He if can come even close to those junior season numbers with an expanded offensive role this season it would be huge for the ‘Cats.
In addition, it’s been clear since the end of last season that the Wildcats would need Slater on the court much more in 2021-22 thanks to his defensive abilities and his experience. Even with the return of Collin Gillespie and Jermaine Samuels, Slater will still be taking on a bigger role and he’s been able to approach the offseason with that knowledge.
Slater said that his confidence is growing. Knowing that he has the coach’s trust defensively is allowing him to play more freely offensively and he’s had a full offseason to work on the necessary offensive skills. If he can put all that together the Villanova offense will become even more difficult to stop.
Eric Dixon’s progression
We’ve saved perhaps the biggest X-factor for last. With the departure of Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and the continuing injury issues with Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree, Villanova finds itself shorthanded (and somewhat short) in the frontcourt and Dixon finds himself the only conventional “big” on the roster with any experience. Jay Wright noted that the frontcourt issues are his biggest concern heading into the season, and how much Dixon can progress and mitigate those issues will play a big role in how far Villanova can go this season.
Dixon is a tantalizing player, a combination of old school strength down low with a developing modern-big game. He showed flashes in limited minutes last season, particularly in a 14-point, 10-rebound three-assist effort against Hartford early in the season. He’s already displayed impressive footwork, solid IQ/vision/passing and tenacity on the glass. This season he’ll have an opportunity to show those things over extended minutes, and just how much he can contribute will be key.
Wright will certainly search for ways to take some of the burden off Dixon (which is good, because it’s entirely unfair to put all of this on Dixon). There is hope that freshman Nnanna Njoku will be able to spell Dixon at the 5 spot, but Njoku has battled concussion and dehydration issues this fall so it’s hard to know where he’s at in terms of being able to contribute on the court. It’s likely he’ll be limited at least through the early part of the season. As a result, Wright has been experimenting with Trey Patterson at the 5. Patterson isn’t a traditional big and that isn’t what Villanova recruited him to do, but he may have to play some minutes there based on the current circumstances. Early indications are that he’s been doing well with those adjustments.
Of course, being undersized and/or shorthanded in the frontcourt is nothing new to Wright, so he may be as equipped as any coach in the country to deal with the issues. Team rebounding has been a staple at ‘Nova under Wright regardless of the roster makeup, and the Wildcats will need to execute that ideal this season. Wright is also a master of teaching fronting the post defensively, helping the Wildcats to mitigate opponent’s size advantages. That’s likely a skill the ‘Cats will need to use throughout the season.
However, even with the tricks Wright has learned over the years and his impressive ability to teach them and with the hope of getting some help from Patterson and eventually Njoku, it’s impossible to ignore the importance of Dixon. It’s clear that he has put in the work this offseason to get in better shape, and that should help him be more effective for longer stretches. It’s clear that he’ll get as many minutes as he can handle. If the flashes that Dixon showed last year can be displayed consistently this season, suddenly Villanova’s frontcourt issues look a lot less problematic and the ‘Cats look a lot more daunting as a national title contender.