To say things have gone off the rails for St. John’s would be an understatement. After an encouraging non-conference run, the Johnnies are winless in 11 Big East games. Curiously, St. John’s snapped that 11-game losing steak with a win over No. 4 Duke on Saturday.
Tonight, the Red Storm will look to build on that momentum and try to earn back-to-back wins over top-five teams.
However, that task will be every bit as hard as it sounds. Despite the impressive win on Saturday, St. John’s still owns an 11-13 record, including that glaring goose egg in the win column in Big East play. Conversely, Villanova sits atop the Big East standings and enters Wednesday night winners of nine-straight. Trying to get a first conference win, in February, on the road, against the No. 1 team in the country, is an unenviable task. The fact that ‘Nova has an advantage in virtually every statistical category doesn’t help either.
That being said, St. John’s did play Villanova relatively tight in the first meeting between the teams, with the ‘Cats ultimately earning with a 78-71 victory. Rather than rehash the strengths and weaknesses of the Red Storm, let’s examine the ‘Nova win over St. John’s to identify the keys to tonight’s game.
Turnovers
The number one factor that allowed the Johnnies to hang with Villanova in January was turnovers. The Wildcats committed 17 of them, while St. John’s had just nine. Against Duke on Saturday, the Red Storm forced 18 Duke turnovers while having just 11 of its own. Not only do turnovers help St. John’s prevent opponents from scoring, they also help to spark the Johnnies at the offensive end, where they have struggled. ‘Nova has done well taking care of the ball this season, and it will be important to do so on Wednesday night.
Shamorie Ponds
Ponds has been fantastic all season long and has only stepped up his game in the absence of second-leading scorer Marcus LoVett. He scored 33 against Duke and has scored 30+ in four of his last seven games. Against ‘Nova, he dropped 37 and singlehandedly kept the Johnnies in the game, as no other St. John’s player reached double figures. Ponds is an adept slasher and got to the rim at will against the ‘Cats. Villanova will need to at least contain him and must try to force him to do his damage from the perimeter, where he hits just 23% of his threes.
St. John’s Supporting Cast
With Marcus LoVett, St. John’s has one of the better offensive backcourts in the conference. Without LoVett, Chris Mullin was left to wonder who would step up to help lighten the scoring load on Ponds. Bashir Ahmed, Marvin Clark II, and Justin Simon have averaged double figures while Tariq Owens adds 8.7 points per game. In the last matchup with ‘Nova, no one in that group really stepped up. In the win over Duke, Ahmed had 19 and Owens had 17. While limiting Ponds is one way to derail the Johnnies, that is sometimes easier said than done. If Ponds gets it going, shifting the focus to making sure he gets no help becomes paramount. That formula worked out for the ‘Cats last time.
Donte DiVincenzo
DiVincenzo has developed a reputation has a St. John’s killer early in his career. In the first game with St. John’s this season he hit six threes en route to 25 points. As the ‘Cats struggled with a slow start and cold shooting, it was DiVincenzo that lifted the tide and set the tone. It will be interesting to see if DiVincenzo, who has played well stepping into the starting lineup for Phil Booth, continues his demolition of the Red Storm.
The Perimeter
Ultimately, this is where the last meeting between the teams was won. ‘Nova hit 13 threes while St. John’s managed just a single basket from beyond the arc. The Johnnies shoot just 32% from deep while ‘Nova is connecting on 42%. Huge advantage for the ‘Cats here.
Overview
‘Nova escaped New York with a win in January despite having one its poorer performances of the season. The ‘Cats are heavily favored in the home rematch, and it’s easy to see why. That said, Villanova will have to take care of the ball. It would be nice to see a stronger start than the one we got in Madison Square Garden, as the Johnnies will be coming in confident off of Saturday’s big win. This isn’t a game where you want to let St. John’s hang around.
As has been the case for many of Villanova’s game this season, simply playing Villanova basketball should be enough to win the game. The ‘Cats are better at both ends of the floor, and simply have to go out and execute.
The game is on CBSSN at 7.
