For St. John’s, it appears the 2017-18 season can be broken down into two distinct parts.
Part one included a somewhat surprising 10-2 run in the non-conference. The most surprising part of that start was how the Johnnies accomplished it: They went from one of the worst defensive teams in college basketball a season ago to an above average one this year.
St. John’s is currently ranked 43 in defensive efficiency by KenPom. The Red Storm average 9.2 steals and 6.5 blocks per game.
While the offense was far from potent, St. John’s was getting double-figures from five players and 7.9 per game from another. Combined with the much-improved defense and the solid non-conference run, it was reasonable to consider the possibility of St. John’s making a run at the back-end of the second-tier of Big East teams and maybe even a spot on the bubble come Selection Sunday.
But then came part two, where things began to crumble. There are two distinct factors that come into play as things began to go off the rails for the Johnnies.
The first one is the injury to Marcus LoVett. LoVett, who was averaging 14.9 points per game, hasn’t played since November 26 against UCF. It was recently announced that LoVett will miss the remainder of the season. The Johnnies have gone 4-6 in LoVett’s absence.
The other factor was the start of Big East play, which has been an absolute disaster for St. John’s. The Johnnies are currently 0-5 in Big East play, with blowout losses to Providence and DePaul particularly damaging. They have also fallen to Seton Hall, Creighton, and Georgetown.
St. John’s went from 10-2 with an opportunity to play its way into the middle-of-the-pack in the Big East and an outside shot at an NCAA berth to 10-7 with a last-place conference finish looking like a very real possibility.
Offensively, St. John’s has struggled, scoring just 73.2 points per game. The Johnnies shoot just 42% from the floor and 32% from three. They average just 13 assists per game while turning it over 12 times. The loss of LoVett exacerbates the offensive issues.
Shamorie Ponds leads the way with 19.1 points per game. He also adds 5.6 rebounds, five assists, and 2.6 steals. But he shoots just 39% from the floor and 20% from three.
Sophomore guard Justin Simon has worked to pick up some of the slack left by LoVett’s absence. The Arizona transfer is chipping in 11.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 2.7 steals. He is hitting 50% of his threes, but has taken only 12 all season.
Bashir Ahmed adds 12.2 points and 4.9 rebounds.
Junior forward Marvin Clark II contributes 11.6 points and 4.4 rebounds. He has been St. John’s best three-point threat, knocking down 46% on just over four attempts per game.
Tariq Owens is averaging 7.9 points and 6.1 rebounds, and has been a major factor at the rim, averaging 3.6 blocks per game.
Taking care of the ball should be priority number one for Villanova. St. John’s has excelled at forcing turnovers. In addition to the effect of turnovers on the offensive team, it also gives St. John’s’ struggling offense an opportunity for some easy buckets.
St. John’s has been solid from the free-throw line, and preventing the Red Storm from getting to line will be key as well.
The ‘Cats will be expected to win, and it’s simply up to them to handle business. St. John’s will be desperate to get into the win column in the Big East, and the crowd should be hyped over a shot at the number one team in the country. ‘Nova must avoid a letdown following Wednesday’s big win over Xavier and show up and play Villanova basketball. If it does that, it should leave New York with the victory.