Round 2: Nova Hosts DePaul

The tone has changed at DePaul since the ‘Cats opened Big East play with a 103-85 win over the Blue Demons back in December. Entering that game, DePaul had just completed a 7-5 non-conference run and had hopes of beginning the long climb out of the Big East basement.

But the big loss to Villanova proved to be a sign of things to come, as the Blue Demons have won just three of their last 14 games, sitting in the Big East cellar with a 3-11 mark in conference play and 10-16 overall.

DePaul has put forth some good efforts in conference play (lost at Xavier by 5, lost to Creighton by 1, lost to St. John’s by 1, and lost at Seton Hall by 5) but have been unable to get over the hump.

During its respectable start to the season, DePaul relied on a sturdy defense, but that has gone out the window during conference play. The Blue Demons have seen their points allowed per game rise nearly six points, from 67.8 to 73.7.

Meanwhile, DePaul’s points per game scored have dropped slightly from 74.1 to 73.5. The Blue Demons continue to struggle shooting the ball, hitting 43% from the floor and 33% from three.

The ‘Nova offense had little trouble last time out against the Blue Demons, shooting 54% for the game, including 48% from deep. The ‘Cats had just six turnovers, while six ‘Cats scored double-figures.

The Villanova defense was solid for the most part, holding DePaul to 41% shooting and 26% from three. The Wildcats forced 17 DePaul turnovers. However, ‘Nova allowed 52 second-half points to a middling offensive team, the first red flag indicating that his iteration of the Wildcats might not be the type of defensive team Nova Nation has been used to.

Even with the second half outburst, ‘Nova was pretty good at both ends in the last meeting. But despite the fairly easy 18-point win, there were a couple areas where the ‘Cats were outperformed.

The most glaring one was on the glass. ‘Nova was outrebounded 50-32 and gave up an alarming 22 offensive rebounds. Fortunately, the ‘Cats were able to mitigate the damage from that disparity last time out, but those are the kind of numbers that will catch up with you eventually and that can help an overpowered team hang around.

DePaul also shot 10 more free throws than Villanova in the last meeting, netting nine more points from the charity stripe. Again, this is the type of thing that can help sustain a struggling offensive team and keep them in a game.

Villanova is understandably heavily favored, and frankly should win the game. But we’ve seen the Wildcats struggle a bit over the past two weeks, especially when the deep balls aren’t falling. If the ‘Cats find themselves struggling from deep and the rebounding and free throw numbers are similar to the last meeting of the teams, DePaul could hang around.

The ‘Cats will have to avoid a letdown after the big win over Xavier on Saturday. With just four regular season games remaining, it would be nice to see Villanova begin to establish a rhythm, and handling business against a bottom-feeding conference team following last Saturday’s huge road win would be a perfect recipe to get that rhythm going.

The game is on FS1 at 8:30.