After a successful non-conference run that saw the Wildcats go 12-0 and ascend to the top of the rankings, tonight they finally kick off Big East play when they head to DePaul.
This will mark the first conference game in DePaul’s shiny new Wintrust Arena.
While Villanova will have all the advantages on paper, ‘Nova fans remember the scare that the Blue Demons put on the Wildcats last season at the Pavilion, where Villanova escaped with a three-point victory.
DePaul enters the game sitting at 7-5, and for a program working hard to establish something it can build from, it will take the winning non-conference record as a milestone. But the route to that 7-5 mark doesn’t necessarily produce confidence going forward.
The Blue Demons faltered in each of their opportunities against a team from a “power” conference, losing to Notre Dame, Illinois, Michigan State, Oregon, and Northwestern. They lost those games by an average of 13.4 points, and sit at 0-5 against teams ranked in the top 100 in KenPom. For reference, Villanova is ranked number one in that metric.
All seven wins came against mid-or-low-major teams, including four teams that are ranked 300+ by KenPom. DePaul’s best win to date is over Illinois-Chicago, who rank 214.
Most of DePaul’s struggles come at the offensive end. The Blue Demons rank 202nd in points per game with 74.1. They are hitting just 43% of their shots from the floor, and 32% from three.
Digging deeper, we find that DePaul struggles especially off of cuts and when utilizing the roll man in the pick and roll. The Blue Demons have also been ineffective on the offensive glass and in isolation.
Interestingly, they have been decent when utilizing spot ups despite the below average shooting percentage, per Synergy Sports. They have also seen success in post-ups and hand-offs, but these plays make up a very small percentage of their offense.
DePaul has seen some success passing out of isolation, but have struggled at handling double-teams.
The Blue Demons have been inefficient around the basket (outside of post-ups) and with the jump shot, but have had success with the runner.
Max Strus, Tre’Darius McCallum, and Marin Maric have been DePaul’s most efficient offensive players. The Blue Demons have been most effective with Marin in the post and with Strus spotting up.
Strus leads the team in scoring with 17.3 points per game. McCallum, Maric, and Eli Cain are each in double figures as well.
Defensively, the Blue Demons have been better, allowing 67.8 points per game.
Strus and McCallum have been solid defending in isolation. Maric has been steady in the post. Cain, Strus, and Justin Roberts have done well defending the pick and roll. Roberts and Strus have done a good job with shooters.
Looking for places to attack, Brandon Cyrus and Jaylen Butz have been DePaul’s most ineffective defenders. Each has struggled particularly against spot-up shooters.
McCallum has struggled against the pick and roll ball handler as well as in the post.
Cyrus, Butz, and Roberts have struggled in isolation.
The Blue Demons have also struggled as a team against hand offs.
With ‘Nova’s strength in the backcourt and on the wing, Cyrus and Roberts are going to be forced into tough defensive matchups when they are on the court.
The athleticism of Omari Spellman and Eric Paschall, and their ability to play from the perimeter, could put Butz in a tough spot as well.
Although Strus and Cain are effective scorers, on the whole Villanova’s defense should present a challenge to a team that is struggling offensively. The combination of no dominant offensive threat and the fact that DePaul doesn’t have a truly elite three-point threat should make for a long night for the Blue Demons on that end of the floor.
DePaul will likely try to lean on its defense, attempting to turn defense into offense and trying to prevent getting into a shootout with Villanova. While the Blue Demon defense has been decent, it hasn’t been elite. Villanova’s patience and unselfishness should allow it to work to find the matchup, and ultimately the shot, that it wants.
The ‘Cats will be expected to open Big East play with a win, and if they play their game there is no reason why they shouldn’t succeed. DePaul will be hyped, and it will be interesting to see what the atmosphere will be like in its new building for the first Big East game and with the No. 1 team in the country visiting. Villanova will have to match the intensity, but it now has plenty of experience in taking an opponent’s best shot, ‘Nova will want to set the tone in the Big East, and last year’s scare is still in the back of its mind, so the ‘Cats should have no trouble getting energized.
The game is at 7:30 on CBSSN.