Tonight, Villanova travels to one of the more difficult places to play in the Big East, the Dunkin Donuts Center, to take on a desperate Providence team.

The Friars have had a rough go of things since their 20-point loss to Villanova three weeks ago. Entering that game, Providence was 14-6 and 5-2 in the Big East, just off the pace of ‘Nova and Xavier. The Friars were on a four-game winning streak that included victories over Xavier, Seton Hall, and Creighton.

Since the loss to ‘Nova, the Friars lost by 16 at Seton Hall, squeaked out a two-point win at Marquette, scored the last nine points of the game to escape Georgetown by four, and are coming off a disastrous 17-point home loss to DePaul. They are 7-5 in the Big East, trailing Xavier by three and a half games and ‘Nova by three.

The struggles are reflected in Providence’s numbers. Since the last meeting with ‘Nova, the Friars’ points per game, assists, and rebounds have all gone down, while their points allowed have gone up. Their KenPom numbers have gone from 61 offensively and 68 defensively to 85 and 71.

For an experienced team that should have been ready to play from the start of the season, things have not panned out. The Friars stumbled in their biggest non-conference tests, losing to Minnesota (which looks like a bad loss now), Rhode Island, and Houston. They also mixed in a bad loss to UMass. After stumbling to a 1-2 start in the Big East, Providence appeared to have righted the ship with those wins over Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall, but a home loss to DePaul is a major setback.

Providence has struggled mightily from beyond the arc in its last four games, connecting on just 18% of its threes over that span. Making the Friars beat you from deep could be one strategy the ‘Cats look to employ.

The free-throw line will be another key. A team already reliant on the charity stripe for offense has become even more so since the last meeting, as Providence is now getting 22.2% of its points from the line. Preventing trips to the line will further stymie an already struggling offense.

Turnovers will play a role as well. In the last meeting, ‘Nova forced 14 Providence turnovers and converted them into 19 points. The Friars are a different team when they keep the turnover margin close, and further limiting the offense by taking away possessions will be huge for ‘Nova. Providence averages over seven steals per game, so taking care of the ball and not giving the Friars easy buckets in transition will be important for ‘Nova offensively.

Despite a minus-11 margin on the glass in the last meeting, the ‘Cats were able to remain even in second-chance points. While getting beat on the glass proved inconsequential last time against Providence, ‘Nova will want to do a better job cleaning the glass tonight. Extra chances and resulting easy buckets could help the Friars hang around.

Finally, the presence, or lack thereof, of Eric Paschall could prove decisive. The ‘Cats have clearly missed Paschall, and he was instrumental in Villanova’s victory over Providence in the last meeting. He was responsible for seven-straight points in the first half as the ‘Nova offense was struggling to find its groove, and finished the game leading the team in scoring with 17. He also had five assists, four steals, three blocks and two rebounds. Paschall has returned to practice, opening the door for a potential return to the court Wednesday night.

Once again, Villanova holds virtually every statistical advantage. But the Wildcats will be heading to a hostile environment to take on a desperate team that is smarting from a bad loss. The Friars are clinging to NCAA tournament hopes while struggling to stay in the top half of the Big East, and a win over the No. 3 team in the country who is ahead of them in the conference standings would do wonders for their postseason prospects. Villanova also has to be careful not to look ahead to Saturday’s huge meeting with Xavier, a game that could potentially decide the Big East race. The ‘Cats will need to be ready to play for a full 40 minutes as they try to keep pace with Xavier in the conference and work to secure a number one seed in the NCAA tournament.

The game is on FS1 at 7.