Tonight, the Wildcats return home for the first time in what feels like forever following their three-game stretch on the road. They host a Providence team that is coming in hot.

The Friars enter the game with 14-6 record and sit at 5-2 in the Big East, just a half-game behind Villanova and Xavier. Providence has won four in a row, and that hot stretch has yielded the Friars’ best wins of the season so far (Xavier, Creighton, and Butler). Before the winning-streak, Providence had faltered in its biggest tests of the season (Minnesota, Rhode Island, Houston, Creighton).

This Providence team is a tough one to figure out. Returning a large, talented, and experienced core hasn’t translated to the kind of success you would expect, particularly in the early season, although that may be showing a little bit now. Things get even more perplexing when you dig into the numbers.

In traditional basketball metrics, the Friars don’t excel at anything. They score 76.9 points per game, give up 71.5 points per game, grab 36.2 rebounds per game, and dish out 14.9 assists per game. Their national ranks for those numbers: 109th, 156th, 160th, and 110th. They shoot 47% from the floor and 38% from three and commit 13 turnovers per game. All average to slightly above average numbers.

Ok, so maybe some advanced numbers will give us a clearer picture. Well, per KenPom, Providence is ranked 61st offensively and 68th defensively. Not terrible, but certainly not elite.

Still looking for answers, maybe the numbers behind Providences’ four-game winning streak hold the key. Over that stretch they have averaged 10.75 turnovers per game but are dead-even in turnover margin. They were minus-6 in rebound margin during that span. The Friars held those four opponents to 25.6% shooting from beyond the arc. Ok, now we might be getting somewhere.

Let’s extend things a little more and look at how Providence performed in some of those areas in its six losses. In those losses, the Friars averaged 14.5 turnovers and were minus-13 in that category. Providence also allowed those opponents to shoot 35.1% from three, still not a bad number, but much higher than what they’ve done over their recent run of success.

Now we’ve started to get a little bit of an idea of what makes Providence go. Protecting the ball and playing stout perimeter defense appear to be cornerstones of Friar victories. In KenPom, two specific areas also stood out. Providence is 15th in opponent’s 3PT%, so in addition to being a key for the Friars, it’s something they have done well throughout the season.

The other is the fact that they get 21.1% of their points from the free throw line. While they don’t shoot a great percentage from the line (69.8), they have done a good job at getting to the line. Comparing the six losses with the four-game winning streak backs up the importance of the line to Providence. In the six losses, the Friars averaged 13.7 free throws made and shot 66.3%. During the four-game winnings streak, they’ve averaged 17 free throws made and shot 82.1%.

Offensively, the Friars have been decent spotting up. While they aren’t a great rebounding team, they have been able to score on offensive rebounds when they grab them. Providence has also done well off screens and in isolation.

Defensively, Providence has been vulnerable to spot ups, in transition, on the offensive glass, and in the post. As we’ve already seen, they have been good defending the perimeter.

Rodney Bullock leads the way with 16.8 points and 6.8 rebounds.

Alpha Diallo adds 11.9 points and 5.9 rebounds, and is coming off a 21-point, 10 rebound effort in the win over Creighton. He has struggled from three, hitting just 21%.

Kyron Cartwright chips in 11.6 points, 6.4 assists, and 3.1 rebounds. He has hit 44% of his threes.

Jalen Lindsey rounds out the double figure scorers for Providence with 10.1 points. He has been the Friars’ best three-point shooter at 48%.

If the threes are going down for Villanova, it will be a great sign. One of the few things Providence has been able to hang its hat on this season is perimeter defense, and they become much more dangerous when holding opponents under 30% from deep.

Turnovers will be another area to watch. When Providence is performing well and getting results, it has been taking care of the ball. If ‘Nova can force turnovers, it will be tough for the Friars to keep up.

Another key will be keeping the Friars off the line. Despite the 69.8% season average, they have knocked down 90+ percent twice over the last four games, all wins. They have relied on free throws to generate offense and keeping them off the line goes a long way to limiting them offensively.

‘Nova has the edge in virtually every statistical category and will be expected to win the game. But Providence is coming in hot with three of the four wins in their current winning streak coming against likely NCAA tournament teams. The Friars currently find themselves in a precarious position in terms of an NCAA berth, but their recent play has them trending in the right direction and a road win over the No. 1 ranked team is the type of thing that could put them over the top on Selection Sunday. The Wildcats need to be ready.

The game is on FS1 at 6:30.