Published Dec 1, 2023
Three concerns from loss to St. Joe's
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
Publisher
Twitter
@JoshNaso

After a spectacular run through three quality opponents en route to the Battle 4 Atlantis championship, Villanova crashed back to Earth on Wednesday in a disappointing 13-point loss to St. Joe’s. Here are three concerns from the loss.

Turnovers

There are plenty of factors that played a role in the loss, but perhaps none were more important, or more concerning, than turnovers. Villanova had 17 giveaways Wednesday night, leading to 28 points for St. Joe’s. In the first half, ‘Nova turned it over 11 times, leading to 16 points for the Hawks. It was a big reason St. Joe’s was able to build an eight-point advantage, one that Villanova would be unable to overcome.

In addition to the direct points from the turnovers, the miscues had ripple effects that made things more difficult for the Wildcats on both ends of the floor. Obviously, giveaways lead to missed opportunities on offense. Perhaps more importantly, it puts much more pressure on the defense and allows the opponent to find easier offense. With the help of easy buckets and easier possessions as a result of Villanova not being able to get the defense set up, St. Joe’s shot 60.7% in the first half, 52.2% in the second half and 56.9% for the game, including 51.9% from three. The inability to take care of the ball compounded other issues for Villanova at both ends of the floor.

Adding to the concern is the fact that it’s so uncharacteristic for Villanova to be so careless with the ball. Protecting the ball has been a staple of the program and has played a significant role in the program’s success. There’s no indication we’re seeing a trend here, but the issue led to a lot of the problems Villanova had Wednesday night.

Offensive struggles against the zone

Much like fellow Big Five foe Penn did in Villanova’s other loss this season, St. Joe’s relied heavily on a zone defense, and it gave the Wildcats fits.

In addition to the turnovers, Villanova shot just 39.3% overall for the game and 27% from three. The Wildcats had a few possessions where they were able to decipher the zone, most notably by using a two-man game with Brendan Hausen and Eric Dixon. On these possessions, Dixon was too much for his man and was able to score against single coverage or kick it out to Hausen for a three if the zone sagged onto him. The Hawks’ zone got noticeably misshapen during these possessions and Villanova ended up with excellent shots. The ‘Cats also had some success with getting the ball into the middle of the zone around the free throw line. But the use of these tactics was seemingly few and far between, and far too often the offense was incredibly stagnant with one player dribbling and four guys standing around. The key to beating a zone is making it move and forcing the defenders to make decisions. Standing still accomplishes neither and makes things incredibly easy for the defenders.

The fact that this is the second time an inferior opponent has used to zone to earn an upset victory over Villanova is concerning, and you have to think future opponents have taken notice. It’s something the Wildcats are going to have to figure out.

Inconsistency

Inconsistency has been a significant issue for the Wildcats through the first month of the season. In the season-opening win over American, Villanova looked every bit the team it was expected to be. Against Penn, the ‘Cats looked like the complete opposite of the team we saw against American. They rebounded in a big way at the Battle 4 Atlantis, defeating three quality opponents and looking like a team that could play with anyone in the country. And then they returned and promptly laid an egg, losing a game by 13 points that they were favored to win by double-digits.

There’s still plenty of time to get this ironed out, and it’s an issue you’d much rather have present itself in the first month of the season than suddenly appear at the end. But through eight games, Villanova looks to be a team with a high ceiling and a low floor, and that’s a combination that can lead to resume issues come March.

Consistency from night-to-night and opponent-to-opponent will be something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.