There’s no way around it, Villanova suffered a bad loss Wednesday night, falling 90-80 to Columbia at the Pavilion. The Lions entered the game ranked No. 217 in KenPom, and analytics sites and sportsbooks had the Wildcats pegged at 15–20-point favorites. Here’s a look at the good, the bad and the ugly from the shocking defeat.
Good
Eric Dixon
Dixon made his season debut after serving a one-game suspension, and he did not disappoint. Dixon came out of the gate firing, scoring Villanova’s first seven points and 12 of its first 15. By the end of the night, Dixon had put up 33 points, six rebounds, two assists and three steals while shooting 11-16 overall, 5-7 from three and 6-6 from the line.
Offensive rebounding
The ‘Cats piled up 13 offensive rebounds, securing 39.4% of their offensive rebound opportunities. They were able to convert those extra opportunities into 18 second chance points, building an 18-7 advantage in that category.
Free throw shooting
On one hand, this feels like a bit of a reach. Who cares about good free throw shooting in a 10-point loss? And maybe it is. I mean, we have to find something good to take from the game. But on the other hand, it’s legit. Why? One, because the free throw shooting was very good (15-17, 88.2%). And two, because this has become a trend at Villanova, which is not only encouraging for the long-term, but also could end up being an important factor if this team manages to find its footing, get on track and make a push at meeting expectations this season.
Bad
Jordan Longino’s shooting woes
A season that began with a lot of hope after Longino finally had a healthy offseason has not delivered on that promise so far. After a dismal 3-14 showing against Lafayette that included a 0-5 mark from three, Longino connected on just 4-13 attempts on Wednesday (3-9 from three). He still managed 14 points, and to his credit, he has continued to try to find other ways to make a positive impact, averaging four assists, three rebounds and 1.5 steals through two games. He’s also drawn a team-high 12 fouls. But Villanova needs the efficiency to be better, and the concern is magnified by the fact that Longino demonstrated elite shooting prowess at the high school level.
Non-Brickus minutes
Brickus has done a fantastic job facilitating the offense through two games for Villanova. Unfortunately, no one has stepped up in support of that role, which was painfully obvious on Wednesday night. While Brickus had eight assists and had the offense running smoothly against Columbia, things seemingly grinded to a halt when he was off the floor. Only four other Wildcats recorded an assist (none more than three), and two Wildcats (Longino, Wooga Poplar) had negative assist-to-turnover ratios. Without Brickus on the floor, the offense looked disjointed and stagnant. He obviously can’t play 40 minutes a game for 30 games, so Villanova is going to have to figure out how to keep the offense functioning when he sits.
Enoch Boakye
After posting a double-double in a stellar Villanova debut, Boakye was essentially invisible Wednesday night. He took just one shot attempt, which he missed. He managed two points on a pair of made free throws, and he chipped in six rebounds, a steal and a block. But more concerning than the stats is his overall impact. On Monday against Lafayette, Boakye was constantly announcing his presence. Whether it was a dunk, or a block, or a rebound, or a hustle play or just a smart defensive play, you were consistently noticing him. That wasn’t the case Wednesday, and Columbia’s 36 points in the paint and 70% shooting on two-point attempts further highlight the point. Villanova doesn’t need Boakye to consistently stuff the stat sheet, but it does need him to be more impactful than he was Wednesday night.
The ugly
Defense, turnovers
These are kind of intertwined, so we’ll address them together. But where to start?
Let’s start with the turnovers. Villanova had 12 on Wednesday, pushing their season total to 29. The Wildcats have turned the ball over on 21.4% of their possessions, ranking them 204th out of 364 D1 teams. Over the last 10 years or so, Villanova has consistently been ranked in the top 50-75 in this metric, and sometimes much better. And that’s not just leftovers from the Jay Wright era, either. In Kyle Neptune’s two seasons at the helm, the ‘Cats posted turnover percentages of 15.5% (29th) and 14.7% (40th).
Just as concerning as the jump in turnovers is the way in which Columbia was able to turn them into points. The Lions piled up 21 points off ‘Nova miscues Wednesday night. That puts you in a tough spot, and is an issue that compounds itself as you not only cost yourself a possession but give your opponent an extra, usually easy, one. Which leads us to our next point: transition defense.
With the help of the turnovers, Columbia managed a whopping 27 fast break points. To say that allowing your opponent to score nearly a third of its points on the fast break is unsustainable would be a laughable understatement. Turnovers and transition points make things so much easier for teams that can take advantage of them, and that is something good teams usually do. The fact that Villanova was so soundly outperformed in these categories is a major concern. Which brings us to our final point: the defense as a whole.
Now, a large part of Columbia’s staggering efficiency (90 points on 54 shots, 1.385 points per possession, scoring on 60% of possessions, 70% on two-point attempts) can be attributed to the turnovers and the fast breaks.
But to write off the entire defensive showing as a product of turnovers would be a mistake.
There were countless breakdowns and lapses in the half court, including getting beat multiple times on back-door cuts. The defense simply wasn’t as connected or active as it was on Monday night, and Columbia made Villanova pay for that. While the Lions did manage 81 points in their first game of the season, that was against Loyola Maryland, and Columbia entered the Villanova game ranked 165th in offensive efficiency, per KenPom. A middling offensive team shouldn’t be able to do to Villanova what Columbia did, turnovers and fast breaks or not.