Villanova suffered its second sub-100 KenPom loss of the season Tuesday night, falling to rival St. Joe’s 83-76. Here is the good, the bad and the ugly from another debilitating loss.
The good
Multiple runs of 9-0 or better
Villanova went on several significant runs Tuesday night, including a 9-0 push and a 10-0 push. The fact that the Wildcats were able to get both the consistent stops and buckets necessary to achieve such runs is an encouraging sign. Further, large runs like that are generally carry a strong correlation with winning. Although the ‘Cats were unable to secure the victory, and that fact may raise further questions, statistically speaking they will win more than they lose when achieving such runs. Overall, this was a good sign for Villanova.
Perseverance
Villanova looked dead in the water as St. Joe’s went on its game-changing 15-0 run in the second half. Such a run is a devastating blow, and Villanova could have very well folded at that point. Instead, the Wildcats scored 18 of the next 24 points and climbed all the way back into the lead. While they still came up short in the end, that response and resiliency from Villanova was laudable and could come in handy if the ‘Cats are able to right the ship and remain in contention this season.
The bad
The rotation
Player usage was questionable on Tuesday night. Four Wildcats (Eric Dixon, Jhamir Brickus, Wooga Poplar, Jordan Longino) played 31+ minutes. No other Wildcat played more than 17 minutes and four played 12 minutes or less. Enoch Boakye played just 7:26. The big man picked up his second foul four minutes into the game and was understandably subbed out. But then he played just over three minutes out of the remaining 36. Why? Especially as Rasheer Flemming was having a field day. Meanwhile, Nnanna Njoku played just 10:26, leaving Dixon as the small-ball big for long stretches (and also running him into the ground with 37:51 playing time). It was clear ‘Nova needed Dixon on the floor, so it’s not outrageous he logged so many minutes. But it’s also not shocking that Villanova ran out of gas over the last five minutes or so, and the management of the rotation certainly raised some questions.
The ugly
Allowing St. Joe’s to thrive in areas of the game in which it had previously struggled
Forcing turnovers
Through it’s first two games, St. Joe’s had forced 24 turnovers. Villanova committed 16 on Tuesday night, which St. Joe’s turned into 16 points. The miscues also helped the Hawks to 21 fast break points. Turnovers and fast break points have been issues in each of Villanova’s losses this season, and are particularly damaging when happening against a team that doesn’t excel in those areas.
Committing (or not committing) turnovers
‘Nova wasn’t just generous in giving the ball away. It also didn’t take it from the Hawks very often. St. Joe’s entered the game turning the ball over on 21.4% of its possessions, piling up 30 giveaways across its first two games. Villanova managed to force just 10 miscues from the Hawks.
Three-point shooting
St. Joe’s three-point shooting for the game doesn’t look particularly impressive (33.3%). But when you consider the fact that the Hawks entered the game shooting just 28.8% for the season, things look a bit worse for the ‘Cats. And even more so when you see that St. Joe’s made seven threes in the first half at a 41.2% clip. The defense overall wasn’t good enough, but the three-point defense in particular allowed St. Joe’s to perform much better than its season average and build an advantage (albeit slight at +3) in an area that you would have been comfortable predicting as an edge for ‘Nova entering the game.
Offensive rebounding
Statistically ‘Nova didn’t do horrible in this category. St. Joe’s managed seven offensive rebounds and pulled down 20.6% of its offensive rebound opportunities, slightly below its season average (22.4%). But Villanova allowed one of those offensive rebounds and the most inopportune time, trailing by three with a minute to go. The play ultimately led to two FTs for St. Joe’s, both of which were converted to push Villanova’s deficit to five.
It’s just very difficult to win when you allow an opponent to turn weaknesses into strengths and build advantages in areas where you should have the edge. Villanova did that across multiple fronts Tuesday night.
