Villanova enters a huge Big East matchup with a cloud over its head. The team is coming off a terrible loss to a sub-.500 St. John’s team and continues to battle the injury bug with Eric Paschall dealing with a concussion.
Paschall’s absence was felt in a big way on Wednesday against St. John’s and early reports indicate that he will miss Saturday’s game as well. Unless something drastically changes in the next 18 hours, Villanova will take on a Butler team that seems to have its number down two starters.
Speaking of having Villanova’s number, the Bulldogs are now responsible for four of the last seven Villanova losses. Butler beat ‘Nova twice a season ago and will look to repeat that feat on Saturday. The Bulldogs join Seton Hall as the only teams to provide any real resistance to Villanova’s recent Big East dominance.
The loss to Butler earlier this season wasn’t all Villanova’s fault. The Bulldogs played a near-perfect game offensively. For the season, Butler shoots 48% from the floor and 36% from three. Against ‘Nova last time out, those numbers were 60% and 68%. Butler ran its offense flawlessly, but it’s hard to imagine they approach those kind of shooting numbers again.
While the hot shooting may have been a fluke, the same can’t be said for Butler’s recent success over the ‘Cats. The reality is Butler simply gives Villanova trouble, and now Villanova has to face that team likely down two starters. It’s hard not to feel that the Wildcats are in very real danger of losing consecutive games for the first time in forever.
So what do the ‘Cats need to do to avoid those consecutive losses and extract some revenge on Butler?
It starts with defense. There have been times this season where the ‘Nova defense looks like the typical Villanova defense under Jay Wright, and there have been times where it looks completely lost. For much of the first Butler game it was the latter.
While part of the issue last time against Butler was the Bulldogs’ hot shooting, the looks that Butler was getting played a huge role in the shooting success. Early in the game, Villanova was confused by Butler’s motion and was getting punished by dribble penetration. This led to a tidal wave of open looks, which the Bulldogs promptly knocked down.
As ‘Nova attempted to adjust and cut off the three-point barrage, Butler took advantage of the over-extended defense to attack the back line with cutters.
While it’s unlikely that Butler again shoots at such a high percentage, the schemes will be the same and ‘Nova must do a better job counteracting them. The Wildcats need to challenge shooters on the perimeter, be disciplined in the back, and most importantly they need to stop dribble-penetration.
Paul Jorgensen and Sean McDermott shot a combined 6-10 from three in the last meeting. While Kelan Martin and Kamar Baldwin garner much of the attention offensively, the ‘Cats can’t ignore Jorgensen and McDermott and let them provide such a boost to the big two.
Defensive discipline will be a factor as well. In the last meeting, Butler outscored ‘Nova by nine at the free-throw stripe, doubling ‘Nova in attempts 18-9. Not fouling while generating trips to the line of their own is one way the ‘Cats can change what happened the last time these teams met.
One area Villanova had success in in the last meeting was turnovers. The ‘Cats forced 13 Butler giveaways while only committing four of their own. Unfortunately, many of those came after the Bulldogs had built a comfortable lead and it was too late. However, provided Butler isn’t shooting the lights out again, turnovers are an area that can provide a ‘Nova advantage.
Rebounding will be key as well. Butler is not a great rebounding team, averaging 34.6 per game. But in the first meeting this season, the Bulldogs dominated the glass, grabbing 37 rebounds to Villanova’s 26. The ‘Cats can’t afford to let Butler turn a relative weakness into a strength.
The offense was solid in the last Butler game. The ‘Cats did a good job running the offense and not getting panicked as Butler built a lead. But against St. John’s, the offense looked disjointed as the ‘Cats tried to feel their way through the absences of both Paschall and Phil Booth. ‘Nova too easily settled for threes and difficult shots. Hopefully with a game of experience under their belt and with a couple of days to prepare for a potential Paschall absence, the Wildcats will show more continuity on the offensive end.
If Paschall does in fact miss the game, it will be interesting to see who Wright inserts into the starting lineup. On Wednesday, it was Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree. It was an understandable decision, as Cosby-Roundtree was the only option that could match Paschall’s size and considering Wright had very little time to consider his decision. But it proved to be problematic. One of Paschall’s biggest strengths is his versatility. Opponents must defend him out to the three-point line, and he has the athleticism and ball-handling skills to attack the basket. Cosby-Roundtree’s offensive game is limited to the paint at this point in his career, and the St. John’s defense took advantage of this fact, making things much more difficult for the rest of the Wildcats.
Meanwhile Collin Gillespie took advantage of the extra minutes to have one of the best games of his young career. While his insertion into the starting lineup would create some size issues, it would also put much less strain on the offensive attack. Having seen the results of Paschall’s absence in the St. John’s game and with more time to analyze those results, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gillespie get the nod on Saturday.
Between the potential absence of Paschall and Butler’s recent track record against the Wildcats, there is some very real concern heading into Saturday’s game. But ‘Nova knows what it has to do, knows the situation it is in, and will be hungry for revenge. It promises to be a big test for the Wildcats, and it will be interesting to see how they respond.
The game is at noon on Fox.
