Villanova is set to kick off its quest for a national championship on Friday as the 2 seed in the South Region. Without getting ahead of ourselves and making assumptions about who will advance, let’s just take a general look at the bracket to get a sense for what a potential run through the region would look like for the Wildcats.
Let’s start with a look at the KenPom and Haslametrics numbers for each team in the bracket.
1 Arizona No. 2 in KenPom (5th offense, 20th defense), No. 2 in Haslametrics (6th offense, 13th defense) 2 Villanova No. 11 in KP (8th offense, 28th defense), No. 8 in Haslametrics (8th offense, 17th defense) 3 Tennessee No. 7 in KP (36th offense, 3rd defense), No. 11 in Haslametrics (37th offense, 2nd defense) 4 Illinois No. 17 in KP (23rd offense, 30th defense), No. 15 in Haslametrics (18th offense, 29th defense) 5 Houston No. 4 in KP (10th offense, 11th defense), No. 9 in Haslametrics (13th offense, 10th defense) 6 Colorado St. No. 31 in KP (20th offense, 83rd defense), No. 32 in Haslametrics (24th offense, 54th def.) 7 Ohio St. No. 32 in KP (13th offense, 131st defense), No. 36 in Haslametrics (11th offense, 132nd defense) 8 Seton Hall No. 35 in KP (75th offense, 26th defense), No. 38 in Haslametrics (65th offense, 36th defense) 9 TCU No. 38 in KP (80th in offense, 24th defense), No. 44 in Haslametrics (62nd offense, 31st defense) 10 Loyola Chicago No. 24 in KP (42nd offense, 22nd defense), No. 20 in Haslametrics (43rd off., 19th def.) 11 Michigan No. 33 in KP (19th offense, 91st defense), No. 26 in Haslametrics (17th offense, 71st defense) 12 UAB No. 46 in KP (28th offense, 89th defense), No. 56 in Haslametrics (36th offense, 93rd defense) 13 Chattanooga No. 72 in KP (58th offense, 95th defense), No. 92 in Haslametrics (85th off., 78th def.) 14 Longwood No. 144 in KP (115th offense, 191st defense), No. 152 in Haslametrics (158th off., 186th def.) 15 Delaware No. 145 in KP (100th offense, 212th defense), No. 128 in Haslametrics (104th off., 201st def.) 16 Wright St (No. 182 in KP, No. 174 Haslametrics)/Bryant (No. 183 in KP, No. 185 in Haslametrics)
So, what can we take from this information?
One, while the region presents a reasonable path for Villanova, it won’t be a cake walk. The South is tied with the East for the most KenPom top 50 teams (12) and trails only the East in average KenPom ranking of the top four seeds (7.5 East, 9.25 South), top six seeds (10.2 East, 12 South) and top eight seeds (14.6 East, 17.4 South).
Two, and this was obvious as soon as the brackets were released, Tennessee is under-seeded as a 3. As a potential Sweet 16 opponent for Villanova, that’s less than ideal. Of course, Villanova beat Tennessee handily in November, but that was a long time ago.
Another thing that stands out is another pair of mis-seeded teams: 5 Houston and 10 Loyola Chicago. The metrics like Houston as a 2 seed, making the Cougars a dangerous 5. However, that wouldn’t be Villanova’s problem until the Elite 8. Loyola Chicago, on the other hand, could potentially be Villanova’s opponent in the Round of 32. The metrics indicate the Ramblers should be closer to a 6, which would indicate a potential Villanova-Loyola Chicago matchup is closer to a Sweet 16 game than one in the Round of 32.
Michigan’s metrics also indicate a bit of under-seeding, but the Wolverines’ 17-14 record and the fact that they haven’t won consecutive games since early February pour a little cold water on ideas of a deep run. Of course it could happen, and the discrepancy between seed and metrics is worth noting, but the eye test and record support the seeding.
Illinois is an interesting team as well. When playing at its best, Illinois is a legitimate Final Four contender. Interestingly, the Illini played Arizona to within four points in a December head-to-head matchup. However, they also have some head-scratchers on the resume, and it wouldn’t be particularly shocking if they fell victim to a 4-13 upset. If they get past Chattanooga and Houston takes care of UAB, we have a fascinating 4-5 matchup in the Round of 32. The Illini are a complete wild card here.
The region is tilted slightly towards offensive prowess. There are six top 20 KenPom offenses in the region and seeds 1-15 (we left out the play-in game 16s to not skew the math) have an average offensive ranking of 42.1. Meanwhile, there are three top 20 defensive teams (although there’s three that just missed the mark) and the 1-15 seeds have an average defensive ranking of 70.4. Arizona and Houston are the only teams ranking in top 20 on both sides of the ball, with Villanova, Tennessee and Illinois coming close. Villanova joins the pair when using the Haslametrics rankings.
It's an interesting bracket that should present a lot of interesting matchups and plenty of drama.
We’ll have a more detailed look at Delaware, Villanova’s opening opponent, on Thursday.
