Published Mar 21, 2018
Let's Dance: West Virginia
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
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The ‘Cats will meet an old Big East foe on Friday in the Sweet 16 when they take on West Virginia.

The schools haven’t met since 2011 and Jay Wright’s Wildcats are 3-3 against Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers.

The Mountaineers have compiled a 26-10 record so far this season, including 11-7 in the hyper-competitive Big 12, finishing two games back of Kansas. In the NCAA tournament they easily dispatched of Murray State and Marshall.

Throughout the season West Virginia secured some quality wins over teams such as Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas and Virginia. The Mountaineers worst loss came to Iowa State, and was the only loss to a team ranked lower than 55 by KenPom.

Speaking of KenPom, West Virginia is currently ranked 11 in that metric (11 in offense, 42 in defense).

Any discussion of West Virginia starts on the defensive end and with the “Press Virginia” moniker. We talked with Keenan Cummings from Rivals’ West Virginia site for some insight on the Mountaineers, and he had this to say about this year’s iteration of Press Virginia. “This is not nearly the same level of press that it had been the last couple of years with the Cleveland State model where the top of the press was responsible for guarding the inbound pass, communicating with teammates and taking the right angles.” Cummings explained that in this look the guards would look to force the ball into easily trappable spots. He continued, “This is more of a man press look but that doesn’t mean there isn’t relentless pressure on the ball as the goal of West Virginia is to speed the other team up and make them uncomfortable. This team isn’t as athletic as some of the ones in the past, but they can still create plenty of issues and throw several looks at them.” It will be interesting to see how ‘Nova responds, as the looks it gets from West Virginia will be unlike things it has seen this year and very few teams have been able to speed the Wildcats up.

What can Villanova expect once the press is broken and West Virginia settles into its half-court defense? Cummings had this to say: “West Virginia is primarily a man team that will trap and make things difficult for opponents. Like in the past they have a lot of versatile athletes that can switch screens and defend multiple positions. They also have some zone looks as well and even used a 1-2-1-1 zone pressure against Marshall to confuse them and some amoeba at times as well. The 1-3-1 is also in the back pocket but it hasn’t been as effective this year when used. But the Mountaineers are long, aggressive, and pressure the ball. Once again, making teams uncomfortable is the goal.” Per Synergy Sports, the Mountaineers have played man 90.5% of the time this season.

While this year’s West Virginia defense may not be the overwhelming force it has been in the past, it is still effective. The Mountaineers gave up 69 points per game this season and have excelled at creating turnovers. The have forced a turnover on 23.4% of possessions, the second-best mark in the country. Villanova has done a great job not getting rattled throughout the season and has the 11th-best turnover rate in the country at 14.7%. This battle of strengths should be fascinating to watch play out, and whichever team does a better job of exerting themselves in this area will have a leg up in this game.

While the defense gets the headlines at West Virginia, the Mountaineers have been very good offensively this season. This is evidenced by their No. 11 ranking in offensive efficiency and 80.2 points per game. Four Mountaineers average double-figures and two more average at least 8.7 points per game. But it all starts with one of the most underrated players in the country, Jevon Carter, and his 17.4 points and 6.6 assists per game.

Carter has averaged 24.5 points per game in the first two NCAA tournament games, shooting 19-35 from the field in the process.

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We asked Cummings what to expect from the Mountaineers offensively. “It runs through Carter, but West Virginia plays inside-out for the most part and always attacks the glass. The Mountaineers have shot over 50% in both games in this tournament and a lot of that has been shot selection and scoring at the basket. The Mountaineers are better shooting the three than they’ve been in recent years and this is the best free-throw shooting team in school history. But they’re most comfortable when they’re getting more shot opportunities than their opponents.”

West Virginia is shooting 43.8% for the season and 35.7% from three. They knock down 76.7% form the line. The Mountaineers grab 38 rebounds a game, averaging 14 offensive rebounds. They grab 37% of offensive rebound opportunities, fifth-best in the nation.

While Carter makes the Mountaineers go, who else should ‘Nova be aware of? Cummings noted that West Virginia is 9-0 this season when at least four players reach double figures. “Senior Daxter Miles (12.8 ppg) and junior Esa Ahmad (10.2 ppg) are the two x-factors in the starting lineup and when they play well West Virginia is tough to beat. The bench is productive, but often it’s a different player doing the work from game to game. They’ll play as many as 11.”

Sagaba Konate, a ferocious rim protector who averages 3.2 blocks per game, also chips in 10.8 points. Lamont west adds 9.5, James Bolden 8.7, Teddy Allen 6.5 and Wesley Harris 5.5.

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For the Wildcats offensively, handling the press is clearly priority number one. If they can do that, they have the athletes and the shooters to punish the Mountaineers. Opponents have shot 37.5% from three against West Virginia, and Villanova’s plethora of deep threats must take advantage.

It will be interesting to see how the Wildcats attack Konate. Teams that have elected to take it at him have found little success, but you don’t want to completely concede the area around the basket and trying to get him in foul trouble is an option. More likely, the ‘Cats will use the three-point shooting ability of their bigs to pull Konate away from the basket and open things up. In this scenario, it will be interesting to see how West Virginia responds.

It will also be interesting to see how ‘Nova approaches the game defensively. They could elect to try to take away Carter and make the rest of the roster beat them. Or they could try to slow the rest of the rotation and force Carter to carry the load himself.

Jevon Carter excels defensively as well and will look to be a pest on the ball. He likes to use his quick hands to be disruptive and averages three steals per game. His pressure on the ball will combine with the press in an attempt to disrupt Villanova’s offensive flow.

So how will the game shake out? Here’s Cummings’ take: “This is going to be a tough matchup for West Virginia for a variety of reasons, but Villanova has experienced guard play and if it is able to break through the press should find quality looks. If they make those shots, it’s going to be hard for the Mountaineers to keep pace unless they can either win the halfcourt or force the Wildcats into turnovers or dominate on the glass. The Mountaineers are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation and if they can manufacture more shots and speed Villanova up things could get interesting here.”

We tend to agree with Cummings’ assessment. Turnovers and rebounding scream at you as keys to this game. If the West Virginia press is effective and forces Villanova turnovers, the game tilts in favor of the Mountaineers. Conversely, if the ‘Cats consistently break/beat the press, they should find plenty of good looks and opportunities to punish West Virginia. Likewise, if West Virginia establishes an advantage on the offensive glass, an ability to win the game increases. ‘Nova will need a strong team rebounding effort.

This game presents a truly interesting matchup. Villanova has done well to remain poised throughout the season and has not allowed teams to speed them up. West Virginia thrives on disruption and frustration. Jevon Carter is one of the best two-way players in the country, while Jalen Brunson is one of the most steady, unflappable point guards. The game is a fascinating clash of strength on strength and should produce quite a chess match between Jay Wright and Bob Huggins.

The teams will battle for a spot in the Elite 8 on Friday night at 7:27 on TBS.