Villanova kicks off the 2018-19 NCAA tournament with a much different feel than a season ago. There’s no #1 seed, no dominant regular season, and no quartet of players about to head to the NBA. Instead of being one of the favorites to reach the Final Four and cut down the nets, the Wildcats begin this tournament run surrounded by uncertainty.

The opinions on what this tournament journey will bring for the ‘Cats vary widely, with a wide range of outcomes that wouldn’t produce a whole lot of surprise. Over the course of the season, the team has at times looked like it can play with anyone in the country while at other times looking like getting even a single win in the tournament would be a major accomplishment. And so, we’re all left to wait and see which Villanova team hits the court Thursday night.

The opponent will be the Saint Mary’s Gaels, winners of the WCC tournament that took down top-ranked Gonzaga in the final. The Gaels would have almost certainly been left out of the Big Dance if not for that 60-47 win over the Bulldogs.

Saint Mary’s won that game with its defense, holding Gonzaga’s #1 KenPom offense to those 47 points on 37.5 percent shooting and 11.8 percent from 3. The Gaels were +7 on the boards and committed just 11 turnovers. It was an impressive effort, but was it an aberration?

The Gaels had lost twice to the Bulldogs in the regular season, including a 48-point beat down. Including the conference title game win against Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s was just 2-6 against teams that made the NCAA tournament.

So, what can we expect from the Gaels?

One thing is for certain: We should expect things to be SLOW.

‘Nova doesn’t light the world on fire with its pace, but Saint Mary’s was the seventh slowest team in all of Division 1 this season. The Gaels will try to keep the game at a snail’s pace as they look to take advantage of their efficient offense.

Saint Mary’s was ranked 21 in KenPom in offensive efficiency, methodically working for good looks. The Gaels shoot 52.4 percent from 2-point range and 37.8 percent from 3. Only 35 percent of their field goal attempts come from 3, although their top three scorers all shoot better than 40 percent from deep, so they have some players capable of hurting you from beyond the arc.

Jordan Ford leads the way with 21.3 points per game, connecting on 42.3 percent from deep. Malik Fitts adds 15.3 points and 7.6 rebounds. He connects on 40.3 percent from 3. Tanner Krebs chips in 8.9 points while knocking down 40.5 percent of his 3’s. Jordan Hunter and Tommy Kuhse contribute 7.9 and 6.2 points respectively. Elijah Thomas (4.2 ppg), Matthias Tass (3.5), and Dan Fotu (2.9) round out the Gaels averaging double-digit minutes per game.

Ford is a 6-1 junior, Fitts is a 6-8 sophomore, and Krebs is a 6-6 junior. Hunter provides size and experience as a 6-10 senior, while Tass checks in at 6-10 as well, but he is only a freshman. Thomas (6-5) and Kuhse (6-2) are both sophomores, while Fotu is a 6-7 freshman. Jock Perry is 7-1, but he averages just 5.6 minutes per game.

Despite having some decent size, Saint Mary’s wasn’t a dominant rebounding team, averaging 34.7 per game. Villanova grabs 35.4 per game.

The Gaels rank in the 91st percentile with 0.979 points per possession, per Synergy Sports. In the play types that Synergy tracks, Saint Mary’s rank “good,” “very good,” or “excellent” in every category except offensive rebounds and in the post. They have excelled utilizing the pick and roll ballhandler and using screens and have been very good using cuts and hand offs. Although they don’t push the pace often, they have been effective when they choose to do so.

For the Wildcats defensively, they need to be prepared to defend long possessions. The Gaels won’t rush, and they are comfortable operating late in the shot clock. The ‘Cats need to be connected defensively and communicate.

Saint Mary’s pace and efficiency will also place a premium on rebounding in this game. Possessions will likely be limited, so keeping the Gaels to one opportunity per offensive trip and earning second opportunities on offense will be huge. In addition, there is almost nothing more deflating than playing good defense for 25+ seconds and getting a stop only to give up an offensive rebound.

Obviously, turnovers become a key as well when possessions are limited. Saint Mary’s doesn’t generate a ton of turnovers on defense, but it takes care of the ball reasonably well. If either team can eke out a few extra possessions by winning the turnover battle, it could be a huge advantage.

Ford, Fitts, Krebs, and Hunter are the most efficient Gaels, each averaging over a point per possession and making up 68 percent of the Saint Mary’s offense. Kuhse, Tass, and Thomas account for 22 percent of the offense, but each rank only “average” or “below average” in terms of efficiency.

Expecting a lot of screening action for Ford and Fitts. Ford also generates a ton of offense as the P&R ballhandler. Hunter, Tass, and Ford have had some success as cutters, while Ford, Krebs, and Fitts have been the most efficient shooters. Fitts has been effective in isolation.

Defensively, Saint Mary’s hasn’t been quite as good, ranking 55 in KenPom and landing in the 54th percentile with 0.887 points per possession.

The Gaels have been good defending shooters, which adds some intrigue to the matchup with ‘Nova. But they have struggled to defend the pick and roll ballhandler, screens, hand offs, cuts, and isolations. They have also struggled defending inbounds plays and after time outs. Another positive for Villanova is St. Mary’s has been poor when pressing.

Krebs, Tass, and Hunter have been the best individual defenders, while Fitts, Ford, and Kuhse have been the poorest.

We’ve already mentioned the importance of rebounding and turnovers, and those are things we’ll be keeping a close eye on.

In addition, we’ll be watching the 3-point line. We know Villanova is going to shoot a lot of 3’s, and Saint Mary’s defends the 3 well. While the Gaels don’t shoot a lot of 3’s, they have a few effective shooters. Villanova’s love of the 3 combined with the Gaels' relative aversion to it, combined with the Gaels’ competent shooters and solid perimeter defense makes for a point of interest. If one team can open an advantage from deep, it would be huge.

Pace will be a factor as well. Villanova is certainly comfortable playing slow, but it will be interesting to see if it tries to force the pace a bit and speed up the Gaels. Saint Mary’s has been effective dealing with pressing opponents, but perhaps the ‘Cats will elect to go to at least a token press in an attempt to speed Saint Mary’s up. It would also be nice to see ‘Nova exploit opportunities to run. We’ll be watching how the teams work to control the pace. If the game gets on pace to get into the upper 70’s, you’d have to think that’s an advantage for Villanova.

I also think the first 10 minutes or so of the game will be incredibly important. Saint Mary’s is not a team you want to have to play from behind against. With the Gaels’ pace and efficiency, you can get yourself in trouble if you fall behind. Saint Mary’s is also solid at the free throw line at 74.5 percent, adding another advantage when playing with the lead late.

On paper, the teams are pretty evenly matched in the experience factor. Here is a spot where Villanova’s championship experience is huge, especially with the sophomores. The time that Collin Gillespie and Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree got during last year’s title run is big, as is Phil Booth’s experience from multiple title runs and Eric Paschall’s minutes last year. The NCAA tournament is a different animal, and despite the ‘Cats being younger than a usual Villanova team, they have a good amount of tournament experience.

There’s a good chance that this won’t be the prettiest basketball game, but it should present a fascinating chess match between the coaches.

Jay Wright and the players did an excellent job battling through the trials and tribulations of the season and emerging with Big East regular season and tournament championships. Now, it’s time to see just how much they’ve grown as they enter the Big Dance.