Villanova advanced to the Round of 32 with a 61-57 win over Saint Mary’s on Thursday night, and will now take on 3-seed Purdue with a trip to the Sweet 16 on the line.
The Boilermakers are 24-9, having gone 16-4 in the Big Ten to earn a share of the regular season title before falling to Minnesota in the conference tournament. They advanced to the Round of 32 with a 61-48 win over Old Dominion.
Purdue averages 75.7 points per game while giving up 66.2.
Looking at Purdue’s nine losses, we find some interesting similarities.
Unsurprisingly, the Boilermakers were outshot from the field in all nine defeats. Purdue opponents were over 40 percent from the floor in all nine games, while Purdue was below 40 percent in four of the nine. Overall, Purdue shot 39.2 percent in losses while their opponents shot 48.2 percent.
Another strong indicator that emerges is the free throw line. In seven of the nine losses, the Boilermakers were outscored from the charity stripe. Villanova has been good getting to the line and defending without fouling, and that’s an area where they could build an edge on Saturday that could help swing things in its favor.
Purdue was also outscored from beyond the arc in five of its nine losses. Villanova will likely fire plenty of 3-point attempts, and if they can build an advantage from deep things could tilt in their favor as well.
Somewhat surprisingly, rebounding and turnovers played an almost nonexistent role in Purdue’s losses. The Boilermakers won the turnover battle in eight of their nine losses and outrebounded opponents in six of the nine.
Another interesting trend from Purdue’s losses was the scoring distribution. We’re going to hear a lot about Carsen Edwards (23.1 ppg) and his ability to make the Boilermakers go. Certainly, Edwards has the ability to put Purdue on his back and carry them and selling out to slow him down will be something that Jay Wright and his staff look at.
But in eight of Purdue’s nine losses three or fewer Boilermakers reached double figures. In three of the losses only two scored 10+, and in one of them Edwards was the lone double-figure scorer. Besides Edwards, only Ryan Cline (11.7) averages double-figures, so it’s fair to consider making Edwards do it all by himself, although you could be playing with fire if you allow Edwards to get hot.
Purdue averaged 68.6 points per game in losses while surrendering 77. I wouldn’t mind seeing Villanova try to push the pace a bit.
The Boilermakers rank well in KenPom, checking in at No. 10, 5th in offensive efficiency and 27th in defensive efficiency.
Offensively, they average 0.959 points per possession, ranking in the 84th percentile per Synergy Sports.
They’ve excelled in spot-up situations, using cuts, in the post, and utilizing the roll man in the P&R. They’ve also been very good utilizing the P&R ballhandler.
In addition to Edwards and Cline, 7-3 Matt Haarms and 6-6 Nojel Eastern are the main offensive threats, averaging 9.2 and 7.5 points per game respectively. That quartet accounts for over 65 percent of Purdue’s offense. 6-9 Trevion Williams (5.4 ppg), 6-8 Evan Boudreaux (5.4), 6-9 Aaron Wheeler (4.7), and 6-6 Grady Eifert (5.6) have been effective in smaller roles.
Haarms presents an interesting challenge with his size (as he does for most college basketball programs) but he only plays 21.7 minutes per game and Villanova is experienced playing at a size disadvantage.
Cline (40.3 percent) and Eifert (43.4 percent) are Purdue’s most dangerous 3-point threats. Haarms and Williams are the main threats in the post.
Defensively, Purdue ranks in the 68th percentile at 0.874 points per possession.
The Boilermakers have defended cuts, screens, and the P&R particularly well. They’ve been most susceptible to isolations, post-ups, in transition, and on the offensive glass.
Edwards, Eifert, Wheeler, and Boudreaux have been the most effective individual defenders, while Kline and Williams have been the poorest.
Obviously, we’ll be keeping an eye on Edwards, but also on the production of the players around them. It will be interesting to see what the ‘Cats elect to do defensively.
We’ll also be tracking the 3-point line and free throw line. If ‘Nova can open an advantage in both, it would be huge.
Despite it not being a strong indicator in Purdue’s losses, we’ll be paying attention to the glass as well. While the boards didn’t really correlate to Boilermaker losses, they are the type of team that can turn the glass into a huge advantage, so we’ll be looking to see if the ‘Cats can hold their own there.
All things considered, this isn’t a terrible matchup for ‘Nova. Shooting the 3, getting to the line while defending without fouling, and rebounding will be key, and those are all things the ‘Cats can do. Replicating Thursday night’s defensive performance would be a huge plus as well. It should be a great matchup, and it will be interesting to see if ‘Nova can pull off the mild upset and reach the Sweet 16.
