Villanova will open NCAA tournament play against an unfamiliar opponent, 12-seeded Winthrop. The Eagles enter the tournament 23-1, winners of the Big South regular season and conference tournament titles.
“We’re playing a great team in Winthrop that’s 23-1, won their regular season, their tournament,” Jay Wright said. “They shoot the 3, they got good inside people, great shooters, 6-7 point guard, they’re a really well-coached team. That’s what you get in the NCAA tournament.”
As we noted in our initial post about the matchup, there are some caveats to the impressive record. The Eagles hold just one win against a KenPom top 100 team, No. 92 Furman. In addition, 13 of those 23 victories came against teams ranked in the 200-299 range on KenPom, while six came against teams ranked 300th or worse by KenPom. For reference, the worst-ranked team Villanova played this season was ranked 197th, and the ‘Cats lost one game to a team ranked outside of the top 100 (Butler, 115). As a result, it is difficult to get a feel for how Winthrop will perform against a team like Villanova.
While the strength of schedule raises some questions, Winthrop owns some impressive numbers on KenPom. Overall, the Eagles are ranked 91st (120th offensively, 70th defensively). But there are some areas where the Eagles have put up elite numbers.
They rank 54th in effective field goal percentage, 96th in 3-point percentage and 52nd in 2-point percentage. Rebounding is a particularly impressive area for the Eagles, who have grabbed 35.7% of their offensive rebound opportunities (ranked 12th) and have limited opponents to 22.1% of their offensive rebound opportunities (ranked 10th). The Eagles have also forced turnovers on 22.5% of opponent’s possessions, ranking 23rd.
Haslametrics ranks the Eagles slightly better than KenPom, largely on the strength of their defense. That metric has Winthrop 79th overall, 121st offensively and 28th defensively.
Haslametrics sees Winthrop’s biggest strength offensively to be offensive rebounding, as it ranks the Eagles 23rd in potential points scored off second chances.
Defensively, the Eagles do a good job limiting opponent’s field goal attempts, ranking 24th in opponent field goal rate. They boast a strong 3-point defense (36th), and as we noted looking at the KenPom numbers, limit opponent’s second-chance opportunities with strong defensive rebounding. They have struggled defending around the rim but have compensated by not allowing opponents to get a lot of attempts around the basket (9th in near-proximity attempt rate).
One other thing we need to note is Winthrop’s pace. The Eagles own the eighth-shortest average possession length in the country and the 11th -fastest adjusted tempo.
A look at Winthrop’s personnel has to start with 6-7 guard Chandler Vaudrin. Not only does Vaudrin’s size stand out, but he leads the Eagles in four statistical categories: points (12.2), rebounds (7.2), assists (6.9), and steals (1.3). He’s posted three triple-doubles this season and has connected on 37.5% of his 3-point attempts.
“He’s got great size and mobility and a very high basketball IQ,” Wright said of Vaudrin. “That combination is rare, and he’s got it. He’s gonna be a handful.”
The size in the backcourt keeps coming with 6-6 Adonis Arms, who contributes 10.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists. 6-3 guard Charles Falden averages 10.1 points and 3.2 rebounds while hitting 36.9% from 3. 6-9 forward D.J. Burns Jr. rounds out the double-figure scorers for the Eagles with ten points per game. He adds 3.3 rebounds.
Seven other Eagles average at least 10 minutes per game: 6-3 guard Josh Corbin (6.8 points, 1.4 rebounds, 42.3% from 3), 6-4 guard Michael Anumba (6.4 points, four rebounds), 6-7 forward Kelton Talford (5.9 points, 3.8 rebounds), 5-8 guard Russell Jones Jr. (five points, two rebounds, 1.5 assists), 6-2 guard Kyle Zunic (4.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists), 6-7 forward Chase Claxton (4.2 points, 3.6 rebounds), and 6-5 guard Jamal King (3.8 points, 2.1 rebounds).
Winthrop features a mix of experience and youth. Not surprisingly, the two leading scorers (Vaudrin and Arms) are redshirt seniors. Falden and Zunic are seniors. Anumba is a junior, while Jones Jr., Claxton, and King are sophomores. Burns Jr. is a redshirt sophomore. Talford is a freshman and Corbin is a redshirt freshman.
“This is a tough matchup,” Wright said. “They’re similar to Creighton, who has given us trouble. They got a lot of 3-point shooters, great skill level, great offensive execution, play fast. A tough matchup for us.”
You’re likely noticing some things that will be keys to the matchup, and we’ll have a more in-depth look at the matchup itself later this week.