Game preview: Xavier

The Musketeers enter the game with an 11-1 record and a 1-0 mark in the Big East, having defeated Marquette in the conference opener. The lone loss for Xavier came against Iowa State on November 24 and the Musketeers hold solid wins over Ohio State, Virginia Tech and Oklahoma State.

“Couple good days of practice after a couple tough road games,” Jay Wright said. “I think the guys are in a good spot, ready to go. Now the battles of the Big East coming up and an outstanding Xavier team who’s playing really well right now. They got great depth, great team size, I just think they’re playing with great team chemistry right now. They have balance.”

Xavier averages 77 points per game while giving up 61.3. The Musketeers are shooting 45.6% overall and 34.5% from 3 and are grabbing 41.7 rebounds per game. They also average 8.2 steals. They have committed 14.2 turnovers per game.

KenPom ranks the Musketeers No. 23 overall (24th offensively, 31st defensively) while Haslametrics has them No. 20 overall (42nd offensively, 13th defensively). Clearly, Xavier is a team that has performed well at both ends of the floor.

Offensively, the Musketeers have shot well from all three levels but have done especially well on near-proximity and 3-point attempts. They have been balanced in where they take their shots from, not relying to heavily on one particular area. They have done a very good job on the offensive glass. Xavier has also done a good job at getting to the line, ranking 12th in free throw attempt rate, per Haslametrics. One weakness in the offense has been turnovers, as the Musketeers have turned it over on 19.9% of possessions, ranking 222nd per KenPom.

The picture is much the same defensively. Xavier has defended all three levels well and has done a particularly good job defending around the rim. The Musketeers do a decent job on the defensive glass and have been excellent defending without fouling. They haven’t forced a ton of turnovers, and that has helped opponents get a lot of shots up, but they have defended those shots so well that it hasn’t hurt them.

Senior guard Nate Johnson leads the way for the Musketeers with 13.3 points per game. He adds 3.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists and has hit 47.3% of his 3-point attempts.

Iowa transfer Jack Nunge has been a big addition for Xavier, averaging 13 points and 7.8 rebounds. The 7-footer provides great size for the Musketeers and can even stretch the floor a little bit, hitting 29.6% of his 3s this season.

Sophomore Colby Jones adds 12.4 points per game. The 6-6 guard also leads the team in rebounding with 8.2 per game while adding 2.8 assists and 1.5 steals. He’s connected on 36% of his 3-point attempts.

Senior guard Paul Scruggs rounds out the double figure scorers for Xavier with 10.8 points per game. He chips in 4.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.6 steals.

6-9 junior Zach Freemantle adds 8.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.2 assists. Senior guard Adam Kunkle chips in 8.1 points, 2.5 rebounds and two assists. He’s hit 36.4% of his 3-point attempts. Sophomore guard Down Odom averages seven points, 2.5 assists, 2.4 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. Odom is coming off a career-best game against Marquette in which he scored 19 points in 21 minutes. Junior forward Jerome Hunter chips in six points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists and one steal.

Xavier is a balanced team, featuring a blend of youth and experience and an ability to beat you from inside or out and offensively or defensively. The Musketeers can hang tough in a shootout or win a rock fight, and there really isn’t one particular area you can highlight to try to take away form them that would be particularly disruptive or a specific area you can attack. Villanova certainly has its work cut out for it.

So, what will the Wildcats need to do to get the big win and get back on track?

The biggest key might be the turnover battle. If there is one area where Xavier has been susceptible, it has been turnovers. The Musketeers have been below average taking care of the ball and just okay at forcing turnovers. The ‘Cats need to establish an advantage here and get some extra possessions.

Another big one will be the free throw line. Much like Villanova has done in the past, Xavier uses the line as a weapon, doing a great job of drawing fouls on the offensive end and not committing fouls on the defensive end. The Wildcats will need to prevent Xavier from opening an advantage from the charity stripe.

Rebounding has been a problem for Villanova in each of its losses and Xavier brings another tough challenge on the glass. In particular, ‘Nova will need to be strong on the defensive glass as Xavier has punished opponents at times with offensive rebounding. Xavier is not the kind of team you want to be giving extra opportunities to and if the ‘Cats can’t clean the offensive glass it could turn into a long night.

As much as we’ll be watching those keys, we’ll also be looking to see which Villanova team we get. Do we get the humming offense that we saw over the first eight games of the season or the one that has struggled mightily over the last three games? Do we get the team that had locked in defensively over the past three weeks or the one we saw against Creighton on Friday? We’ve seen Villanova play well at both ends of the floor and we’ve seen them do it at the same time a few times. Can they put it back together Tuesday night?

“When you’re in a situation like this where you have two rough games there’s always a lot of variables,” Wright said. “What we try to fight against is trying to simplify it, make it one big thing. It’s a lot of little things. We were really pleased with our defense against Baylor and our offensive execution was poor. Then we spend some time in practice on our offensive execution and we go to Creighton and our defense is poor. You’re doing that on the road, back-to-back games on the road and all those little things that add up. You can’t overreact to it. You have to just keep trying to improve on every aspect of everything you do.”

There’s no way around it, Villanova isn’t in a great spot right now. The ‘Cats are coming off two straight losses which also happen to be their two worst performances of the season. Now they get a very tough opponent while needing a win in a big way. The bad news is it’s a tough task and the season could go off the tracks quickly if the Wildcats aren’t careful. The good news is a win on Tuesday would quickly flip the narrative and the outlook going forward. It’s only December, and there’s a lot of basketball to be played, but Tuesday’s game is about as important as a late December game can be. It will be interesting to see how the ‘Cats respond.

The game is scheduled for a 7 p.m. tip on FS1.