Published Dec 30, 2019
Game Preview: Xavier
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
Publisher
Twitter
@JoshNaso

After a lengthy break following the win over then No. 1 Kansas, Villanova will finally get back on the court Monday night when it opens Big East play by hosting Xavier.

The Big East is set up for a fascinating conference season, as nine of the 10 members received votes in the December 23 AP Poll. Seven of the 10 teams are ranked in the top 50 in KenPom, with the low team being St. John’s at No. 82, and nine of the 10 teams are ranked in the top 60 of the NCAA’s NET rankings. Every game will be a crucial one, with the league having legitimate hopes of sending seven or maybe even eight teams to the big dance.

The Musketeers come into the game with an 11-2 record. They have respectable KenPom numbers and have been a team leaning on a strong defense and rebounding. Xavier averages 73.5 points per game while giving up just 63.7. The Musketeers shoot just 44 percent from the field, 30.2 percent from three, and 67.6 percent from the line, but they average 39.7 rebounds, 7.2 steals, and 3.7 blocks. They’ve given up 70 or more points just four times in 13 games.

Six of their 13 games have come against top 100 KenPom teams and they are 4-2 in those games with wins over Missouri, UConn, Cincinnati, and TCU and losses to Florida and Wake Forest.

Xavier’s own KenPom numbers paint a picture of a decent offensive team (No. 56) and a very good defensive team (No. 24). Overall Xavier is ranked No. 30 in that metric.

None of the offensive numbers wow you, and the struggles from beyond the arc and at the free-throw line stand out as Xavier ranks No. 278 and No. 241 respectively in those categories. The Musketeers do a decent job on the offensive glass (No. 64 in offensive rebound percentage) but there’s really nothing you can point to and say they excel.

Likewise, there’s nothing on defense that paints Xavier as dominant. The Musketeers don’t force a ton of turnovers and are above average but far from elite keeping opponents off the offensive glass. Rather, they are just impressively stout at that end, ranking 23rd in effective field goal percentage (43.7 percent) and 43rd in both two-point and three-point percentage (43.6 and 29.2 percent, respectively).

The Synergy numbers paint a much starker picture.

Offensively, Xavier is getting just 0.87 points per possession, ranking in the 38th percentile.

The majority of Xavier’s offense comes from four play types: spot-ups, transition, the pick and roll ballhandler, and post-ups. The Musketeers rank “average” or worse in three of those four play types, with their “very good” ranking in post-ups being the exception.

Individually, Naji Marshall, Tyrique Jones, Paul Scruggs, and Zach Freemantle all carry ratings of “good,” “very good,” or “excellent.” Scruggs has been Xavier’s best spot-up player with 0.943 points per possession. Quentin Goodin and Marshall have been the primary pick and roll ballhandlers, but neither averages more than 0.722 PPP in those situations. Jones handles most of the work in the post, along with Freemantle and Jason Carter. Jones and Freemantle have been effective on the offensive glass, and Jones has been okay as the roll man in the P/R. Scruggs has been excellent in isolation (1.182 PPP) and Marshall has been excellent off handoffs (1.214 PPP), but Xavier doesn’t go to those play types much, getting just 5.8 percent of its offense from those situations. Xavier also likes to get Jones, Freemantle, Carter, and Marshall involved off cuts, but none of that group has been particularly efficient in those situations.

Defensively, Xavier ranks in the 85th percentile with 0.784 PPP allowed.

As the KenPom numbers point out, the Musketeers have been excellent guarding spot-ups, and they rank in the 99th percentile with just 0.645 PPP allowed in those situations. They’ve also been good guarding the pick and roll and preventing points off offensive rebounds and have defended cuts well. They’ve struggled against isolations, handoffs, in the post, and in transition.

Scruggs, Goodin, Carter, and Jones have been the best individual defenders for the Musketeers while Marshall, Freemantle, and Bryce Moore are players that have been more attackable on the defensive end.

Freemantle and Marshall have struggled the most with shooters, and that could make the group of Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Saddiq Bey, Jermaine Samuels, and Cole Swider big for the ‘Cats on Monday as it will likely be someone from that group that draws Freemantle and Marshall as defenders.

Goodin, Scruggs, and Moore have been average to poor guarding the pick and roll ballhandler while Jones has struggled in isolation. Scruggs and Marshall have struggled against handoffs, which is something ‘Nova might look to attack.

Marshall leads the way for Xavier with 16.2 points per game. Jones is averaging a double-double with 13.4 points and 10 rebounds. Scruggs chips in 14.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.5 steals. Goodin adds 8.1 points and four assists and has been Xavier’s best three-point shooter at 34.8 percent. Carter averages 7.4 points and 5.4 rebounds, while Freemantle adds 7.2 points and Moore 4.5.

It will be interesting to see how Villanova tries to attack Xavier offensively. The ‘Cats might be able to find some success with the pick and roll and with handoffs. There are also some individual matchups they may be able to exploit. It will be important for ‘Nova to win the three-point battle, as although Xavier defends the arc well, they have been pretty poor shooting the ball from deep. I’d also like to see ‘Nova look to push the pace more in this game, as Xavier has been susceptible in transition and getting out on the break is generally a good way to neutralize good defensive teams.

Defensively, ‘Nova will need to defend the post, and it will be interesting to see if the ‘Cats sell out in that regard. Ideally, they’d like to force Xavier to beat them by making the Musketeers knock down jump shots.

We’ll also be watching the rebounding battle, as that’s an area where Xavier seems to have an advantage.

There are going to be a lot of tests in the Big East schedule, and Monday will be no exception. With so many good teams, every conference win is going to be huge, and it would be great to see ‘Nova get off to a good start and get an early leg up on some of its conference foes. The game is scheduled for a 6:30 tip on FS1.