Published Feb 19, 2021
Game Preview: UConn
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
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On Saturday, for the first time since 2013, Villanova will take on UConn in a Big East conference game. The programs renewed their rivalry as non-conference opponents in each of the past three seasons, with Villanova emerging with a 3-0 record, but now they will resume their roles as conference rivals.

“We’ve had some great games with UConn,” Jay Wright said. “Our game last year at the Wells Fargo Center could have gone either way, came right down to the wire. And I think they’re even a better team this year, they’re playing great.”

UConn enters Saturday’s matchup with a 10-5 record, 7-5 in Big East play. KenPom ranks the Huskies 36th (37th offensively, 46th defensively) while Haslametrics has them 33rd (29th offensively, 47th defensively).

Offensively, UConn shoots the ball well from 3 but doesn’t take a ton of shots from beyond the arc. The team’s bread and butter offensively has been the offensive glass, where it has been elite. The Huskies rank 6th in offensive rebound percentage with a 36.9% mark. Haslametrics ranks UConn 24th in potential second-chance points created and 27th in second-chance opportunity conversion percentage.

Despite the abundant second-chance opportunities, UConn hasn’t shot the ball particularly well from 2-point range. The Huskies rank 265th in 2-point percentage. UConn has also struggled from the free throw line, hitting just 71.2%.

Defensively, the Huskies have been good contesting shots from 2-point range, holding opponents to 46.2% on such attempts. That number is driven largely by elite defense around the rim, where Haslametrics ranks UConn 3rd in near-proximity defense. That number, in turn, is driven by UConn’s elite block percentage of 15.6%, which ranks 5th in the country.

UConn’s biggest issue on defense has been its propensity to foul. Haslametrics ranks the Huskies 321st in opponent’s free throw rate, and UConn opponents are getting 21.9% of their points from the line, 41st most in the country.

The Huskies have also allowed opponents to grab offensive rebounds at a significant rate but have done a good job of preventing the conversion of those opportunities into points.

UConn has been buoyed by the return of James Bouknight, who returned last Tuesday after missing over a month with an elbow injury. Bouknight scored 18 points in his return, helping the Huskies to a win over Providence. On the season, Bouknight is averaging 20 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.6 steals.

“He’s one of those guys, there’s only a few of them in our conference, he can just go one-on-one and make a tough shot,” Wright said. He also lauded Bouknight’s ability in transition.

“He’s a great player, very dynamic, can do a bit of everything,” Collin Gillespie said of Bouknight. “Can get his own shot off, can get guys involved and he’s really athletic so we know how great a player he is.”

Tyrese Martin adds 12.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.4 steals, and has connected on 45.5% of his 3-point attempts.

R.J. Cole rounds out the double-figure scorers for UConn with 12.2 points per game. He adds 3.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 1.3 steals. Tyler Polley adds 8.4 points and 2.2 rebounds and joins Cole as UConn’s biggest 3-point threats in terms of volume. Polley has attempted 69 3s and connected on 36.2%, while Cole has launched 66 times from deep and hit 37.9%.

Isaiah Whaley has done a bit of everything for UConn with eight points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.9 steals and 2.9 blocks.

Adama Sanogo (6.1 points, 4.2 rebounds), Jalen Gaffney (5.9 points) and Brendan Adams (4.9 points) are some of the key rotation pieces for the Huskies.

Priority number one on Saturday is pretty clear: try to keep the Huskies off the offensive glass as much as possible. UConn is the type of team that can demoralize you with second-chance opportunities while using them to change the game. “It’s a priority for us,” Jeremiah Robinson-Earl said. “We know they’re a very physical, long, athletic team and we’re going to have to be physical with them and be solid and get those boards.”

Where shots are coming from and who is converting from where will be something else to keep an eye on. As we noted, UConn shoots the 3 reasonably well but doesn’t take a ton of long-range shots. Meanwhile, we know the importance of the 3 in Villanova’s attack. Who gets the better of things from beyond the arc? Likewise, will Villanova be able to get anything going near the rim against UConn’s strong interior defense? The Huskies also give up a lot of mid-range shots, and their defense generally gets worse the farther out from the basket you go. Can the Wildcats take advantage in the mid-range? Finally, UConn hasn’t shot the ball particularly well from 2-point range. Can Villanova’s defense make that trend continue? Or does UConn exploit the ‘Nova defense like some other opponents have done, get a lot of shots at the rim that are easily convertible, and build an advantage in points in the paint?

The free throw line could be key as well. Villanova has been slightly above average at getting to the line and has been outstanding converting from the charity stripe. UConn tends to send opponents to the line often. Is that something ‘Nova can exploit? Likewise, Villanova has been very good at defending without fouling, while UConn has struggled to convert from the line. The numbers say this is an area Villanova should be able to build a significant advantage in, and we’ll be watching to see if that plays out.

There are a lot of interesting things surrounding this game. UConn is on the upswing and looking to make a statement, not only for this season and for its NCAA tournament resume, but to the Big East as a whole. The Huskies want to establish themselves as one of the elite teams in the conference, and a win over the team that has dominated the conference since UConn’s departure is the perfect way to accomplish those goals and further that agenda.

In addition, there should be some good chess matches going on tactically during the game and it will be interesting to watch those play out Saturday afternoon. It should be a good game, with UConn looking to make some noise and Villanova wanting to prove it remains the top dog in the conference.

“They play with great energy, outstanding defensive team, very well-coached, everybody knows their roles, good team,” Wright said. “We’re expecting a battle.”