Game preview: St. John's

The Johnnies enter with an 11-7 record and a 3-4 mark in the Big East. They got off to an excellent start, sprinting out to an 8-2 record with the only two losses coming at Indiana and against Kansas. Unfortunately for the Red Storm, the wheels have come off a bit as the Johnnies have gone just 3-5 over their last eight. However, they are coming off a nice win over Seton Hall last time out.

Before we get into the strengths and weaknesses of St. John’s let’s look at the roster.

St. John’s is powered by the dynamic duo of Julian Champagnie and Posh Alexander. Champagnie leads the team in both scoring (19.5) and rebounds (6.8) while also contributing two steals 1.4 blocks. He also knocks down 37.3% of his 3-point attempts. Alexander, meanwhile, adds 15 points, a team-high 4.9 assists, 4.6 rebounds and a team-high 2.5 steals.

“They got one of the best scorers in the country in Julian Champagnie and one of the toughest guards in the country in Posh Alexander,” Jay Wright said of the dynamic duo.

Dylan Addae-Wusu chips in 9.7 points, 4.2 assists, 4. 1 rebounds and 1.7 steals while connecting on 40.4% of his 3-point attempts. Montez Mathis adds nine points, 4.2 rebounds, two assists and 1.5 steals. Aaron Wheeler contributes 7.9 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.1 blocks while hitting 41.3% from deep. He had 17 points against Seton Hall last Monday. Stef Smith chips in 6.9 points and two rebounds and Joel Soriano adds 5.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.7 blocks.

Moving on to the Johnnies’ strengths and weaknesses, a few things really stand out.

The two biggest are pace and turnovers. St. John’s plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, and that pace is fueled by an ability to force turnovers and get out in transition. The Johnnies have forced turnovers on 23.7% of opponent’s possessions, ranking 16th in the country, per KenPom. Haslametrics ranks the Johnnies 2nd in potential points off steals.

As such, it will be imperative that Villanova takes care of the ball on Saturday afternoon. If the turnovers start to pile up, it could turn into a long day for the Wildcats.

“We’ve gotta take care of the ball,” Wright said. “We can’t turn the ball over against these guys.”

One other strength for St. John’s is its ability to clean the offensive glass. The Johnnies rank 63rd in the country by pulling down 32.3% of their offensive rebound opportunities, per KenPom. Haslametrics ranks them 37th in potential second-chance points and 70th at converting those extra opportunities.

Interestingly, the Johnnies have struggled on the defensive glass ranking 281st in opponent’s potential second-chance points and 193rd in opponent’s second-chance conversion percentage. They allow opponents to grab 34.4% of their offensive rebounds, 11th-worst in the country.

This weakness creates somewhat of a dilemma for the Wildcats. While it’s certainly something they’d like to exploit, if St. John’s catches you hitting the offensive glass too aggressively they can punish you with that pace when you fail to secure the rebound. It will be a balancing act for the ‘Cats to try to exploit the weakness while not getting burned in the process.

“That is, I think, part of the genius of their philosophy… ‘you might get a couple on us, but we’ll get more on you in transition,’” Wright said. “There’s a number of games where they’ve gotten beaten on the offensive glass but they’ve won the game, even significantly. It’s a balance, you gotta be smart about when you go but you gotta keep your floor balance and make sure you’ve always got people back.”

The 3-point line will be interesting as well. St. John’s loves to attack the basket, and that preference is heightened by the number of turnovers they force and the subsequent fast breaks. But the Johnnies have also shot the ball reasonably well from deep, hitting 35.4%. As we saw in the breakdown of the roster, they have several capable 3-point shooters. However, they have also done a poor job defending the 3, allowing opponents to hit 36.2%, ranking 302nd nationally. It feels like the battle beyond the arc could go either way in this one.

St. John’s has struggled mightily from the free throw line, hitting just 66.8%. The Johnnies have also been average to slightly below average at both getting to the line and sending opponent’s to the line. As such, this is an area we would expect Villanova to have an advantage.

One final thing we want to address is Collin Gillespie, and more specifically, how St. John’s has attempted to defend Gillespie. The Johnnies have really sold out to try to take Gillespie out of the Villanova attack and have had some success with it. That was particularly evident in last season’s 70-59 loss in New York. In that game, Gillespie shot just 2-12, including 0-8 from 3, for four points. He also committed six turnovers. However, he bounced back in the 81-58 ‘Nova win three weeks later, scoring 14 points on 5-8 shooting (2-3 from 3), committing just two turnovers.

“They do a really good job just getting into you, trying to make you play faster,” Gillespie said. “They’re running and jumping at you, making things difficult and getting in the passing lanes. So, I think it’s just playing off my habits, catching and shooting, trying to be as solid as I can with the ball and everybody’s a playmaker for us.”

“I think it is something that they definitely focus on in every game they play, taking the head of the snake if you will, taking the best ballhandler out of the game,” Wright said. “Collin is so valuable to us, not just the best ballhandler but leading scorer, so it’s even more impactful when they do that to us. Collin, sometimes he wants to take on that challenge so much, to be the leader, it can hurt us a little bit. And it’s purely unselfish, like he knows what they’re trying to do. And then there’s been other games where he just kinda let it flow and we’ve had some success and I think it’s important that he does that tomorrow.”

The matchup certainly presents some interesting things to watch. First will be pace. In seven losses, St. John’s has scored 78 points or fewer in all of them and 73 or fewer in four of them. As for the 11 wins, the Johnnies have scored at least 76 points in all of them and 80+ in nine of them. The team that forces the game to be played at its preferred pace will have an advantage.

Next will be turnovers, specifically Villanova’s turnovers. Certainly, forcing turnovers plays a big part in the Johnnies’ pace and so ‘Nova taking care of the ball will go a long way towards helping the ‘Cats play the game at the pace they’d prefer. But also, so much of the St. John’s offense is generated through forcing turnovers. Villanova needs to make the Johnnies play in the half court and work for its buckets rather than getting a lot of easy runouts. While you typically think of turnovers as detrimental to the offense, and they are, Wright indicated that taking care of the ball is one of the things that will impact the ‘Cats on the defensive end on Saturday.

The battle on the boards will be worth your attention as well. The ‘Cats have done a great job on the glass recently and will need to continue that to keep St. John’s off the offensive boards. As we mentioned, ‘Nova should have an opportunity for offensive rebounds of its own but have to weigh pursuing that opportunity against potentially allowing St. John’s to get out and run. How Villanova decides to approach that choice will be interesting, and if one team starts opening an edge on the boards, especially the offensive boards, it could tilt the outcome of the game.

Finally, the 3-point line. While St. John’s isn’t in love with the 3, it is capable of connecting at a good clip. Of course, the Johnnies have also struggled to defend the 3. The arc could be another factor that tilts the game with either St. John’s getting hot or ‘Nova exploiting the struggling 3-point defense of St. John’s.

As you can see, there will be plenty to pay attention to Saturday in what should be an interesting matchup.

The game is scheduled for a 4:30 tip on FOX.