Villanova will seek revenge Tuesday night when it hosts St. John’s, who beat the Wildcats 70-59 a few weeks ago.
The Red Storm’s speed and pressure disrupted the ‘Cats in a big way, leading to an uncharacteristic 17 turnovers and a 19-9 Red Storm advantage in points off turnovers. Villanova also shot just 32.3% from the floor and 26.7% from 3.
“I think they’re a really good team, a really tough matchup for us,” Jay Wright said. “They did a good job getting into our guards last time, being really physical. We really gotta be smarter and we have to be more physical.”
We knew heading into the last meeting between the teams that the battle to control the pace would be important, and it was St. John’s who had more success in that department. As a result, Villanova was never comfortable and it influenced the decision-making, something that played a big part in the turnovers and the poor shooting numbers. St. John’s built an 18-8 advantage in fast break points and a 26-18 advantage in points in the paint.
One area where St. John’s has been susceptible on defense is giving up offensive rebounds. Villanova won the offensive rebounding battle in the last meeting between the teams and had a 16-10 advantage in second-chance points.
However, committing too many resources to offensive rebounding leaves you vulnerable to the Red Storm’s speed, so you have to be careful about how you try to attack that particular weakness. “That’s a great point and it’s one of the reasons I always say that they have a very intelligent scheme to their style of play,” Wright said. “It looks chaotic, but it’s very intelligently comprised and that is a big part of it. They might give up some offensive rebounds but they’re out running, and they put the fear in you of going to the offensive glass because you know if you don’t get it, they’re scoring at the other end. If you look at risk/reward for them, the offensive rebounds they give up usually doesn’t hurt them too much. There might be a game or two, just like us shooting 3s, you shoot a lot of 3s there’s a game or two where you can’t make any and it could cost you. But I think they do a good job with getting out quickly and letting people leak out because they know you’re afraid to send too many people to the offensive glass.”
Our keys to the game remain largely the same from the last meeting, with one or two additions. The turnovers will obviously be the focus. They were the biggest issue in the first meeting between the teams and ‘Nova will have to be better taking care of the ball if it hopes for a different outcome.
We’ll again be watching the 3-point line. St. John’s shoots from deep at a reasonably good clip, but the Red Storm don’t take a ton of 3s. However, the Johnnies earned a six-point advantage from beyond the arc in the last meeting between the teams.
As mentioned, we’ll also be watching the offensive glass. Again, St. John’s has been susceptible there, and Villanova built a small advantage in that area last time. But it’s also dangerous to over-commit to crashing the offensive glass, so it will be interesting to see how Villanova balances the desire to exploit that St. John’s weakness while protecting itself against runouts. Which brings us to our next point.
Villanova has to be better controlling the pace. The Wildcats also had this issue in the recent loss to Creighton. We’ll keep an eye on fast break points, but really this is about decision making and forcing St. John’s to play in the half court as much as possible. In the last meeting, the turnovers and all the missed shots were a recipe for disaster against a team that wants to use speed to its advantage, and we saw the result. Making good decisions, taking good shots, taking care of the ball, and getting back on defense and making St. John’s play 5-on-5 halfcourt offense will be key.
Finally, St. John’s did a fantastic job taking away Collin Gillespie last time. Gillespie had his worst game of the season, and with the success of the tactic you have to think St. John’s will look to replicate it. If so, Villanova has to find a way to respond and counter. Wright said the team had a plan for that last time but was unable to execute it. They will have to handle it better Tuesday night if St. John’s goes that way again.
It will be interesting to see how Villanova responds. St. John’s handled the ‘Cats relatively easily and really imposed its will on Villanova. It will be intriguing to see what Wright comes up with and to watch for similarities and differences between the two games. One nice thing about the Big East is that you usually get a second shot at each opponent (obviously COVID has altered that this season) and Villanova will have an opportunity to get some revenge Tuesday night.
The game is scheduled for an 8 p.m. tipoff on CBS Sports Network.
