On Wednesday night, Villanova will head to New York to take on St. John’s for the first time this season. The Red Storm come into the matchup with an 11-7 record (5-6 Big East) and have won four-straight games including a very solid win over UConn.
“St. John’s is playing outstanding ball,” Jay Wright said. “They have a lot of veteran players, even their new guys are junior college guys, they got seniors coming off the bench. They’re a very veteran team that’s physical and strong and they got a great, dynamic freshman point guard that makes everybody around him better in Posh Alexander.
Looking at the advanced metrics, KenPom ranks St. John’s 78th overall (57th offensively, 120th defensively) while Haslametrics ranks the Johnnies 76th overall (54th offensively, 98th defensively).
While those defensive rankings, and the 77.1 points per game St. John’s give up, don’t paint the picture of a defensive juggernaut, they also don’t tell the whole story. St. John’s plays an aggressive, pressing style that makes opponents uncomfortable and that has made the Red Storm one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers. Per KenPom, St. John’s ranks 21st in the country in opponent’s turnover rate at 23.1%. Likewise, it is sixth in the country in steal percentage at 13.2%. The Johnnies are averaging 9.9 steals per game.
“It’s a very disciplined, chaotic way to play, it’s chaotic for the team going against them,” Wright said of the Red Strom’s defensive style. “But they’re actually very smart about how they execute it. It is a very well thought out, planned, executed, chaos. And it makes teams like us uncomfortable, and that’s really what you’re supposed to do. We’ve got to execute within that chaos.”
There are a few ripple effects of that style of play that impact other areas of St. John’s games. One is pace. The Red Storm play at one of the fastest paces in the country, ranking 12th in adjusted tempo and averaging the 10th shortest average possession length in the country at just 14.7 seconds.
The other is field goal defense. Once teams get through the press, they have been able to find good shots. Per KenPom, St. John’s ranks just 277th in 2-point defense, 287th in 3-point defense, and 299th in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. Similarly, Haslametrics ranks the Johnnies 215th in opponent’s field goal percentage.
So far, we’ve learned that St. John’s is elite at forcing turnovers, but the defense has been poor when those turnovers don’t happen and that the style of play causes increased pace. Let’s dig into some other strengths and weaknesses for St. John’s.
In addition to forcing all those turnovers, the Johnnies have shot the ball reasonably well and have done a solid job on the offensive glass and converting second-chance points. Haslametrics ranks St. John’s 29th in second-chance point conversion percentage. St. John’s has also added a fair number of blocked shots to all those steals. Finally, all those turnovers have allowed St. John’s to generate a ton of quick point opportunities and helped them limit the number of shots opponents can get up. Haslametrics ranks St. John’s first in potential quick points off steals and 39th in opponent’s field goal rate. St. John’s has also taken care of the ball reasonably well.
That’s a fair amount of positives for St. John’s, but as the record and rankings indicate, there must be some things the Red Storm haven’t done well beyond just poor opponent shooting numbers.
Well, as good as St. John’s has been on the offensive glass, it has been equally as bad on the defensive glass. The Johnnies have allowed opponents to grab 30.4% of their offensive rebound opportunities, a number that ranks 261st in the country, per KenPom. Likewise, Haslametrics ranks St. John’s 219th in opponent’s second-chance opportunities and 346th in opponent’s second-chance conversion percentage, so not only are the Johnnies allowing opponents to grab a lot of offensive rebounds, they are also allowing them to convert them into points. In addition, St. John’s doesn’t get to the free throw line a whole lot and has given up a ton of near-proximity attempts to opponents.
Julian Champagnie leads the way for St. John’s with 19.8 points and 6.8 rebounds while adding 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocks. He is also the Johnnies leading 3-point shooter at 43%. “He’s really developed into a skilled, intelligent player,” Wright said of Champagnie. “In the halfcourt offense they’ve got really good schemes to get him shots and he’s really intelligent about how he uses screens, how he plays off the ball. Then with the ball in his hands as an iso player he’s outstanding.”
The aforementioned Alexander chips in 11 points, 4.4 assists, 3.6 rebounds and 2.7 steals. Greg Williams Jr. and Vince Cole round out the double-figure scorers with 10.9 and 10.1 points per game, respectively. Williams has connected on 41% of his 3-point attempts while Cole has hit 37.3%.
Isaih Moore adds nine points and 4.9 rebounds. Rasheem Dunn chips in 8.1 points and 3.5 assists. Marcellus Earlington and Dylan Addae-Wusu add 6.7 and six points, respectively.
As for keys to the game, it will start with the St. John’s press and turnovers. The Johnnies thrive on creating turnovers while Villanova has been elite taking care of the ball. Whichever team’s strength shines through in this area will have a huge advantage in this game.
We’ll be watching the 3-point line as well. St. John’s shoots the 3 reasonably well but doesn’t take a ton of long-range shots. Conversely, the 3 is a staple of the ‘Nova offense and St. John’s has struggled to defend the arc. This is an area we’d like to see Villanova build a sizeable advantage.
Finally, we’ll be keeping an eye on offensive rebounding and second-chance points. As we’ve noted, St. John’s has been strong on the offensive glass and converting those extra opportunities into points but has also had trouble preventing opponents from doing the same. Meanwhile, ‘Nova has been strong on the defensive glass, and while it hasn’t necessarily been a force on the offensive glass, we have seen the ‘Cats take advantage of some opponents who have struggled on the defensive glass. Can Villanova exploit St. John’s in a similar way? And can the Wildcats use their strong defensive rebounding to mitigate the Johnnies’ strength on the offensive boards? This is another area that could help decide the game.
80 might be the magic number for this game. St. John’s is just 4-6 when scoring under 80 points this season and 7-1 when eclipsing the 80-point mark. Meanwhile, Villanova is 11-0 when allowing fewer than 80 points.
There will be plenty of intriguing things to keep an eye on in this game as the Wildcats try to remain perfect in Big East play.
The game is scheduled for a 9 p.m. tipoff on CBS Sports Network.