Game Preview: St. John's

St. John’s had a perfect run through the non-conference before stumbling in the Big East opener against Seton Hall. The Red Storm bounced back with wins over Marquette and Georgetown to enter Tuesday’s battle with ‘Nova sitting at 14-1 and 2-1 in the Big East, ranked No. 24 in the country.

For the Johnnies, it’s all about the offense. They are averaging 84.7 points per game and shoot 48.9 percent from the field and 40.2 percent from 3. Five players average double figures. They are ranked 23 in offensive efficiency by KenPom and score 1.035 points per possession per Synergy Sports, good for the 98th percentile.

Shamorie Ponds leads the way with 20.4 points per game, adding six assists, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.7 steals. Mustapha Heron chips in 15.6. L.J. Figueroa adds 14.3, while Marvin Clark II and Justin Simon round out the double figure scorers with 13.1 and 10.2 respectively.

Ponds, Heron, Clark II and Mikey Dixon (5.9 PPG) all shoot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc.

St. John’s has been excellent in spot ups, in transition, utilizing the pick and roll ballhandler, and when using hand offs. It has also been very good in the post and in isolation.

Digging through Synergy’s numbers, it’s hard to find a weak link in the offense. All of the Red Storm’s key contributors rank good, very good, or excellent in virtually everything the Johnnies run. Head coach Chris Mullin has done an excellent job securing talent and then tailoring the offense around that talent.

One small encouraging sign for the ‘Nova defense is that St. John’s doesn’t generate a ton of offense off cuts, and it hasn’t been particularly efficient when doing so.

Another interesting note is that much of the Johnnies’ work in the post comes with a guard doing the posting, as the 6’5” Simon, 6’5” Heron and 6’1” Ponds are featured in the majority of their post play.

Defensively the Johnnies are ranked 87 by KenPom and allow 0.845 points per possession.

They’ve done surprisingly well defending the post considering their relative lack of size and have also had success guarding the pick and roll ballhandler and cuts. They’ve had the most trouble defending shooters and dealing with transition. Ponds and Simon have been the best individual defenders.

The matchup poses some interesting questions for Villanova. Depth and lack of size are two weaknesses for the Johnnies. The ‘Cats don’t particularly like to use the post and haven’t been very effective when they do. It will be interesting to see if they use the post a little more or if they elect to matchup and play St. John’s game. If it’s the latter, it could mean a light night for Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree and open up some more minutes for someone else (Jahvon Quinerly?).

The free throw line could be a key on Tuesday night. St. John’s has been average at getting to the line and average shooting it from the line (70.2 percent). More importantly, there is a large drop off in production after the top five for St. John’s, so if the ‘Cats could force one or two of those players off the court with foul trouble it could make life a lot easier at the defensive end.

Turnovers will be key as well. St. John’s protects the ball well, turning it over on just 14.5 percent of possessions, eighth-best in the country. The ‘Cats have been better in that area recently (despite the seven in seven minutes against Providence) and winning the turnover battle could make a huge difference Tuesday night.

We’ll be watching the rebounding battle as well, especially on the offensive end. ‘Nova has been effective getting and converting second chances this season but got killed on the offensive glass against Providence. St. John’s hasn’t grabbed a ton of offensive boards this season, so this is an area the ‘Cats could find an advantage.

St. John’s presents a tough test for Villanova and a win would be absolutely huge, not just for the resume but in the Big East race and for Villanova’s confidence as well. It should be an interesting night.