Published Dec 18, 2020
Game Preview: St. Joe's
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
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@JoshNaso

The strange 2020-21 season continues Saturday when Villanova and St. Joe’s wage the latest battle in the Holy War. After the game was originally canceled due to COVID issues at St. Joe’s, it was revived after Villanova’s original opponent for Saturday, Virginia, had COVID issues of its own. After some maneuvering from each school’s athletic department, the rivalry game was back on.

Jay Wright expressed appreciation for St. Joe’s working together with Villanova to make this happen. “We’re really appreciative of St. Joe that they were able to put this together,” Wright said. “Obviously always a great game in Philadelphia, but this year even more important because we both can get a game. Getting games are so valuable. So, we’re appreciative that St. Joe’s is doing this with us.”

The Hawks enter the matchup with an 0-3 record. They started with a tough overtime loss to Auburn and followed that up with a loss to No. 6 Kansas in which St. Joe’s hung tough for a significant stretch. From there the Hawks paused, returning to action on Thursday with an 81-77 loss to Drexel.

When looking at St. Joe’s, you have to start with pace. Everything the numbers can tell us about the Hawks is influenced by that pace, which is hectic to say the least. St. Joe’s averages 80 points per game but is giving up 90.3. Drexel’s 81-points are the fewest St. Joe’s has allowed so far this season. The Hawks are averaging a whopping 68.3 field goal attempts per game and have the 22nd shortest average possession time in the country, per KenPom.

Speaking of KenPom, the metric ranks St. Joe’s 162 overall, 116th in offensive efficiency and 244th in defensive efficiency. Here again, pace comes into play.

While the Hawks are getting up a high volume of shots, they are connecting on just 40% of them overall and just 28.7% from deep. That adds up to a lot of misses over the course of a game. Which brings us to the Hawks’ second problem: rebounding. They are pulling down just 33.7 per game and have pulled down 24.8% of their offensive rebound opportunities, which ranks 225th in KenPom. A fast pace and high volume of shots plus hitting them at a below-average percentage plus poor rebounding is a recipe for disaster on the basketball court.

St. Joe’s has also had issues giving up offensive rebounds to the opponent, and something Villanova will have to balance is looking to exploit that opportunity while not getting burned by the Hawks’ transition game if failing to come up with the offensive rebound. “We’re gonna focus on what we do, defend and rebound,” Collin Gillespie said. “And whenever we do have opportunities our guys are gonna go to the glass and try come up with offensive rebounds. But we know that they’re great in transition so we’re just gonna continue to do what we do on the defensive end.”

Rebounding will be key for the Wildcats. While St. Joe’s hasn’t gotten the results it has hoped for so far this season, the Hawks are a dangerous offensive team. If they start getting offensive rebounds and second opportunities or limiting ‘Nova to one shot better than they have, their pace and offensive weapons can cause headaches.

Guard Ryan Daly has to be the immediate focus for Villanova. Daly torched the Wildcats for 32 points in last year’s meeting and leads the Hawks with 20.7 ppg this season. “We know how tough he is to guard,” Gillespie said. “He can really shoot the ball, he can get to the rim and he’s really physical. He uses his body around the rim to create his own shot, so he’s a really dynamic guard, he can do a bit of everything. He can score, he can pass, and the guys who are on the scout team do a great job of trying to imitate him and they’ve done a great job helping us prepare. We’re gonna use our concepts and our habits and try to defend him as a team.” Daly adds 6.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 steals.

But Daly also has some help. Taylor Funk is chipping in 16.3 points and seven rebounds while shooting 60% from the field and 40% from 3. Jack Forrest adds 13 points while Dahmir Bishop chips in 9.3 and Greg Foster adds 6.5. The 3-point shooting from Funk, Bishop (40%) and Forrest (37.5%) create a dilemma in trying to defend Daly. “They can really score,” Wright said. “They’re very skilled, Billy’s a great offensive coach, they really spread you out, they’re really difficult to guard. So, it makes it even scarier with Daly because you can’t really leave any of their shooters.”

St. Joe’s has also taken care of the ball fairly well considering the pace at which it plays, checking in at No. 59 in turnover percentage at 16.5%, per KenPom. Villanova ranks fourth in that metric at 12.2%. Neither team has forced turnovers at a particularly impressive rate.

So, we’ll be keeping an eye on the rebounding battle as well as how well Villanova is able to control the pace. If possessions are at a premium, ‘Nova gains a huge advantage.

Regardless of the particulars on the court or how it came about, everyone is happy to be playing this game, especially considering the circumstances of this season. “It’s really important to get a game in, just finding games whenever you can,” Gillespie said. “We’re just grateful for any game we can get. We all know the importance and the history behind this game and in the Big 5.”

Caleb Daniels will be getting his first taste of playing in a Big 5 rivalry game, but he took note of what it’s all about while watching last year. “From what I’ve witnessed watching the games last year I know that it’s a very intense battle, a lot of tradition and a lot of history behind it,” Daniels said.

Wright thinks the game has benefits for his Wildcats beyond getting a game in and it being a rivalry game. “It’s good playing these guys for us because they know what we do, it’s always good to see what they do against us,” Wright said. “We learn from these games.”

“These games, as good as they are for the city of Philadelphia, which they are, they’re always valuable to us,” Wright said.