Game Preview: St. Joe's

Interestingly, despite early-season games against the likes of Army, Ohio, and Middle Tennessee, Saturday’s game ranks as Villanova’s second-easiest game of the season according to KenPom. The Hawks rank 252nd in that metric (200th offense, 291st defense) and only Army, at 257th, have a worse rating of any of the teams on Villanova’s schedule.

St. Joe’s comes into the game at 2-7. The Hawks started off the season with a decent win over Bradley, followed that up with a disappointing loss to Old Dominion (apologies for any 1995 flashbacks), and then got a very good win on the road against UConn. Then, the wheels fell off, as the Hawks have lost six straight with losses against Loyola Chicago, Florida, Missouri State, Towson, St. Francis (PA), and Lafayette.

The Hawks average 72 points per game and surrender 80.6. They are shooting just 38.6 percent from the floor and 30.5 percent from three and are dishing out just 13.9 assists. They have rebounded the ball reasonably well, grabbing 38.6 per game, slightly better than Villanova’s 37.9.

The KenPom numbers paint a discouraging picture for the Hawks. As you would expect from the shooting percentage, they rank 277th in effective field goal percentage, 262nd in two-point field goal percentage, and 252nd in three-point field goal percentage. They have also had an alarming number of their shots blocked, nearly ranking dead-last in percentage of shots blocked. The lone “bright” spots for the Hawks offensively have been taking care of the ball (110th in TO percentage, 51st in non-steal TO percentage) and offensive rebounding (125th).

Defensively, it doesn’t get any better. The Hawks haven’t forced turnovers (314th), have allowed a lot of offensive rebounds (268th), and have struggled mightily defending the perimeter (343rd in opponent’s three-point percentage).

Despite the poor three-point percentage, St. Joe’s has been letting it fly from deep, with 48 percent of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc. 38.9 percent of its points have come via the three, the 37th highest percentage in the country.

Ryan Daly has been the engine for St. Joe’s. He leads the team in scoring (20.9), rebounds (8.4), and assists (4.8).

Lorenzo Edwards adds 9.7 points and 4.9 rebounds. Rahmir Moore chips in 9.4 points and three rebounds, Taylor Funk contributes 9.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, and Myles Douglas adds seven points and 3.3 rebounds.

Cameron Brown rounds out the group of Hawks playing at least 20 minutes per game, averaging 6.9 points and 4.6 rebounds.

Chereef Knox (5.9 pts, two rebounds) and Anthony Longpre (4.2 pts, 3.6 rebounds) make up the rest of the steady rotation.

It’s worth noting that Douglas is averaging 18 points per game in the Hawks’ two wins, while Daly is averaging in 28 points per game in the wins.

Digging into the Synergy numbers, we see that St. Joe’s is averaging 0.825 points per possession, ranking in the 19th percentile.

The Hawks rank as “below average” or “poor” in spot-ups, transition, cuts, off screens, and utilizing the roll man in the pick and roll. They are “average” using the P/R ballhandler, have been “good” in the post, and have had the most success in isolation and utilizing handoffs, where they rank “excellent.” However, those two scenarios only account for 11 percent of their offense.

Moore has been their most efficient offensive player and has excelled as the pick and roll ballhandler.

Interestingly, the 6-5 Daly has been their most efficient player in the post. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some inverted offense from the Hawks. Also, watch for St. Joe’s to potentially try to get Daly going with handoffs, and to work to get him opportunities to play in isolation.

The defensive numbers look even worse. St. Joe’s surrenders 0.938 PPP, ranking in the eighth percentile.

The Hawks have particularly struggled to defend spot-ups, the P/R ballhandler, the post, and screens. They’ve done okay defending the roll man, preventing conversions of offensive rebounds, and in transition.

Moore and Funk have been the best individual defenders for St. Joe’s.

This is a Big 5 game and the Hawks have that solid win over UConn and also played well against Florida, but the numbers and the bad losses are hard to ignore. You never want to take anything for granted, especially in the Big 5, but this has the makings of a “get right” game for the ‘Cats defensively and you would expect them to win easily.

There’s not much evidence to suggest St. Joe’s will be able to slow the ‘Cats offense. After a game in which Penn forced ‘Nova to play a different style, I’d be surprised if we didn’t see a return to the kind of offense we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from the Wildcats.

For ‘Nova defensively, it will certainly have to contain Daly. He has the ability to change games offensively and if he really gets it going it could change the outlook. It’s also interesting that offensive outbursts from Douglas have been a common denominator in St. Joe’s wins. Whether that says something about Douglas specifically or just points to the broader need for the Hawks to have someone support Daly offensively remains to be seen. It’s worth noting that in the seven losses, Douglas has averaged just 3.9 points. Also, the Hawks are 2-1 when having four double-figure scorers, and just 1-6 when having three or fewer.

If the ‘Cats can defend the point of attack and consistently challenge shots on the perimeter, they should be fine. The numbers lead us to believe that the Hawks will fire away from deep, so ‘Nova will have to keep hands in their faces. If the ‘Cats can prevent St. Joe’s from consistently getting to the rim and challenge on the perimeter, they should be able to keep the Hawks in check. ‘Nova has the right personnel to be able to thwart the Hawks attempts at inverted offense.

After the last two Big 5 games, I think the focus should be there from the Wildcats. It will be interesting to see if they can have the type of game the numbers lead us to expect, but the opportunity is there for them to earn a resounding win.

The game is scheduled for 3 PM on ESPN2.