Published Feb 8, 2020
Game Preview: Seton Hall
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
Publisher
Twitter
@JoshNaso

Villanova returns to the court Saturday, and the road doesn’t get any easier for the suddenly sliding ‘Cats. After losing two games in a row, the Wildcats welcome 12th-ranked and Big East-leading Seton Hall to Wells Fargo Center.

The Pirates are 17-5 overall and 9-1 in the Big East. Their best non-conference win is over Maryland while they suffered two close losses to Michigan State and Oregon. In the Big East they have notable wins over Marquette and Butler on the road.

In traditional metrics, the teams are incredibly evenly matched. Seton Hall averages 74.5 points per game to Villanova’s 74.0 and allows 65.5 to Villanova’s 66.9. The Pirates grab 37.5 rebounds per night while ‘Nova pulls in 35.9 and Seton Hall dishes 14.5 assists, just below Villanova’s 14.6. Seton Hall shoots 44.7 percent from the floor while Villanova has connected on 44.2 percent.

All-American candidate Myles Powell leads the way with 22 points per game, adding 4.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists. Backcourt mate Quincy McKnight chips in 11.3 points and 5.5 assists. He’s done a masterful job orchestrating the Seton Hall offense, as his assist rate is among the best in the country while also being one of the Hall’s most reliable three-point threats. Sandro Mamukelashvili recently returned from a nearly two-month absence and averages 9.8 points and 4.8 rebounds on the season. He leads the team with a 37 percent three-point percentage. Sophomore Jared Rhoden has played well for the Pirates, chipping in 9.2 points and 6.5 boards. 7-2 Romaro Gill has been a revelation for Seton Hall with 7.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.6 blocks.

The KenPom numbers reflect well for Seton Hall. The Pirates are No. 13 overall, 41st offensively and 12th defensively.

Offensively, the Pirates have been effective from two-point range but not particularly efficient from beyond the arc. They’ve gotten to the line at a good clip, although their free-throw percentage (69.1) leaves something to be desired. They rank middle of the pack in turnover percentage and have had a propensity to get shots blocked.

Defensively, the numbers are impressive. Hall ranks 10th in effective field goal percentage, 20th in three-point percentage, and 25th in two-point percentage. Anchored by Gill, the Pirates rank 4th in block percentage. There are two potential dents in the armor, however. The Pirates have had a tendency to send opponents to the line and have been susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds.

Synergy paints a similar picture.

Seton Hall has decent offensive numbers: 0.912 points per possession, ranking in the 66th percentile.

The offense has largely consisted of spot-ups and the pick and roll. The Pirates rank average in spot-up situations, very good using the P/R ballhandler, and very good using the P/R roll man.

McKnight has excelled as a shooter and as the P/R ballhandler. Powell is also adept at initiating the pick and roll, and while he hasn’t been overly efficient as a shooter Big East fans know he can get hot and change the course of a game in a big way. Gill has been lethal as a roll man, and Tyrese Samuel has been effective as well.

Hall has also been effective using cuts and screens, with Powell and McKnight exploiting screens and Gill, Mamukelashvili, Rhoden, Ike Obiagu, and Myles Cale all causing mischief with cuts.

Defensively, Hall gives up 0.785 PPP, good for the 95th percentile.

As you might expect from their defensive shooting percentages, the Pirates have defended spot-ups extremely well. But really, they’ve defended every play type tracked by Synergy well, earning a “very good” or “excellent” ranking in every type except offensive rebounds and screens.

Anthony Nelson (14.5 minutes per game) is the only player with a “poor” rating on defense. Gill, despite the rim protection ability, ranks “average,” struggling most when he’s forced to cover movement, such as with the P/R roll man. Powell has had some issues with the P/R ballhandler, while McKnight has struggled in isolation.

Overall the best ways to attack Seton Hall look to be with the roll man and with a lot of screens, neither of which Villanova does a whole lot of in terms of generating offense. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot of pick and rolls initiated by whoever Powell is guarding or attempts to get McKnight in isolation with Saddiq Bey or Collin Gillespie.

Two big things we’ll be keeping an eye on is the three-point line and Villanova on the offensive glass.

Seton Hall is capable from beyond the arc, but the numbers don’t terrify you. However, the Pirates defend the three extremely well. ‘Nova has shown an ability to be versatile offensively and take what the defense is giving it, but we also know they want to let it fly from deep. If one team can open an advantage from three, it will be a big advantage.

‘Nova hasn’t been prolific on the offensive glass, but Seton Hall has been susceptible there and a great way to neutralize an elite defense is with extra opportunities. In addition, offensive rebounds are a great way to get open looks from deep, so if the ‘Cats can get to work on the offensive boards it would go a long way towards a win.

There doesn’t appear to be a huge correlation between scoring numbers and wins and losses for the Pirates. They’ve been able to win both high-scoring affairs and grind it out type games. However, they have surrendered more than 70 in four of their five losses. I don’t think that’s a magic number like it has been in some other games, and I think ‘Nova would be comfortable in a slower-paced game, but it’s something to keep in mind.

This is a huge game for Villanova’s Big East title hopes. A loss would drop the ‘Cats three games behind Seton Hall in the conference standings and deliver a huge blow to their regular-season title hopes. Conversely, a win pulls them to within a game, puts pressure back on Seton Hall, and technically gives ‘Nova control over its fate as they could potentially move into a tie with a win over the Pirates in their second meeting in early March and would then hold the tiebreaker with two head-to-head wins. Obviously, that scenario is dependent on how things shake out between now and then, but a win would be huge both mathematically and mentally.

Adding to the pressure is the current two-game losing streak, which the ‘Cats will be eager to break. Three straight losses is never a good look, especially not in February. A disappointing showing against Creighton and some tough luck at Butler has put the ‘Cats in a tough spot, and it will be interesting to see how they respond on Saturday afternoon.

The game is scheduled for a 2:30 tip on FOX.