Villanova will kick off one of the biggest sports days in Philadelphia history on Sunday when it hosts Seton Hall ahead of the Eagles’ playing in the Super Bowl. It will be the ‘Cats first look at the Pirates, who have had a bit of a curious season so far.
Seton Hall has gotten itself into a decent position, sitting at 17-5 overall and 6-3 in the Big East, and appear on track for another NCAA tournament berth. But how the Pirates have gotten here is interesting, especially considering the expectations entering the season.
The Pirates had a decent non-conference run, going 11-2 and securing solid victories over Texas Tech and Louisville. But they saw some of that work undone by a terrible loss to Rutgers.
Things got even stranger for the Pirates once they started conference play. Seton Hall is 4-1 at home in Big East play and just 2-2 on the road. Only two of the Pirates’ nine conference games have been decided by fewer than 10 points, a five-point win over St. John’s and a three-point win over Butler. Seton Hall’s three conference losses have come by an average of 18.7 points.
Despite an incredibly talented and experienced roster, Seton Hall has failed to produce any dominant runs in the schedule or establish something they do at an elite level or can truly rely on. KenPom ranks the Pirates 43 in offensive efficiency and 32 in defensive efficiency, both good numbers but not indicative of dominance. Their 78.5 points per game rank 70th in the country, while their 70 points against rank 125th.
The key quartet for Seton Hall has lived up to expectations.
Desi Rodriguez leads the team with 17.3 points per game. He adds five rebounds and shoots 50% from the field.
Myles Powell adds 14.5 points and has been the Hall’s best three-point shooter at 41.3%.
Khadeen Carrington chips in 14.2 points to go with 4.4 assists and three rebounds.
Angel Delgado has been the force he was expected do be, averaging a double-double with 13.2 points and 12.1 rebounds. He adds three assists, and his ability to pass out of the post and off the glass has marked a huge area of growth in his game, adding another dimension to his play.
Forward Ismael Sanogo has averaged 5.2 points per game but is averaging nine points over his last six.
Michael Nzei averages 4.8 points per game but has shown flashes. He scored 14 against VCU and leads the team in FG% at 56%. The Pirates are 8-1 when Nzei scores in double figures in his career.
Seton Hall has been most effective in spot ups, in transition, and utilizing the pick and roll ballhandler.
The Pirates have been most susceptible on defense against the pick and roll. Despite being a good rebounding team, Seton Hall has allowed opponents to convert offensive rebounds to points when they manage to grab them.
So without a clear area to attack or to try to take away from the Pirates, what are the keys to a ‘Nova victory?
As has become the norm, the ‘Cats offense is so good that if they simply execute the way they are supposed to, they should have no trouble scoring the ball. Powell, Carrington, and Nzei have gotten beaten by shooters, while Rodriquez and Delgado have been very good against them. Rodriguez and Nzei have struggled defending the pick and roll ballhandler. Sanogo and Powell have struggled in isolation. Rodriguez has had difficulty defending screens. Again, ‘Nova should be able to score simply by doing what it does, but those are some specific areas they could look to exploit.
Defensively, it’s a little more complicated. The Pirates have four legitimate scorers, each with different skill sets. Powell and Rodriguez are the best shooters, while Carrington is solid as well. Rodriguez and Powell are adept at running the pick and roll, add Rodriguez can score in the post. Seton Hall likes to get its bigs, particularly Nzei and Sanogo, moving with cuts, and they have been effective in that role.
Attempting to pick one or two players to take away won’t work, because the Pirates have other players who can step in. Likewise, Seton Hall doesn’t overly rely on any particular attack to generate offense. While this can at time be a problem for the Pirates, as they don’t have a go-to overwhelming strength to rely on, it can also make them difficult to game plan for.
Seton Hall shoots just 36.5% from deep and rely heavily on two-pointers to get points. Nearly 55% of Seton Hall’s offense comes from inside the arc. Defending the post, preventing drives to the basket, and defending the mid-range is one way to look to slow the Seton Hall attack.
Another key will be keeping the Pirates off the free throw line. Seton Hall doesn’t get a ton of points at the line, nor does it shoot a great percentage (67.6). However, the Pirates are 13-1 this season when attempting more free throws than the opponent. Traditionally ‘Nova has been dominant in this area, playing disciplined defense while getting to the line itself. But this season this hasn’t been as much of an advantage as we have gotten used to.
Seton Hall can be turned over, averaging 14 per game. Forcing turnovers is another area that could help decide the game.
Finally, ‘Nova must hold its own on the glass. Seton Hall is a good rebounding team and have a 35% offensive rebounding percentage. The Pirates are middle-of-the-pack in terms of giving up offensive rebounds. If the ‘Cats find themselves getting dominated on the boards, especially giving Seton Hall second and third chances, it could be a long day.
KenPom predicts a 14-point ‘Nova win. But the Pirates won’t be a pushover. They have an experienced core that is used to playing in big games. Seton Hall is 3-1 this season against ranked opponents and is tied with Butler for the most wins against the ‘Cats since the Big East restructuring with three. The Pirates won’t be intimidated and ‘Nova will need to execute to get the win. It’s another great test for Villanova.
The game is at noon on Fox.