Game Preview: Providence Round 2

The first meeting between the teams resulted in a 64-60 Villanova win on January 25. Since that loss, the Friars have gone 5-2 and earned a road win at Butler and home wins over Creighton, Seton Hall, and Marquette. That conversation has pushed the Friars to the fringe of the bubble conversation, but at 16-12 they don’t have a whole lot of room for error heading down the stretch.

Providence ranks 49th in KenPom, 83rd offensively and 39th defensively.

The offense hasn’t been efficient, as the Friars shoot 40.8 percent from the field overall and 32.4 percent from three. They rank 296th in effective field goal percentage, 315th in two-point percentage, and 210th in three-point percentage. They also rank 210th in turnover percentage. The one big saving grace at that end of the floor has been their ability to clean the offensive glass, as they rank 26th in offensive rebound percentage. Providence also gets to the line at a respectable rate.

Defensively, the numbers are better. Providence has decent numbers in opponent’s two-and-three-point percentage, but where the Friars really stand out is in the turnover department. They rank 46th in opponent’s turnover percentage and an impressive 13th in steal percentage. The extra chances generated from those turnovers and from the offensive glass have helped to mitigate the poor shooting.

We can see all these factors at play when we look at the last meeting between the teams. Villanova played good defense, holding Providence to 31.7 percent shooting and just 13 percent from three, both well below Providence’s already shaky shooting numbers. ‘Nova also did a good job taking care of the ball, committing just 10 turnovers while forcing 11. The Wildcats didn’t have their best shooting night, hitting 43.8 percent overall and just 28.6 percent from three, but they were a solid 15-of-27 from two-point range while Providence managed to go just 17-of-40 inside the arc.

However, Villanova ran into serious trouble on the glass, helping Providence stay in the game. The ‘Cats were dominated on the boards 45-33 and gave up a troublesome 16 offensive rebounds. Providence took 15 more shots than Villanova and was able to keep the pressure on as a result.

There are a couple of potentially interesting changes heading into Saturday’s game, one positive and one negative for Villanova.

The negative is that we just learned that Collin Gillespie is questionable with a deep thigh bruise. Gillespie is Villanova’s unquestioned leader and scored a team-high 18 points in the last meeting between the teams. His absence would be a big blow for the Wildcats and would clearly up the difficulty of getting a win.

On the positive side is the recent play of Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree. He played just four minutes in the first meeting and didn’t record a stat. However, Cosby-Roundtree has played 10+ minutes in each of the last four games and has given the ‘Cats some solid minutes. He scored 10 points against DePaul on February 19 and grabbed seven rebounds. He also had seven boards Wednesday against St. John’s and is averaging 4.8 rebounds over the last four games. If he can continue that type of play, it could help to offset some of the rebounding issues the Wildcats had last time out against the Friars.

Alpha Diallo continues to be the engine for Providence, and he scored 35 points in the Friars’ win over Seton Hall on February 15. David Duke has emerged as Providence’s best three-point shooter at 42.7 percent, although he’s been on a bit of a cold streak. ‘Nova can’t let him heat up Saturday. Luwane Pipkins has stepped up for the Friars recently as well. He dropped 22 in the Friars’ win over Butler on February 1 and has scored 13, 16, and 24 points respectively in Providence’s recent wins over Seton Hall, Georgetown, and Marquette.

‘Nova did an excellent job on Diallo in the first meeting, holding him scoreless. Duke and Pipkins scored 11 each, but it was Nate Watson who did most of the damage with 18 points and nine rebounds, including six offensive rebounds. Duke also added 10 rebounds.

70 could once again be a magic number on Saturday. The Friars are just 4-10 when they fail to reach the 70-point mark while they are 12-2 when going over that number. Something to keep an eye on Saturday.

So, we’ll be keeping an eye on the turnover numbers, the rebounding battle (especially ‘Nova on the defensive glass), and the pace.

Much like Wednesday’s game against St. John’s, this is one Villanova will be expected to win. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the ‘Cats an 82.3 percent chance to win and KenPom predicts a nine-point ‘Nova victory. But there are no gimmies in this year’s Big East and Providence has everything to play for. A win over the ‘Cats would be a huge boost to their tournament hopes, and when you combine that with the fact that each loss the rest of the way would be a big blow to those hopes we can expect to get the Friars’ best shot. The uncertainty surrounding Gillespie’s status is another huge factor.

If Gillespie is out, the obvious candidates to step up are Saddiq Bey, Jermaine Samuels, and Justin Moore. Cole Swider could also be relied upon to pick up some of the slack, and we already touched on the potential impact Cosby-Roundtree could have.

Considering all the circumstances, it should be a good test for the ‘Cats with or without Gillespie. Providence is in desperation mode and playing with a ton of confidence right now. ‘Nova will have to match the energy and intensity from the Friars.

The game is scheduled for a noon tip on FOX.