Villanova will play arguably its biggest Big East game since at least 2019 on Tuesday night when it takes on No. 8 Providence at the Dunk. It’s the first time the Wildcats have played a top 10 Big East opponent since February of 2019 and the game will have a massive impact on the Big East title race.

“Big game, we’re playing the top team in the conference, we’re playing on the road at their place, two top 10 teams,” Jay Wright said. “We feel fortunate to be able to play in this environment, in this great game. I hope both teams put together a game that lives up to the hype.”

The Friars, who are on an eight-game winning streak, are a fascinating team, with much of that intrigue stemming from the discrepancy between their on-court results and the story that the advanced metrics tell about them.

Providence enters with an elite record of 21-2, currently sitting 11-1 in Big East play. The Friars have a road win over Wisconsin and a home win over Texas Tech under their belts, and have beaten UConn (away), Seton Hall, Xavier and Marquette in Big East play. It’s an impressive resume with undeniable on-court success.

But the advanced metrics don’t view the Friars as one of the truly elite teams in the country. Haslametrics has Providence ranked 53rd. KenPom has the Friars ranked 47th. For reference, the other four teams in the country with two losses are ranked (by KenPom) No. 1 (Gonzaga), No. 2 (Arizona), No. 5 (Auburn) and No. 26 (Murray State). That’s quite a discrepancy, and the computers view Providence as a good, tournament-quality team but not the elite one that its record suggests.

As the season winds down, it will be interesting to see both how the Friars fare in tough games down the stretch as well as in tournament play and if the metrics start to move more in line with Providence’s record or if the Friars end up looking more like a top 50 team than a top 10 one.

For now, none of that matters. Providence will have every opportunity to prove itself over the coming weeks, with a huge opportunity to do so on Tuesday night. What matters to us, now, is what we can learn about the Friars ahead of the huge matchup. Let’s dig in.

Providence’s success has largely been driven by performing above average in a lot of areas while not having any glaring weaknesses. The Friars have also been helped by having great balance throughout the rotation.

“You could go through probably their top six and there’s an issue there,” Wright said. “Each one of those guys you’re concerned about. I think that’s what makes them such a great team, depth and balance.”

“They have a very balanced team,” Justin Moore added. “They have multiple bigs that can finish in the paint, dominate in the paint. They have guards that can really score the ball and facilitate. I think they have a great balance where it’s not just one guy that can get it going. We’ve gotta be ready to adjust and make adjustments on defense.”

6-10 Nate Watson leads the way with 13.6 points and 5.7 rebounds. He’s hitting 55.4% of his FG attempts.

“He’s always been a problem for us no matter who we’ve had,” Wright said of Watson. “He’s been a problem every year. He’s a guy that does so many things intelligently when he doesn’t have the ball in his hands.”

Al Durham adds 13.2 points, 3.2 assists and three rebounds while Jared Bynum rounds out the double figure scorers for the Friars with 11.6 points. Bynum adds 4.2 assists and 2.7 rebounds and has been Providence’s best 3-point shooter at 46%.

Forward Noah Horchler has been superb playing a classic stretch four type of game. He chips in 9.9 points while leading the team with 8.5 rebounds and has connected on 42.3% of his 3-point attempts.

A.J. Reeves adds 8.9 points, 2.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists. Justin Minaya chips in 6.6 points and 5.8 rebounds while hitting 36.1% from deep. Ed Croswell adds 5.7 points and 4.5 rebounds while Alyn Breed chips in 3.5 points.

There is one area where Providence has been elite: getting to the free throw line. Haslametrics ranks the Friars 3rd in free throw attempt rate and KenPom has them 10th in FTA/FGA. They’ve also done a good job of converting those opportunities, hitting 74.6%. Providence has gotten 22.6% of its points from the free throw line, the 12th highest percentage in the country.

Providence has been above average on the offensive glass and been elite at converting the second-chance opportunities it does get into points. KenPom has the Friars 124th in offensive rebound percentage while Haslametrics ranks them 59th in potential second-chance points, but Haslametrics ranks them 12th in second-chance conversion percentage.

The Friars have a decent 3-point percentage of 34.6%, but there is a significant drop in individual 3-point proficiency after Bynum, Horchler and Minaya.

The mid-range has been Providence’s least proficient area on offense, and it will be interesting to see if ‘Nova attempts to filter the Friars into mid-range attempts.

Defensively, Providence is powered by elite inside defense. KenPom ranks the Friars 37th in opponent’s 2-point percentage at 45.9% and Haslametrics has them 28th in near-proximity defense. Villanova has found a lot of success inside recently, so it will be interesting to see how things play out inside.

The Friars have played respectable defense beyond the arc, limiting opponents to 31.2%.

Providence has also done well defending without fouling. The Friars rank 30th in opponent’s free throw attempt rate, per Haslametrics, and 25th in opponent’s FTA/FGA on KenPom. Providence opponents have gotten just 14.6% of their points from the line (319th).

One thing Providence has not done defensively is force turnovers.

There will be a lot to keep an eye on Tuesday night.

The inside game should be interesting. ‘Nova has found some offensive success inside over the last few weeks, but Providence has been stout defending inside. Will Villanova be able to continue the inside advantages it has had recently?

The 3-point line could be of note as well. ‘Nova shoots it slightly better than Providence (35.9% to 34.6%) while Providence defends the 3 ever so slightly better than ‘Nova (31.2% to 31.6%). If one team opens an advantage from deep it could go a long way towards deciding the outcome.

The free throw line could be huge as well. The Friars have done an excellent job weaponizing the line, getting a ton of attempts and converting them at a good clip. Sometimes this is something that is out of your control, and the concern for a home whistle in what will be an absolutely raucous atmosphere is a legitimate concern, but Villanova will have to do its best to defend without fouling while trying to find ways to get to the line itself.

Rebounding could end up being a wash, as the numbers show two teams that are evenly matched on the boards. However, the Friars have a trio of strong rebounders in Watson, Horchler and Minaya and even a slight edge on the glass can turn close games, so we’ll be keeping an eye on the battle of the boards.

We should also note that Providence has been fantastic in close games. The Friars are 9-0 in games decided by five points or less. At some point that stops being a fluke or luck, and it’s something that could come into play if this game goes the way it is expected to.

“Every game we prepare for a close game late,” Wright said. “We always do prepare for, like ‘what are we gonna do in a one-possession game.’ These guys have been outstanding executing offensively and defensively. I think they’ve got great balance and great role definition and I think that’s why they’ve been great at the end of games. Also great coaching.”

While we try to stay away form hyperbole, it’s hard to overstate the importance of this game.

Providence has been dealing with naysayers and trying to command respect commensurate with its record all season. A win over a program like Villanova would do wonders for that quest. More importantly, a win on Tuesday almost ensures a Big East regular season title for the Friars, something they’ve never accomplished. It would take a monumental collapse from Providence in addition to perfect play from Villanova for the Friars to lose the conference title if they win on Tuesday.

That makes the importance of Tuesday’s game for ‘Nova clear. Win, and you have a legitimate shot to overtake Providence and claim the regular season crown. Of course, it’s also an opportunity for a top 10 win and, more importantly, a Quad 1 win. The implications of this game on NCAA tournament seeding are huge. There’s still a fairly wide range of seed lines the ‘Cats could end up on, and a win Tuesday would go a long way in pushing the ‘Cats towards the better end of that spectrum.

One last note. There was a lot of lamenting from ‘Nova fans earlier in the season about losses to UCLA and Baylor, and more generally about the schedule and the lack of home games in the non-conference. Tuesday’s game is exactly the kind of game where you hope to see the fruits of those scheduling decisions. The Dunk will be absolutely rocking, and the lessons learned playing at UCLA and Baylor and playing teams like Tennessee and Purdue on neutral courts should serve the ‘Cats well Tuesday night in what is expected to be a frenzied atmosphere.

It should be quite a scene and it will be both a great test and a great opportunity for the Wildcats. One team will come out with an incredibly important win. It should be fascinating to watch it play out.

The game is scheduled for an 8 p.m. tip on CBSSN.