On Saturday, Villanova wraps up the 2020-21 regular season with a visit to the Providence Friars. Villanova has already wrapped up the regular season Big East title and will be looking to establish its footing without Collin Gillespie as it prepares for postseason play.

“We’re always ready for a battle when we play Providence,” Jay Wright said. “We have great respect for them and we’re expecting a difficult game.”

The Friars enter the game with a 12-12 record and an 8-10 mark in Big East play. They are ranked 74th in KenPom (69th offensively, 88th defensively) and 76th by Haslametrics (83rd offensively, 88th defensively).

Providence’s biggest strength, at least statistically, is its 3-point defense. Opponents have shot just 30.2% from long-range against the Friars, the 28th best mark in the country. The Friars have also taken care of the ball reasonably well, ranking 69th in turnover percentage.

However, opponents have been successful converting from 2-point range, due in part to the Friars surrendering a high number of attempts near the rim. Providence has also struggled from 3-point range (32.5%, 233rd) and from the free throw line (71.5%, 158th). In addition, opponents have pulled down 30% of their offensive rebound opportunities, placing Providence at 250th in that metric.

We saw some of this play out in the first meeting between the teams, a 71-56 Villanova victory. ‘Nova had a 28-22 advantage in points in the paint. Providence shot 31.3% from 3 and Villanova had a six-point advantage from beyond the arc despite the Friar 3-point defense showing through with ‘Nova hitting just 28% from deep. ‘Nova had a 14-8 edge in offensive rebounds and turned that into a 20-7 advantage in second-chance points.

However, there were some anomalies as well. One that worked out in Villanova’s favor was the 19 turnovers committed by Providence, leading to a 17-7 ‘Nova advantage in points off turnovers. On the other hand, the Wildcats were unable to take advantage of Providence’s 2-point defense, hitting just 44.7%.

On paper, Villanova had a good game defensively. Providence scored just 56 points, the second-fewest Nova has allowed this season. The Friars shot 38.5% overall and 31.3% from 3. But Wright doesn’t think the defensive showing was as good as it looked.

“We thought they got a lot of good shots that they just missed,” Wright said. “We didn’t do as good a job as it looked defensively.”

‘Nova did do an excellent job on Providence’s talented duo of David Duke and Nate Watson. Duke struggled, shooting just 4-17 from the field and 1-6 from 3 for 10 points. He did grab 11 rebounds and dish out four assists, but also committed six turnovers. Watson, meanwhile, had a relatively quiet 12 points and just two rebounds while committing four turnovers. The Wildcats would certainly take similar results on Saturday.

It was Alyn Breed who did the most damage to the ‘Cats in the last meeting. He scored 18 points on 5-9 shooting including 2-3 from 3. He also got to the line seven times, hitting six. In addition, Breed pulled down 11 rebounds and dished out four assists.

One difference between the first meeting and this one will be the presence of Jared Bynum. Bynum missed over a month with a leg injury, including the last meeting against Villanova, but returned February 13. He has played in the Friars’ last four games and has scored in double figures in each of the last two games, shooting 50% from the field and 37.5% from 3.

Noah Horchler has also seen a significant uptick in minutes since logging only seven minutes against Villanova. In the nine games since, Horchler has played more than 20 minutes in all nine and exceeded 30 minutes in six of those contests. He’s scored in double figures three times, including a 20-point game against Xavier on February 24.

For Villanova, the most important part of this game will be getting its footing without Gillespie and trying to establish some rhythm. We’ll be paying attention to the rotation, the point guard minutes when Justin Moore is on the bench, who steps up at each end of the floor, and the general flow and connectivity at each end of the floor.

While establishing some rhythm and confidence will be important for the ‘Cats, it would still be nice to win the game while doing so. In terms of what we’ll be watching that could determine the outcome, we’ll be watching the 3-point line, turnovers, and second-chance points.

Villanova will look to replicate its last performance against Providence as well as try to build on some of the things it did well against Creighton on Wednesday as it attempts to end the regular season on a positive note.

The game is scheduled for a 2:30 tipoff on FOX.