Villanova will look to build on this week’s win over Seton Hall when it hosts Providence on Saturday afternoon. The Friars are coming off their best win of the season, a 74-70 road victory over Creighton on Wednesday.

“We always have difficult games against Providence. Ed Cooley is a great coach, he always has his team ready, they always improve, they’re always playing their best basketball at the end of the year,” Jay Wright said. “They are long, they are outstanding defensively and they’re getting better and better offensively.”

Providence sits at 8-6 overall and 4-4 in the Big East. KenPom ranks the Friars 58th overall, 35th offensively and 89th defensively. Haslametrics has the Friars 56th overall, 45th offensively and 97th defensively.

Offensively, Providence has gone against the trend a little bit by getting 56.1% of its points from 2-point range, the 46th highest mark in the country. The Friars rank 25th in the country in “near proximity” attempts per 100 possessions, per Haslametrics. And while the mid-range game has come under fire in some basketball circles, Providence has been using that area to its advantage, ranking 13th in the country in mid-range field goal percentage, per Haslametrics. Conversely, the Friars rank just 271st in 3-point attempts per 100 possessions. They get just 24.9% of their points from beyond the arc, a number that ranks 300th out of 357 Division 1 teams. Providence has connected on just 32.5% of its long-range attempts this season.

Defensively, Providence has done a great job defending the 3-point line, holding opponents to just 32.1% shooting from beyond the arc. That number drops to 29.8% when adjusted for the average opponent, which ranks 32nd in the country, per Haslametrics. Interestingly, Providence has been above average on the offensive glass, grabbing 31.2% of offensive rebounding opportunities and ranking 67th in Haslametrics “potential quick points off offensive rebounds” and 37th in “second chance conversion percentage” but have also allowed opponents to have success on the offensive glass (29.9% offensive rebounding percentage ranks 237th, and ranking 291st opponent’s second chance conversion percentage).

Providence is powered by the impressive inside-out duo of guard David Duke and big man Nate Watson.

Duke leads the way with 19.4 points per game to go with 5.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists. He’s also connected on 45.1% of his 3-point attempts. Duke stood out to Wright in Providence’s win over Creighton. “I thought what was most impressive was they got a huge lead in the first half without David Duke really scoring, he was just playing as a facilitator and I think that’s what makes him great, he can carry them as a scorer when they need him to and he can make everybody around him better,” Wright said. “It starts with him.”

Watson isn’t far behind, adding 19.1 points and 7.1 rebounds. “I think Watson’s developed into a high-level post player that scores, gets fouls, makes free throws, outstanding offensive rebounder,” Wright said. “Just look at film from last year and then looking at him this year he’s in great shape, stronger, footwork is better, decision making is better, defensively he’s better. He has just improved, and I think that’s a credit to their staff and to him. He is truly one of the best players in the league.”

Jermaine Samuels has had plenty of battles with Watson during his time at Villanova and knows the challenges Watson can present. “I’m expecting him to use his physicality, ability to post up, ability to rebound,” Samuels said. “And he’s also improved on his mid-range jumper, so we’ll be able to look out for that. He’s a great player.”

A.J. Reeves (8.7 points, 3.9 rebounds), Greg Gantt (4.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists), and Jared Bynum, who has been dealing with an injury, have shared the bulk of the minutes with Duke and Watson. Alyn Breed (3.5 points, 1.5 rebounds, 14.2 minutes) and Jimmy Nichols Jr. (6.2 points, 2.4 rebounds, 16.9 minutes) have begun to step up as well. “The kid Breed plays a great game, Nichols is really starting to get comfortable offensively,” Wright said.

In addition, Noah Horchler has added 4.6 points and four rebounds in just over 14 minutes per game.

We aren’t expecting a ton of turnovers in this game. Villanova has been elite taking care of the ball this season, and Providence has done a fairly good job of that as well. Likewise, neither team has forced a lot of turnovers. The numbers tell us to expect a relatively clean game in the turnover department, but if one team starts to open an advantage it could shift things in their favor quickly.

The 3-point line, particularly Villanova’s offense against Providence’s defense, will be another area we’re watching. As we mentioned, Providence has defended the arc extremely well, and we know that Villanova loves to let it fly from deep. The team that develops an advantage here should get a big boost in this game.

Villanova’s 2-point defense will be another area to key in on. We noted that Providence favors the interior and has done a great job getting looks near the bucket as well as at being efficient in the mid-range. Meanwhile, ‘Nova has had some issues preventing opponents from getting to the hoop. It will be interesting to see how Wright and Villanova look to defend the Friars and if the Wildcats pack in the defense a little bit to try to force more 3-point attempts from Providence.

Finally, we’ll be watching the rebounding battle, which has some quirks in this matchup. We mentioned that Providence has been very good on the offensive glass but has had trouble keeping opponents from grabbing offensive rebounds. Conversely, Villanova hasn’t grabbed a ton of offensive rebounds but has done an excellent job keeping opponents off the offensive glass. Does Villanova’s elite defensive rebounding keep the Friars off the offensive glass? Can Villanova’s average offensive rebounding exploit the issues Providence has had on the defensive glass? We’ll definitely be keeping an eye on how the rebounding battle is breaking down on Saturday afternoon.

Villanova and Providence have had some great battles since the start of the new Big East and Saturday’s matchup offers plenty of intrigue. Both teams will be looking to build on an impressive win in their previous games and there are some interesting stylistic and strength/weakness factors in this matchup.

“You got two of the best players in the conference (Duke and Watson), everybody around them is starting to play better,” Wright said. “It’s gonna be a really difficult matchup.”