Villanova will look to keep things rolling on Saturday afternoon when it heads to “The Dunk” to take on Providence.
The season hasn’t panned out the way the Friars had hoped. They stumbled to a 7-6 record in the non-conference, including a brutal three-game stretch in which they lost to Penn, Long Beach State, and Charleston. A dominant win over Texas to close the non-conference, combined with an impressive 3-0 start in the Big East that included wins over upstart DePaul and at Marquette, signaled hope for a turnaround. But Providence lost three of the next four and enter Saturday’s contest sitting at 11-9 and 4-3 in the Big East.
The offensive numbers aren’t pretty for the Friars. They average 71.4 points per game and rank 106th offensively in KenPom (73rd overall). They rank just 298th in effective field goal percentage, 307th in two-point field goal percentage, 219th in three-point percentage, and 259 in free throw percentage. The struggles putting the ball in the basket have made Providence reliant on extra possessions from offensive rebounds and turnovers to generate offense.
The Friars just don’t have anyone they can lean on offensively outside of Alpha Diallo. Diallo leads the team in points (14.0), rebounds (8.3), and steals (1.9). He also commits 3.1 turnovers per game. David Duke is the only other Friar in double figures with 12.8 points, adding a team-leading 3.8 assists. Duke is also the team's best three-point shooter at 46.2 percent.
Nate Watson (9.3), Luwane Pipkins (8.6), Maliek White (8.3), Emmitt Holt (6.4), and A.J. Reeves (6.2) round out the other key contributors for Providence. Kalif Young chips in 4.9 points in 19.7 minutes.
Defensively, Providence ranks 65th in KenPom and has been middle of the pack in terms of the field goal percentages. The Friars have been prone to giving up offensive rebounds, but have been good forcing turnovers, ranking 36th in opponent’s turnover percentage and 9th in steal percentage.
A look at the Synergy numbers finds the Friars ranking in just the 20th percentile offensively with 0.836 points per possession and a paltry 0.813 PPP in the halfcourt.
25 percent of the Friars’ offense comes from spot-ups, where they rank in just the 8th percentile. It doesn’t get much better in the next three most common play types for the Providence, as it ranks in the 28th percentile in transition, the 38th in post-ups, and the 5th off cuts. Finally, on its fifth most common play type (off screens) we find the Providence earns a rating of “very good.” The Friars have also been very good converting offensive rebounds and they rank 31st in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Providence runs a surprisingly small amount of pick and roll and have struggled using the ballhandler but have had some success using the roll man. They’ve also had some success with handoffs, but handoffs and the roll man make up just 3.8 percent of the offensive production. Providence has also struggled in isolation.
Diallo is a good player and can take over games, but he hasn’t been efficient this season. Duke, Watson, Holt, and Young have been the most efficient offensive players for Providence, with Pipkins and Reeves joining Diallo in the less efficient group.
Overall, Providence hasn’t been great in transition, but Diallo, Duke, and Holt can do some damage when able to get out and run. White’s been good off cuts, while Reeves and Pipkins have had success coming off screens. Young, Watson, and Holt have done damage on the offensive glass.
Defensively, the Friars rank in the 70th percentile with 0.833 points per possession. They’ve been better limiting teams in transition than they have been in the halfcourt.
In addition to transition, the Friars have done well defending cuts, post-ups, handoffs, and the roll man in the P/R. They’ve been average against spot-ups and in isolation and have struggled guarding the pick and roll ballhandler.
Diallo and Duke have been the best individual defenders, while Reeves and Holt have struggled the most. Pipkins, White, and Young have been average.
Looking at some trends from the results this season, Providence has been held to 65 or fewer points seven times this season and is 1-6 in those games. They are also 2-7 when allowing 70 points or more.
On paper, all indications are Villanova should be able to win this game. But there are no gimmies in this year’s Big East, especially on the road. The Dunk can be a particularly difficult place to play, and Providence is in desperation mode.
For Villanova, pace and possessions will be key. I’d expect the ‘Cats to work to control the tempo. Taking care of the ball will be important, as Providence has been good at forcing turnovers and rely on those extra possessions. Likewise, keeping the Friars off the offensive glass will be key as they have done a good job there and it is another way for them to get extra possessions. Those will be the areas we’ll be watching most closely on Saturday.
Like every Big East game, it will be both a test and an opportunity for the ‘Cats. Any road win you can steal in league play is huge. Between the crowd and Providence’s current situation, the Friars should come out ready to play, and the Wildcats will need to execute to keep their winning steak going and to nab an important road victory.
The game is scheduled for 1 PM on CBS.
