Villanova is back in action Saturday when it travels to Providence to take on the Friars. Providence sits at 10-4 and 0-1 in the Big East, having lost to Creighton in its conference opener.
By standard metrics, the teams are pretty evenly matched. The Wildcats have a slight advantage in points for, points against, and field goal percentage while Providence holds a slight edge in rebounds, assists, blocks and steals.
The Friars are currently ranked 67th in KenPom, checking in at 81 offensively and 66 defensively (Villanova is 26th overall).
Providence will be without prized freshman A.J. Reeves, who is nursing a foot injury. Reeves had been averaging 14.2 points per game while shooting 45.3 percent from 3.
Speaking of the 3-ball, the Friars have shot well from deep this season, sitting at 38.4 percent on the season. In addition to Reeves, Alpha Diallo, Isaiah Jackson, and Maliek White all shoot better than 40 percent from beyond the arc.
Diallo leads the way for Providence with 17.4 points per game. Nate Watson rounds out the double figure scorers with 10.1 per game. Jackson adds 9.5, while White and David Duke chip in 7.8 and 7.5 respectively.
Per Synergy Sports, Providence scores 0.914 points per possession, ranking in the 51st percentile. The Friars have been most effective in spot up situations, off cuts, off screens, in isolation, and utilizing the roll man in the pick and roll. They’ve struggled in the post and using the pick and roll ballhandler.
Providence likes to use cuts to get Watson and Diallo free, and Watson has been particularly effective in these situations.
The Friars have struggled from the free throw line, hitting just 67.2 percent.
Defensively, Providence gives up 0.87 points per possession, ranking in the 55th percentile. The Friars have done well defending shooters but have had some issues giving up points from the 3-point line. They also do well defending cuts, the post, and the pick and roll ballhandler. They’ve struggled defending the roll man and have been susceptible on the offensive glass. They’ve also had issues guarding transition and screens.
White and Watson have been Providence’s best individual defenders, while Jackson and Kalif Young have had the most trouble at that end.
While Providence has had some issues giving up offensive rebounds, it has also done a good job cleaning up their own misses. Rebounding could be a key on Saturday, especially if one team starts to gain an advantage on the offensive glass.
The free throw line could loom large as well, especially in a close game. The ‘Cats have an advantage at the line, and if that bears out Saturday it could give them a big boost.
The 3-point line will be another area we’ll have a close eye on. Providence has been very good from deep, while Villanova has been hit or miss but continue to love the 3 as a weapon. Whoever gets the better of the deep ball will be in good shape on Saturday.
Defensively Villanova will have to guard the 3-point line while being aware of Providence’s cutting. Diallo is extremely dangerous and can take over a game, but Watson, Jackson, and White are no slouches either. Nova has had some success switching to zone looks at times this season, but that might not be a viable way hide the defensive liabilities against Providence.
Offensively, Villanova has been better at generating open looks of late, and it’s just a matter of knocking them down consistently. I’d like to see them take advantage of opportunities to run.
The Dunkin Donuts Center can be an incredibly difficult place to play, and the Wildcats will have their work cut out for them on Saturday. It will be interesting to see how things play out.
