Tuesday night’s matchup with No. 9 Providence lost just a bit of its luster when the Friars beat Creighton on Saturday night, clinching the Big East regular season title in the process. While Tuesday’s game will no longer have an impact on the Big East title race, Villanova could fall from second to third in the conference if it loses to both Providence and Butler and if UConn beats Creighton and DePaul to close the regular season. Perhaps more importantly, it’s an opportunity for another top 10 win for the ‘Cats and the game will likely have seeding implications when it comes time for the NCAA Tournament, so there’s plenty to play for despite the regular season title being out of reach.
“Another Big East battle,” Jay Wright said. “We had a great game against Providence last time and we congratulate them for being league champions.”
The Friars have won three in a row since losing to Villanova on February 15, entering Tuesday with a 24-3 overall record. We noted the disparity between the Friars’ on-court results and their perception among the metrics ahead of the last meeting, and the two have moved slightly closer to each other since then. But the metrics still don’t view the Friars as the elite team their record would indicate. In KenPom, Providence has climbed from 47th to 39th while the Friars have moved from 53rd to 42nd in Haslametrics. Again, the other 3-loss teams in the country, Gonzaga and Arizona, are ranked first and fourth respectively by KenPom and first and third in Haslametrics.
Two areas where the Friars have been particularly good have been getting to the free throw line and on the offensive glass. Both areas were a factor in the first meeting between the teams.
Providence earned 26 trips to the line in that matchup, hitting 19. The Friars also earned a 37-32 advantage on the glass, including a 12-7 edge on the offensive glass that led to a 16-14 edge in second-chance points.
Nate Watson was tough for the ‘Cats to handle the last time the teams met. He finished with 20 points, hitting 6-9 from the floor and earning 12 trips to the free throw line, connecting on eight. He helped the Friars to a 50-32 advantage in points in the paint.
“We’ve gotta do a better job on Watson, we’ve gotta do a better job keeping Bynum out of the paint and we worked hard on that the last couple days.” Wright said. “And also rebounding, they had 12 offensive rebounds.”
“I think the first time they really got it to Watson inside,” Justin Moore said. “We gotta pay attention to him. He’s a great player so we’ve gotta find ways to limit him and not let him get as many touches and points in the paint. Also, their guards did a great job of scoring and facilitating for others, so I think they’re really well-balanced and we just gotta come in and play hard.”
Villanova was carried by the 3-ball in the win over Providence, hitting 11-23 from deep and outscoring the Friars by 18 from beyond the arc. Much of that was courtesy of Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore, who combined to hit 9-18 from deep.
Wright credited a strong first half performance that saw the ‘Cats take a seven-point lead into the break with helping the ‘Cats hang on for the big road win. Part of that was getting Justin Minaya and Al Durham in foul trouble, with Wright citing aggressiveness as the impetus for those foul issues and the good first half overall.
“I think Minaya and Durham got into foul trouble early which was good for us and enabled us to go into halftime with a lead,” Wright said. “I thought being aggressive in the first half and getting those guys in foul trouble was good.”
Despite an underwhelming stat line, Minaya was one of only two Friars to post a positive +/- against Villanova. The other was Ed Croswell, who caused the ‘Cats some trouble inside, going for eight points and seven rebounds (three offensive) in just under 15 minutes of action.
Providence shot well under its season average from 3 in the first meeting while Villanova shot well above the percentage Providence has allowed opponents to shoot. Wright noted that it might be difficult to replicate the offensive performance from the first meeting. “It’s probably gonna be difficult to duplicate what we did offensively but we’ve gotta be better defensively,” Wright said.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on points in the paint. As we mentioned, Providence had a big advantage there last game and Wright noted the importance of not only limiting Watson but keeping the Providence guards from driving into the paint. It’s been an area of focus for the ‘Cats in the leadup to this game so we’ll see if those efforts pay off.
We noted ahead of the last game that the 3-point line could be a factor as the teams had similar numbers from beyond the arc and if one team opened an advantage it could go a long way towards deciding the outcome. That proved to be true, but the numbers suggest that the ‘Cats won’t have such a large advantage from deep again. It will be something to watch on Tuesday night.
As Wright noted, the defensive glass will be key for the ‘Cats as well.
It will be another tough test and another great opportunity for the ‘Cats. A win would go a long way towards securing a top three seed in the NCAA Tournament. It will be interesting to see how the ‘Cats respond coming off a tough loss to UConn as well.
The game is scheduled for a 6:30 tip on FS1.
