The Wildcats will get an early-season test on Wednesday night when they take on No. 16 Ohio State in Columbus. It should be a great challenge for the ‘Cats and will provide an opportunity to earn an impressive early win for the resume.
The Buckeyes are 2-0 on the season with wins over Cincinnati and UMass Lowell. They are currently ranked 12th in KenPom and at the moment represent the second-most difficult game on the schedule in that metric, after Kansas.
Ohio State is averaging 70 points per game while allowing 56. The Buckeyes are shooting 45.3 percent from the field and 35.9 percent from deep. On the young season they are averaging 42.5 rebounds, 14 assists, three blocks, and two steals.
OSU enters the season in a very similar situation to Villanova in terms of experience. The Buckeyes have just one scholarship senior, Andre Wesson, and he will miss Wednesday’s game with an eye injury, so there will be no scholarship seniors on the court. Even with Wesson’s absence, Ohio State has 11 players who are playing over 12 minutes per game so far this season, as Chris Holtmann hasn’t been afraid to go to his bench.
Seven Buckeyes are currently averaging at least 7.5 points per game. 6-8 junior Kyle Young leads the way with 12 points and 8.5 rebounds. 6-2 freshman D.J. Carton has been solid in his young career, chipping in 11 points, four rebounds, and three assists. 6-9 junior Kaleb Wesson is averaging a double-double through two games with 10.5 points and 12 rebounds while adding 3.5 assists. 6-9 freshman Alonzo Gaffney rounds out the double-figure scorers with 10 points and eight rebounds per game. Other key contributors include 6-3 sophomore Luther Muhammad (8.5 points, 2.5 assists, two rebounds), 6-1 junior C.J. Walker (7.5 points, 2.5 assists, two rebounds), and 6-3 sophomore Duane Washington (7.5 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists).
Looking at Ohio State’s KenPom numbers, we see a team that has been decent offensively (42nd) and elite defensively (7th).
Starting with the defensive side of the ball, a few things really jump out. Ohio State has done an excellent job defending the perimeter, ranking 15th in opponent’s three-point percentage and 14th in opponent’s effective field goal percentage. In addition, despite not generating a ton of steals (343rd in steal percentage) the Buckeyes have managed to force a lot of turnovers thanks to an elite non-steal turnover percentage that ranks 12th in the nation. Both Cincy and UML had more turnovers than assists against the Buckeyes.
Offensively, Ohio State has been slightly above average shooting the ball and has been good on the offensive glass. They’ve done a good job getting to the line but have connected on just 58.8 percent from the charity stripe. Carton, Kaleb Wesson, Muhammad, and Washington have been their best three-point threats early in the season.
Digging deeper into the numbers courtesy of Synergy Sports, we find Ohio State has been most dangerous in transition. The Buckeyes also have had success in spot-up situations and off cuts. They’ve struggled in the pick and roll and in the post. They’ve done a good job attacking the basket and can convert when they get to the hoop.
Overall, Carton and Young have been their most efficient players offensively. Wesson, Muhammad, and Washington have also graded out well in the early season in terms of efficiency.
Carton and Muhammad like to work in transition. Wesson and Young are your most-likely candidates for post-ups. Ohio State has utilized cuts well so far this season with Young, Gaffney, and E.J. Liddell all seeing significant roles in those sets.
Walker and Carton are the primary pick and roll ballhandlers, with Wesson, Young, and Liddell serving as the screeners. Muhammad, Walker, and Washington can work in isolation with the latter two having particular success. Young has been a force on the offensive glass.
Off ball movement has been the most difficult thing for Ohio State to defend against so far this season. They’ve done an excellent job defending the pick and roll and the perimeter.
Carton, Walker, and Washington have been the best individual defenders. Wesson and Gaffney have been the poorest.
Three-point shooting, rebounding, and turnovers will be three areas we’ll be monitoring Wednesday night.
Obviously, Villanova likes to shoot the three but defending it has been a strength for Ohio State.
The rebounding battle should be interesting. Villanova looked incredibly strong in its season-opening win over Army, but it will be interesting to see how that holds up against high-level talent on a team that has also done well cleaning the glass. The winner on the battle on the boards will likely have a big advantage in this one, and ‘Nova will need to keep the Buckeyes off the offensive glass.
It’s fascinating that Ohio State generates so many turnovers without getting steals, and it will be imperative for Villanova to take care of the ball.
Defending the point of attack and limiting transition opportunities will be key for Villanova defensively, while it will be interesting to see how the ‘Cats decide to attack Ohio State offensively.
The game presents an intriguing matchup and a lot of strength vs. strength battles. It will be a great measuring stick for the young ‘Cats and would be a huge win come March if they can pull it out. The game is at 7 PM on FS1.