Game Preview: Middle Tennessee State

Villanova will look to build on last Saturday’s win over Ohio and try to start its journey to another early-season tournament title on Thursday when it takes on Middle Tennessee State to open the Myrtle Beach Invitational. Note that this game has an unusual start time of 11:30 AM and is scheduled to air on ESPN2. Let’s get familiar with the Blue Raiders ahead of the game.

MTSU enters the game at 3-1 with wins over Maryville (TN) (Division II), Lipscomb, and Mars Hill (Division II). The Blue Raiders are coming off a 21-point defeat at the hands of Coastal Carolina. To reiterate, they are 1-1 against Division I competition, with a three-point win and a 21-point loss.

As such, we’ll need to take their numbers with a grain of salt. For example, MTSU is averaging 90 points per game, good for 11th in the country. But if you remove the two wins over DII competition, that number drops to 83 PPG. Likewise, they surrender 76.5 points per game, but against the two DI opponents, the number rises to 81.5. Clearly, the Blue Raiders’ early-season numbers are heavily skewed by their competition.

MTSU is ranked 185th in KenPom, 185th offensively and 181st defensively. Digging deeper into the KenPom numbers, it’s easy to see why.

The Blue Raiders rank 305th in turnover percentage, committing a turnover on nearly 1-in-4 possessions (24.1 percent). They also struggle in creating turnovers, ranking 272nd.

Offensively, the lone bright spot for the Blue Raiders has been three-point shooting, where they have connected on 39.4 percent of attempts. But they rank 340th in two-point percentage and get in their own way at times, ranking 317th in non-steal turnover percentage. This stat tells the offensive story for MTSU well: the Blue Raiders rank 2nd in the country in percentage of points generated from three-pointers, but just 352nd in that same metric for two-pointers.

MTSU has struggled on the boards, having trouble grabbing offensive rebounds and failing to keep opponents off the offensive glass at the other end.

The Blue Raiders have been generous spreading around the minutes, with nine players averaging at least 12.5 per night and six players averaging over 20 minutes.

The backcourt is the engine for MTSU. Senior Antonio Green leads the way for the Blue Raiders with 23.5 points per game. He adds four rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.3 steals while connecting on 50 percent of his three-point attempts. Junior backcourt mate C.J. Jones chips in 20 points, 3.3 rebounds, two steals, and one rebound. He has connected on 52 percent of his three-point attempts this season. That duo represents the main scoring punch, the main turnover generation, as well as the highest-volume and most accurate three-point shooting.

Here are some junior year highlights of Green to give you a bit of an idea of what he can do.

Another guard, Jayce Johnson, is the team’s third-leading scorer at 11 points per game. He is also tied for the team’s second-leading rebounder with 6.8 per game, while adding 2.8 assists and a steal.

Jo’Vontae Millner rounds out the double-figure scorers with 10 points per game and leads the team in rebounding with 7.5 per game. Millner hasn’t played in either of the last two MTSU games, but there doesn’t appear to be any official reports on an injury or disciplinary action, so for now we’ll just note that his status is up in the air.

Forward Tyler Millin adds 8.8 points and 3.3 rebounds, while guard Eli Lawrence chips in 8.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists and forward Tyson Jackson contributes 8.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and one assist.

Using Synergy Sports to dig deeper into the numbers, one thing immediately jumps out: The Blue Raiders like to go fast. Transition points are the top-ranked source of offense for MTSU and they net 1.155 points per possession in those situations.

As expected courtesy of the quality three-point shooting from Green and Jones, the spot-up numbers are good for MTSU and the Blue Raiders have had some success running the pick and roll as well, particularly when the ball handler makes a play.

Green and Jones average 1.19 and 1.25 PPP respectively. Millin has been efficient as well with 1.061 PPP. Green and Jones are accounting for over 38 percent of MTSU’s offense.

Jones and Lawrence have been the most lethal Blue Raiders in transition, but Green and Johnson get involved there as well. Green has also been the primary pick and roll ballhandler.

Defensively, MTSU has defending shooters reasonably well, but struggle guarding the pick and roll. It has also been susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds.

Green and Johnson have rated “average” defensively. Jones rates “very good” while Lawrence and Millin appear to be the individual defenders to attack, rating “below average.”

There are some pretty clear keys here for Villanova.

First and foremost, limiting Green and Jones, particularly from beyond the arc. Both players have been lethal from deep, but there is a steep drop off in three-point accuracy, and overall production, after that duo. If Villanova can make them uncomfortable on the perimeter, it’s likely the Blue Raiders won’t have enough firepower from the rest of the roster to keep up.

Exploiting clear advantages will be key as well, particularly on the glass and in the turnover battle. ‘Nova was much better taking care of the ball against Ohio, and MTSU has been poor both taking care of the ball themselves and forcing miscues from the opponent. The ‘Cats should be able to generate extra possessions here, and it will be disappointing if they don’t win the turnover battle.

The ‘Cats should have another advantage on the glass. They should be able to do some damage on the offensive glass and win the battle of the boards overall. Should they struggle on the defensive glass, the three-point shooting of Green and Jones could become even more of a factor, and that’s something you want to avoid. An advantage on the offensive glass would also help Villanova in our next key.

Finally, we’d like to see Villanova control tempo. A fast-paced game featuring a lot of shots plays into MTSU’s hands, allowing it to play to its strengths of transition offense and three-point shooting. The good news is that the advantages Villanova shout have on the glass and regarding turnovers should go a long way to helping it control the tempo. The ‘Cats will want to make the Blue Raiders play in the half-court, and from there force them to play inside the arc or at the very least attempt strongly contested shots from deep.

Villanova should be able to handily take care of business on Thursday, but an experienced, talented backcourt that likes to play fast and that can bury it from deep can create havoc, especially at the collegiate level. Unusual, early start times can also contribute to weird things happening. The path to victory is pretty clear, and as long as the ‘Cats can execute they should be able to take care of business.