Villanova will take on 11-seed Michigan Thursday night with a trip to the Elite 8 on the line.
The Wolverines reached the Sweet 16 after defeating 6-seed Colorado State, 75-63, and 3-seed Tennessee 76-68.
It was an up and down season for Michigan. The Wolverines were never more than four games over .500, and only achieved that mark with a win over Ohio State in the last game of the regular season. They never won more than three games in a row, and only achieved that feat once, from Jan. 18-26 with wins over Maryland, Indiana and Northwestern. Michigan rotated wins and losses over the final eight games of the regular season and then lost to Indiana to open the Big Ten Tournament.
However, the Wolverines were the opposite of Villanova’s Big East foe Providence. While the Friars kept posting wins, the metrics never saw them as an elite team. Conversely, despite the results for the Wolverines, the metrics viewed them as a much stronger team than a 17-13 regular season would indicate.
KenPom currently ranks Michigan 27th overall (19th offensively, 77th defensively) while Haslametrics has the Wolverines 22nd overall (15th offensively, 73rd defensively).
Michigan averages 73.2 points per game while giving up 65.5. It shoots 46.8% from the field, 34% from 3 and 74.6% from the free throw line. The Wolverines grab 35.5 rebounds and commit 11.5 turnovers.
“They’re an experienced group,” Collin Gillespie said. “They have some young guys, but they have experience in Hunter and Eli and Jones. They’re a battle-tested group, they’ve been in a lot of tight games, and they play in one of the toughest conferences in the country, so they’ve dealt with that day in and day out playing games in the Big Ten. They’re well-coached, they’re depth is something that they use well as well.”
The metrics view Michigan and Villanova’s previous opponent, Ohio State, pretty similarly. That, combined with the fact that both hail from the Big Ten, might lead one to assume there are some similarities between the teams. Jay Wright identified one, but thinks overall Michigan presents a completely different set of challenges.
“Quick guards, they both have quick guards,” Wright said. However, he also noted some differences. “Hunter Dickinson’s so unique and (Moussa) Diabate is too, those two are so different than Ohio State’s two forwards that that makes it a really unique matchup.”
Another difference is balance. While Ohio State relied heavily on E.J. Liddell and Malaki Branham for offense, the Wolverines boast four players averaging double figures and another who is just shy of that mark at 9.1 PPG (Diabate).
Dickinson leads the way with 18.7 points, 8.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists while hitting 57.1% of his shots.
Next up for the Wolverines is an experienced backcourt duo in Eli Brooks and DeVante’ Jones. Brooks contributes 12.8 points, 3.7 rebounds and three assists while hitting 38.7% of his 3-point attempts. Jones adds 10.4 points, 4.6 assists and 4.5 rebounds.
“I think Brooks, Dickinson, I count him as experienced cause it seems like he’s played so many games, he’s only a sophomore,” Wright said. “But I think Brooks is really important for them, Jones is really important for them. At this time of year experience in the backcourt is huge and those guys have stepped up big time.”
Caleb Houstan rounds out the double figure scorers with 10.2 points per game, adding four rebounds and hitting 36% from deep.
Key bench players include Terrance Williams II (4.7 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 38.8% 3PT%), Brandon Johns Jr. (3.3 PPG, 2.0 RPG), Kobe Bufkin (3.0 PPG, 1.1 RPG) and Frankie Collins (2.9 PPG, 1.7 RPG, 1.4 APG). Collins stepped up big-time in the Wolverines’ tournament-opening win over Colorado State in the absence of Jones, scoring 14 points and grabbing six rebounds.
Michigan presents a unique challenge between the experienced backcourt of Brooks and Jones and a big front line in Dickinson (7-1) and Diabate (6-11).
How Villanova defends Dickinson, in particular, will be interesting. Obviously, the Wildcats don’t have the pure size to simply matchup with him, so it will have to be a team effort on the defensive end. The ‘Cats will also have to put forth a strong team effort on the glass. 'Nova could also choose to focus on trying to limit the players around Dickinson, attempting to prevent them from giving enough help to the big man for Michigan to win the game.
Offensively, the ‘Cats could look to attack Dickinson with mismatches, forcing him to defend on the perimeter. Michigan’s coverage on ball screens will be interesting as well. The Wolverines like to deploy a drop coverage, which could give Villanova’s shooters an opportunity for open looks from the perimeter.
Michigan is not a typical 11-seed. While the Wolverines struggled to put things together consistently throughout the season, they have the talent of a 2 or 3-seed. They opened the season as a top 10 team, and while they were unable to live up to that billing during the season, there is a reason they garnered that ranking heading into the season. Remember, Michigan is a team that went to the Elite 8 last season and narrowly missed reaching the Final Four, falling by two-points to UCLA. Brooks, Dickinson and Johns Jr. were all contributors to that run, and Williams II was on board as well. Villanova is aware of all of this.
“I don’t look at them like that,” Gillespie said. “We think that they’re better than an 11-seed. They played in one of the toughest conferences in the country. They’re playing really good teams night in and night out. So, I don’t look at them as a bubble team. We know that they’re really well-coached and they have a lot of depth and they’re a great basketball team.”
“Because they’re Michigan you can’t think about that (the seeding) and on top of that they’re extremely dangerous,” Jermaine Samuels added. “They have Dickinson down there and they have a bunch of guards that fill it up so they’re a dangerous team.”
Of course, there’s one final wrinkle in this matchup: Michigan assistant Phil Martelli. While it will be Juwan Howard making the final decisions for the Wolverines, Martelli will be plenty involved in the preparation and he is incredibly familiar with Villanova from his time at St. Joe’s.
It’s certainly not your typical 2-seed vs. 11-seed matchup and it should be fascinating to watch it play out. The winner is likely to have earned their spot in the Elite 8.
The game is scheduled for a 7:29 p.m. tip on TBS.
