Villanova will try to start building its next winning streak Wednesday night when it hosts Marquette.
The Golden Eagles come in at 9-10 overall and 5-8 in the Big East, having lost four of their last five games.
KenPom ranks Marquette 77th overall, 64th offensively and 105th defensively. Haslametrics ranks Marquette 83rd overall, 81st offensively and 117th defensively.
In the first meeting between these teams, back in December, Villanova rolled to an 85-68 win. “I thought defensively we were really aggressive,” Jay Wright said of that December matchup. “Our defensive intensity was at a different level when we played Marquette last time.” Perhaps the stat from that game that best illustrates Wright’s point is the 17 turnovers Villanova forced. As you might remember, that is an area ‘Nova has struggled in this season, especially early in the year. The Wildcats turned those 17 Marquette turnovers into an 18-3 advantage in points off turnovers.
D.J. Carton leads the way for the Golden Eagles with 12.7 points, 3.6 assists, 3.5 rebounds and 1.2 steals. However, he has also committed 2.7 turnovers and has hit 31.4% from 3 while being Marquette’s leading shot-taker from beyond the arc.
Dawson Garcia adds 12.5 points and 6.7 rebounds and has put up an impressive 39.2% mark from 3 on 51 attempts. Koby McEwen chips in 12.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.8 assists with a .357 3-point percentage. Jamal Cain rounds out the double-figure scorers for Marquette with 10.3 points. He adds 5.8 rebounds and has connected on 42% of his 3s.
Justin Lewis (8.1 pts, six rebounds), Theo John (8.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.8 blocks) and Greg Elliott (5.2 pts) round out the main rotation for the Golden Eagles. Symir Torrence (2.4 ppg) also averages 13.6 minutes per game.
“Carton has become a really dominant player in our league, McEwen’s always been tough,” Wright said about some of Marquette’s weapons. “I think Garcia’s gotten a lot better, Theo John’s always given us trouble, so we expect a tough Big East game.”
Last time these teams met it was Cain who led the way for Marquette with 15 points, hitting 3-5 from deep. Carton and John both reached double-figures with 10 while Garcia added nine.
Looking at the advanced metrics, we see Marquette has had a very good 2-point defense, especially around the basket. KenPom ranks Marquette 15th in opponent’s 2-point percentage. Haslametrics agrees, ranking the Golden Eagles 15th in opponent’s field goal percentage, 42nd in opponent’s mid-range field goal percentage, and 2nd in near-proximity defense.
Marquette has allowed opponents to grab some offensive rebounds but has done a good job preventing them from converting those extra chances into buckets.
Offensively, Marquette is ranked 53rd in field goal percentage by Haslametrics and 42nd in mid-range field goal percentage, although the Golden Eagles take a slightly below average number of mid-range shots.
With a 9-10 record, there are clearly some things that Marquette hasn’t done well. The first thing that jumps out is turnovers. Marquette has had trouble taking care of the ball (20.7% turnover percentage, ranked 250th) and forcing miscues from the opponent (15.4% opponent turnover percentage, ranks 329th). This played out in the first meeting between the teams, when Marquette committed 17 turnovers to Villanova’s four. As a result, the Golden Eagles rank 337th in both field goal rate (they don’t get a lot of shots up) and opponent field goal rate (opponents do get a lot of shots up). Again, we saw this in the first meeting between the teams, as ‘Nova took 60 shots to Marquette’s 51. This has also limited Marquette’s ability to generate quick points and has left them susceptible to surrendering quick points. However, that is one area where the trend didn’t play out in the first game between the teams, as Marquette had a 20-15 advantage in fast break points.
In addition to the turnover problems and the resulting issues, Marquette has been poor defending the 3-point line. KenPom ranks the Golden Eagles 257th in 3-point defense while Haslametrics has them at 218th. In the December meeting between the teams, Marquette shot the ball well from 3 (50%) and did an okay job defending the arc, holding ‘Nova to 39.4%. The issue for Marquette in that game was volume, as ‘Nova hoisted 33 3-point attempts to Marquette’s 18, so despite the percentages Villanova earned a 12-point advantage from deep.
All of this gives us some pretty clear things to keep an eye on Wednesday night.
First, it will be the turnovers. After establishing itself as one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the ball, Villanova has been a little shaky in that department the last two games. The Wildcats remain middle-of-the-pack in terms of forcing turnovers. However, we mentioned Marquette’s struggles in this area and Villanova got the better end of this stat in a big way the first time these teams met. We’ll be watching how the turnovers shake out.
Next will be the 3-point line. Marquette is above average shooting the 3, but poor defending it. While Villanova shoots the ball well from deep, it has had its own issues defending the arc and actually ranks worse than Marquette in that metric. The Golden Eagles got the better of the shooting percentage last time, but it was Villanova who had the advantage in points from deep.
Another important line will be the free throw line. Marquette gets to the line at a good clip (ranked 15th by Haslametrics) but has struggled to convert those opportunities, hitting just 71.9%. In addition, the Golden Eagles have had struggles against teams that get to the line themselves. Villanova has been decent at getting to the line but not great. In the first meeting between the teams each shot 16 free throws, but ‘Nova connected on 14 while Marquette hit just seven. Trips to the line and conversions from the charity stripe could help determine the winner Wednesday night.
Finally, we’ll be watching the number of field goal attempts, particularly for Marquette. The Golden Eagles, not surprisingly, have performed better when playing teams that allow more field goal attempts. With Marquette struggling both to get shots up and to prevent the opponent from doing so, we’ll be watching to see if Villanova can exploit that. As we noted earlier, ‘Nova was +9 in field goal attempts in the first game between these teams.
Actually, one more thing. We’ve mentioned Marquette’s excellent 2-point defense, but in the first matchup of these teams Villanova shot 16-27 from 2-point range. While the turnovers and 3-point shooting jump out, that 2-point shooting against that defense quietly played a big role in the 17-point margin of victory for Villanova. It will be interesting to see if Villanova can replicate that performance on Wednesday night.
The game is scheduled for a 9 p.m. tipoff on FS1.