Published Jan 3, 2020
Game Preview: Marquette
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
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@JoshNaso

It’s very possible that the regular-season Big East title will be determined by a team’s ability to get road wins in the conference, and Villanova will get its first shot at one on Saturday when it heads to Marquette to take on the Golden Eagles.

Marquette comes into the game at 10-3, with an 0-1 record in the Big East after falling to Creighton in its conference opener.

The teams enter Saturday’s clash with similar traditional numbers: Marquette averages 78.5 points to Villanova’s 77.3 and gives up 67.7 to Villanova’s 67.5. The ‘Cats shoot 46.6 percent from the field while the Golden Eagles connect on 44.2 percent. Marquette grabs 40.3 rebounds to Villanova’s 37.2 and averages 4.7 blocks to Villanova’s 3.5. The ‘Cats have the edge in assists at 16.3 to 14.9 and in steals at 6.3 to 5.3.

The Golden Eagles hold a nice win over Purdue and decent wins over USC and Davidson. Their three losses have come against teams in the top 39 in KenPom: Wisconsin (29), Maryland (9), and Creighton (39). Villanova is currently No. 22 in that metric.

KenPom currently ranks Marquette No. 33, 31st in offense and 46th in defense.

Offensively, the Golden Eagles have been elite from beyond the arc, ranking third in the nation with a 41.9 percent three-point percentage. However, they have struggled inside the arc, ranking just 278th. They’ve been susceptible to turnovers and have been average on the offensive glass but have done well getting to the free-throw line. 38.8 percent of their points have come via the long-ball (No. 33 nationally) and 21.8 percent from the charity stripe (No. 49), while just 39.4 percent have come from inside the arc (No. 350).

Defensively, Marquette has been particularly good defending inside the arc, where their 42.5 percent opponents field goal percentage ranks 22nd nationally. The Golden Eagles rank 78th in the country in opponents three-point percentage at 30.5 percent. They don’t generate a ton of turnovers, ranking 277th in turnover percentage and have been susceptible to sending opponents to the line.

Per Synergy Sports, Marquette ranks in the 80th percentile offensively with 0.936 points per possession.

The Golden Eagles have been excellent in spot-up situations as well as in transition. They’ve also been excellent utilizing the roll man in the pick and roll, although that has made up a very small amount of their offense. They’ve been average using the pick and roll ballhandler and in the post, and those two play types combine with spot-ups and transition to make up the bulk of their offense. They’ve also struggled in isolation and off cuts, but have been good using handoffs and screens.

Obviously, it all starts with Markus Howard. He leads the team with 25.6 points per game and is lethal as a shooter. Every fan of the Big East knows this. Expect a heavy dose of pick and rolls with Howard ballhandling as well as plenty of screens attempting to free him up. Howard is connecting on a ridiculous 47.1 percent of his threes.

Sacar Anim is having a nice season for the Golden Eagles as well. He represents the team’s only other double-figure scorer at 12.9 points per game and he is connecting on 42.9 percent from deep. He’s struggled as the pick and roll ballhandler.

Brendon Baily (7.8 PPG), Jamal Cain (6.2), Greg Elliott (5.8), and Theo John (5.5) all carry decent offensive ratings from Synergy. Baily has connected on 40.7 percent from deep and has also been Marquette’s most effective roll man in the P/R. Cain shoots a respectable 38.5 percent from deep, while Elliott is connecting on 51.9 percent, albeit in a smaller sample size for each player.

Koby McEwen is the lone main rotation piece that draws a below average offensive rating from Synergy, but he adds 9.3 points per game.

Defensively, Marquette ranks in the 77th percentile with 0.803 PPP.

The Golden Eagles have been average defending spot-ups, cuts, and isolations and have struggled defending the post. They’ve done well against the pick and roll, as well as against screens, handoffs, and in transition.

Individually, Baily, John, and Elliott are the defenders to target.

Cain, Howard, Baily and John have had trouble defending shooters. McEwen and Howard have had issues with the pick and roll ballhandler. Elliott has struggled with screens while Baily has been attackable in isolation.

Offensively, Villanova should be able to find some success. There are weaknesses to exploit in the Marquette defense and Villanova has played well offensively for much of the season despite some inconsistent shooting. This also looks like a game where Villanova could work on one of the New Year’s resolutions we laid out earlier this week and get to the line.

Defensively, it looks simple enough: defend the three-point line. However, against a team like Marquette, that is easier said than done. The Golden Eagles have several options that can hurt you from deep, and we all know Howard is explosive. Villanova should sell out to cover the arc and force the Golden Eagles to win the game with two-pointers.

Rebounding and turnovers will be important, as extra possessions could make the difference in this game.

Marquette has been slightly better on the boards overall than Villanova, but the ‘Cats just handled their business on the glass against a good rebounding team in Xavier. Marquette has been slightly above average both getting offensive boards and keeping opponents off the offensive glass, but they have been very good converting their extra opportunities and have done a good job of limiting points off opponent's second chances.

On paper, ‘Nova should have an opportunity in the turnover department. Marquette has had some turnover issues, ranking 208th in turnover percentage. The Golden Eagles’ three leading scorers (Howard, Anim, McEwen) all average over two per game, with Howard committing 3.5 per game. Winning the turnover battle could help tilt things in Villanova’s favor.

In addition to rebounding and turnovers, it’s hard to not see this game coming down to the three-point line and the free-throw line, and those four areas are what we’ll be keeping an eye on Saturday.

The game presents quite a test for ‘Nova. Marquette is a tough place to play and the Golden Eagles will likely come out with their best shot as falling into an early hole in the Big East could prove too much to overcome. They will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 conference start and will want to protect their home court.

For Villanova, the opportunity is there to get an incredibly important road conference win and to put some early distance between itself and Marquette.

It’s worth noting that the computers slightly favor Marquette, with ESPN’s matchup predictor giving the Golden Eagles a 60.5 percent chance to win and KenPom predicting a two-point Marquette win.

It will be a great test for the young ‘Cats, and it will be interesting to see how they respond.