Published Nov 30, 2019
Game Preview: La Salle
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
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@JoshNaso

Villanova will get back on the court Sunday after a week off when it kicks off Big 5 play by hosting La Salle, who is led by old friend Ashley Howard.

The Explorers come in at 4-2, with both losses interestingly coming in the Big 5. La Salle fell to Penn 75-59 and to Temple 70-65.

‘Nova holds an advantage in virtually every traditional stat except steals (6.5-4.8). La Salle averages 70.3 points per game while surrendering 69.8. The Explorers shoot 43.5 percent from the field and 38.6 percent from three. They grab 35.7 rebounds and dish 12.7 assists while committing 16.2 turnovers.

Despite shooting the ball reasonably well from three, offense has been a struggle for the Explorers. Guard Isaiah Deas is the lone double-figure scorer at an even 10 points per game. He’s connected on 38.9 percent of this three-point attempts.

From there it’s been a committee effort from La Salle with 10 explorers playing at least 13 minutes per game and seven averaging at least 6.7 points.

Forward Ed Croswell adds 9.7 points and leads the team with 7.3 rebounds. Guard Saul Phiri chips in 8.8 points and 4.2 rebounds while hitting 46.4 percent from three. Guard Scott Spencer contributes 8.5 points and four rebounds on 44 percent from deep. Guard David Beatty chips in 8.5 points and 3.8 rebounds while guard Sherif Kenney adds 8.3 points. Forward Brandon Stone adds 6.7 points and has hit 40 percent of his three-point attempts.

The KenPom numbers back up the traditional ones offensively for La Salle. The Explorers check in at 243rd in offensive efficiency. Their three-point percentage is good, ranking 35th, but they rank just 225th in two-point percentage. They rank 270th in turnover percentage, turning it over 21.8 percent of the time. They have struggled on the offensive glass and have had an outsized number of their shots blocked. La Salle has also struggled at the charity stripe.

Defensively, La Salle has been slightly above average, landing at 121st. The Explorers don’t turn opponents over a ton but have done an excellent job defending the perimeter.

Digging deeper into the numbers via Synergy, we find La Salle scoring 0.864 points per possession, ranking in just the 38th percentile.

The Explorers have been reasonably efficient shooting the ball, running the pick and roll, and in the post. They’ve struggled off screens and handoffs and been average in isolation. These numbers point to turnovers as really disrupting the offense for La Salle, as on their own you’d expect La Salle to be rated much better offensively.

Deas, Croswell, Phiri, and Stone have been the most efficient offensive players for La Salle, while Kenney has been a player the opposition would like to force to key the offense.

As evidenced by their three-point percentages, Deas, Phiri, and Spencer have been the best shooters and need to be watched on the perimeter.

Croswell has done a fair amount of work in the post and has been reasonably effective.

Defensively, La Salle has given up 0.82 PPP, ranking in the 61st percentile.

La Salle has defended spot-ups and isolations well and done a good job limiting opponents in transition. The Explorers have struggled to defend the post, as well as the pick and roll and cuts.

Spencer, Deas, and Ayinde Hikim have been the best individual defenders. Kenney, Phiri, and Croswell are the players to attack individually.

Kenney and Phiri have struggled the most in spot-up situations and it will be interesting to see if ‘Nova tries to exploit that.

We’ll be watching the turnover battle on Sunday. La Salle hasn’t generated a ton of turnovers and has struggled taking care of the ball offensively, so there should be an opportunity for ‘Nova to open an advantage there.

We’ll also be watching Villanova’s defense on Deas, Phiri, and Spencer. They have the kind of three-point ability that can flip a game, so it will be key for Villanova to challenge them on the perimeter and keep them from getting hot.

The computers strongly favor Villanova in this game, and on paper, it’s easy to see why. However, ‘Nova will need to execute if it wants to avoid the upset. The fact that Howard is familiar with Villanova plays a role as well and he will likely have a good plan for his Explorers.

The young Wildcats responded well after their first loss of the season against Ohio State and it will be interesting to see how they respond after the most recent loss to Baylor against a perhaps overmatched but still dangerous opponent. The Big 5 factor is at play as well. While ‘Nova has dominated its Philadelphia neighbors for the past six years with just a single hiccup last year, it’s never surprising to see these games turn into a dog fight regardless of how things look on paper. If the ‘Cats can execute, they should be able to secure the win, and it will be interesting to see how things play out Sunday evening.