Published Apr 1, 2022
Game preview: Kansas
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
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@JoshNaso

On Saturday, Villanova will take on Kansas for a spot in the national championship game.

The Jayhawks enter with a 32-6 record. All six of those losses came to top 45 KenPom teams and three of the six came against top 10 KenPom teams.

Speaking of KenPom, that metrics ranks the Jayhawks 4th overall (7th offensively, 18th defensively). Haslametrics, meanwhile, has Kansas 2nd overall (6th offensively, 10th defensively). The Jayhawks average 78.3 points per game while limiting opponents to 59.8.

Offensively, the Jayhawks can cause opponents problems both inside and from beyond the arc. They shoot 53.8% on 2-point attempts and, per Haslametrics, rank 17th in near-proximity percentage. The Jayhawks will make a concerted effort to get looks near the rim as well, ranking 15th in near-proximity attempts. Meanwhile, they shoot 35.6% from 3. They don’t launch from 3 at a super high rate, but they can knock it down from out there when they decide to let it fly.

We see similar balance on the defensive end, with Kansas holding opponents to 47% on 2-point attempts and 29.6% on shots from beyond the arc.

Kansas can cause problems for opponents on the offensive glass, pulling down 33.1% of their offensive rebound opportunities. Kansas also does a great job of converting those second chances, ranking 15th in second-chance conversion percentage, per Haslametrics. However, opponents have grabbed 27.7% of their offensive rebound chances. Overall, the Jayhawks pull down 38 rebounds per game.

The dynamic backcourt of Ochai Agbaji and Christian Braun lead the way for Kansas, averaging 18.9 and 14.3 points respectively. Agbaji adds 5.2 points and 1.6 assists while hitting 39.8% from 3. Braun adds 6.5 rebounds and 2.7 assists while hitting 39.2% from deep.

The frontcourt duo of Jalen Wilson and David McCormack round out the double figure scorers for the Jayhawks. Wilson averages 11 points, 7.4 rebounds and 1.7 assists while McCormack chips in 10.1 points and 6.8 rebounds.

Remy Martin provides a spark for Kansas. He averages 8.6 points, 3.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists while hitting 35.8% from 3. He’s been huge for the Jayhawks during the tournament, averaging 16.8 points per game while eclipsing the 20-point mark twice.

Dajuan Harris Jr. adds 5.4 points and has done a great job facilitating the offense, dishing out a team-high 4.2 assists. Mitch Lightfoot chips in 4.7 points and 2.8 rebounds.

Haslametrics provides us with some interesting insight that points to some potential keys to the game.

First, Kansas performs better than average when playing teams that play at a fast tempo. Of course, Villanova is on the opposite side of the spectrum in terms of pace, playing at one of the most deliberate tempos in the country. Villanova dictating the pace and forcing Kansas to play a slower game could go a long way towards Villanova winning the game.

Second, Kansas performs worse than average when facing teams that shoot well from beyond the arc. Haslametrics notes that the key number is a 3-point percentage (based on the metrics’ calculation for performance against the average opponent) of 35.26%. Kansas performs worse than average against teams that have a better mark than that. For reference, Haslametrics has Villanova’s number at 35.45%. All of that is to say that the 3-point line could be a key factor Saturday night and will be something we’ll have an eye on as we evaluate how the game is going.

In addition to pace and 3-point shooting, defensive rebounding will be key for the ‘Cats. As we noted, Kansas has strong offensive rebounding numbers, and its offense is just too good to be giving second chances to. Villanova doesn’t have to win the offensive rebounding battle or have an edge in second-chance points, but it can’t allow Kansas to open a wide-margin in those areas. Those will be another two areas we can track during the game to help gain insight to how things might play out.

Defensively, the Wildcats have a lot to think about. And they’ll have to be careful not to overplay any one area of Kansas’ offense. If they put too much effort into stopping the inside game, the Jayhawks have the ability to make them pay from deep. Conversely, if they go all out to limit Kansas from the perimeter, it can get the ball inside and do damage. It will be interesting to see how the ‘Cats approach it. In an ideal situation ‘Nova would be able to force Kansas into a lot of mid-range attempts, the Jayhawks’ least efficient scoring area (although they’re still above average from the mid-range).

One final note of interest: the 70-point threshold. Villanova is 25-2 this season when holding opponents under 70 points. Now, holding Kansas to under 70 points is a tall task. The Jayhawks have scored under 70 just six times all season. However, they are 3-3 in those games. Kansas has scored 76 or fewer points in all six of its losses. Again, it’s not easy to limit the Jayhawks to 70 points, but if the ‘Cats were able to, it would go a long way towards turning things in their favor.

Kansas presents an incredible challenge. Of course, Villanova’s job got a bit harder with the loss of Justin Moore. But there are areas where Villanova can carve out advantages or tilt the game in its favor. It should be a great game between two excellent teams. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

The game is scheduled for a 6:09 tipoff on TBS.