Game Preview: Kansas

The Wildcats have had success against the Jayhawks under Jay Wright. There was the blowout win in the snowstorm in 2005 over No. 2 Kansas, a win that Dana O’Neil recently argued was a key building block for where the ‘Cats are now in a great piece for The Athletic. There was the Battle 4 Atlantis game in 2013, again against a No. 2 Kansas team, that I have repeatedly pointed to as the impetus for the incredible run that followed. And of course there are the two NCAA Tournament wins over the Jayhawks, one in the Elite 8, one in the Final Four, that served as checkpoints on the way to National Championships. Even last year, in a close loss in Allen Fieldhouse, the ‘Cats acquitted themselves well as they tried to find their way. Saturday will add another chapter to the Villanova-Kansas story as the Wildcats try to get their signature win of the non-conference schedule.

It certainly won’t be easy. The numbers paint a picture that makes it clear why the Jayhawks are the number one team in the nation. In fact, in the standard numbers, Kansas holds an advantage across the board: 84.6 to 80.4 in points per game, 63.6 to 69.3 in points against, 52.9 to 48.5 in field goal percentage, 38.6 to 37.3 in rebounds, 17.3 to 16.7 in assists, 4.5 to 3.9 in blocks, and 9.2 to 6.2 in steals.

The KenPom numbers back those traditional metrics. Kansas comes in ranked No. 4 in KenPom (11th offensively, sixth defensively). The lone blemish on the Jayhawks’ record is a two-point loss to then KenPom No. 1 Duke on opening night. The schedule after that hasn’t necessarily been murderer’s row, but the Jayhawks have topped three top 45 KenPom opponents: No. 12 Dayton, No. 38 BYU, and No. 45 Colorado.

Kansas ranks third in both effective field goal percentage and two-point field goal percentage. The Jayhawks check in at 60th in three-point percentage but do much of their damage from inside the arc. Kansas gets 56.6 percent of its points from two-point range compared to just 25.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Two areas where the Jayhawks haven’t excelled offensively are the free-throw line (211th) and turnovers (151st).

Defensively, Kansas ranks 40th in effective field goal percentage, 55th in two-point percentage, 54th in three-point percentage, 19th in block percentage, and 20th in steal percentage. Despite the excellent steal percentage, the Jayhawks haven’t been elite forcing turnovers overall, ranking 110th. Interestingly, opponents are getting 40.3 percent of their points via the three-ball, the 10th most in the country, and just 43.3 percent from two’s. Kansas has sent opponents to the free-throw line at a higher than average clip.

Guard Devon Dotson leads the way for Kansas with 19.6 points per game, adding 4.8 assists, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.2 steals. He’s Kansas’ best free-throw shooter at 85.3 percent but has only connected on 31.8 percent from deep. He’s also averaged 2.7 turnovers per game.

Udoka Azubuike chips in 14.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, and two blocks. Doing most of his work around the rim, he’s shooting a ridiculous 83.1 percent from the floor, but connecting on just 37.8 percent of his free throws.

Guard Ochai Agbaji rounds out the double-figure scorers for the Jayhawks with 11.4 points per game. He adds 5.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.6 steals. He’s also hit 41.2 percent from deep.

Forward David McCormack adds 9.9 points in just 16.9 minutes per game. He also grabs five rebounds per game.

A trio of guards round out the key members of the rotation. Marcus Garrett averages 9.4 points, Isaiah Moss adds 7.8, and Tristan Enaruna 4.2. Garrett has connected on 38.9 percent from deep while Moss hits 42.1 percent from beyond the arc. Silvio De Sousa and Christian Braun are getting 10.1 and 10.5 minutes per game respectively.

The Synergy numbers also reflect a very good basketball team.

Offensively the Jayhawks are scoring 1.014 points per possession, ranking in the 98th percentile.

There’s not a whole lot to break down here, as the Jayhawks rank “very good” or “excellent” in virtually every play type. The only exceptions are the roll man in the pick and roll (below average), handoffs (good)and off screens (average). Not surprisingly, those three play types make up just 7.6 percent of the Kansas offense.

Cuts and post-ups have been Kansas’ most efficient play types at 1.275 PPP and 1.165 PPP respectively. Kansas has also been lethal converting offensive rebounds and very good in transition and in spot-up situations.

Dotson, Azubuike, McCormack, and Moss have been the most efficient individual players for Kansas, all netting over 1.0 points per possession. Agbaji and Garrett aren’t far behind.

Dotson has excelled running the pick and roll. Azubuike and McCormack have done damage in the post. Azubuike and Agbaji have been effective as cutters, and although he’s been less efficient, McCormack is often utilized as a cutter as well. The Jayhawks don’t play a ton of isolation ball, but Dotson is capable when need be.

The defensive numbers are good as well. Kansas is surrendering 0.773 points per possession, ranking in the 87th percentile.

Kansas has done a very good job limiting teams in transition. The Jayhawks have done a good job defending cuts, handoffs, and screens, and have defended the pick and roll reasonably well. Surprisingly, they’ve had some trouble defending post-ups, and have been susceptible to spot-ups and isolations as well.

A look at the defensive numbers tells you why Braun and De Sousa have gotten limited minutes, as they have been the poorest individual defenders by a fair margin. For the most part, the Kansas regulars rank well defensively, although Azubuike carries an “average” rating.

Garrett, Dotson, and Azubuike have struggled defending spot-ups. Moss has been susceptible guarding the pick and roll ballhandler while Agbaji has struggled in isolation. Azubuike has been average when guarding the roll man.

It would seem there are some very specific ways to attack Kansas offensively for Villanova. Obviously, ball movement and getting good looks are always the key, but it will be interesting to see how intent the Wildcats are in going after individual weaknesses. Will they try to get Agbaji in iso situations? Do they target Dotson and Garrett with shooters?

Perhaps most interesting will be how they attack Azubuike. He’s struggled to defend shooters and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl has enough touch to be a threat from the mid-range and out. The Wildcats could also put Azubuike in a lot of pick and rolls. It’s pretty clear he’s less comfortable defending in space, and I would expect the ‘Cats to make an effort to pull him away from the basket.

Defensively, there are a lot of questions for ‘Nova. The ‘Cats haven’t been particularly good at that end yet this season, and Kansas certainly presents a challenge. Azubuike is a load a 7’0” and it will be difficult for the ‘Cats to match that size. One positive is that Wright is used to playing with undersized lineups and his teams are traditionally very good at fronting the post and mitigating size disadvantages, and that’s something we’ll be watching on Saturday.

Unfortunately, Kansas is far from a one-trick pony offensively and can attack in different ways. The ‘Cats will need to be connected on that end of the floor.

As usual, we’ll also be keeping an eye on rebounding and turnovers. Villanova will need to keep Kansas off the offensive glass and a positive rebounding margin overall could go a long way towards a ‘Cats win. Likewise, winning the turnover battle would be huge for ‘Nova.

The foul line could be huge as well. Kansas hasn’t been great from the charity stripe and has had a penchant for sending opponents to the line. In addition to the possible scoring margin that could open up from the line, getting a few of Kansas’ key players in foul trouble could be a huge benefit for the ‘Cats, so we’ll be watching the officials and the foul count, especially early.

Interestingly, although not surprisingly, the computers expect a tight game. KenPom projects a one-point win for the Jayhawks, while ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Villanova a 62.6 percent chance to take home the victory.

Saturday’s game will be a great test for the ‘Cats as well as a measuring stick for where they’re at right now. It’s also, obviously, an opportunity for a huge non-conference win. Chances to play the No. 1 team in the country don’t come along every day, and it will be interesting to see how the ‘Cats handle it.

The game is scheduled for a noon tip-off.