Game Preview: Kansas

81.1 points per game 71.4 points against per game 39.4 rebounds per game 48.4% FG 37.7% 3PT FG 0.975 points per possession (per Synergy Sports, 82nd percentile) 0.842 points against per possession (68th percentile)

Kansas Rankings

AP: 1 Coaches: 1 Ken Pom: 2 (7th offense, 6th defense) BPI: 8 Sagarin: 6

The Wildcats have a tall task on Saturday as they look to bounce back from the loss to Penn when they travel to one of the most difficult venues in college basketball to take on the No. 1 team in the country. After what we saw on Tuesday night, it’s difficult to envision a positive outcome for Villanova, but that’s why they play the games and the matchup provides a huge opportunity for the ‘Cats.

Offensively, the Jayhawks are led by 6’9” junior Dedric Lawson. He is averaging 19.1 points, 10.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. Senior Lagerald Vick chips in 16.3 points per game. A pair of freshman, Devon Dotson and Quentin Grimes, add 11 and 8.3 respectively.

Kansas’ offense will present a challenge to a struggling Villanova defense. The Jayhawks have shot the ball well and have also excelled in the post, on offensive rebounds, and off cuts, the last of which is a major concern for Villanova.

Kansas will be without 7’1” Udoka Azubuike, who is its third-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. The good news is that Azubuike’s absence should limit the Jayhawks’ production in the post and give the ‘Cats a chance to gain an advantage on the glass. The bad news is the resulting adjustments for Kansas could cause problems for ‘Nova.

Shay Wildeboor of Jayhawkslant.com shares what Azubuike’s absence could mean for the Kansas offense. “With Azubuike and Dedric Lawson on the court, the middle became clogged and didn't allow the guards to drive and push the ball to the basket. With Dedric playing the 5 and Kansas going small, Kansas can spread the court out more, which allows guys like Devon Dotson, Quentin Grimes, Lagerald Vick, Marcus Garrett and company to drive the ball to the basket.” Villanova has struggled to defend dribble penetration, and a better-spaced offense could cause some headaches for the ‘Cats.

Defensively, Kansas has been average guarding shooters, isolations, and cuts and has been poor in transition. Interestingly, the freshman Dotson and Grimes have ranked among Kansas’ best individual defenders, along with Azubuike.

Villanova could look to attack Lawson and Vick, as that duo has ranked average to below average defensively. In addition, making them work on the defensive end could serve to help slow them offensively.

Instincts tell you ‘Nova should look to slow the game down and control the pace, as it doesn’t want to get into a shootout with the Jayhawks. But the ‘Cats could also use some easy buckets and should look to exploit Kansas’ struggles in transition. They will need to find a balance between the two on Saturday afternoon.

In addition to pace, rebounding, turnovers, and ball movement will be keys on Saturday.

The ‘Cats were poor on the glass against Penn but have been good through most of the season. With Azubuike out, there should be an opportunity for them to gain an advantage on the boards. Limiting second-chance opportunities for the Jayhawks while securing some of their own could go a long way towards an upset.

The Kansas offense is way too good for Villanova to give it extra opportunities while having empty possessions of their own. Kansas has been decent at protecting the ball but have been only slightly above average at forcing turnovers. Gaining an advantage in the turnover department would be huge.

Despite Tuesday’s setback against Penn, the Villanova offense has shown flashes of the type of ball movement that has come to define the program at that end of the floor. In Kansas’ to most challenging games, a six-point overtime win against Tennessee and a three-point win over New Mexico State last time out, the Jayhawks were out-assisted. If the ‘Cats can move the ball well, get the Kansas defense scrambling, and generate good looks, the chances for an upset increase.

Frankly, Villanova has done little to inspire confidence that its ready to compete in a game of this magnitude. But stranger things have happened, and if ‘Nova can put together its best effort at both ends of the floor perhaps they can pull the shocker. At the very least it will be a great learning experience for the young ‘Cats, and we’ll just have to wait to see what kind of performance they can put together.