On Sunday, Villanova will look to bounce back from Wednesday’s loss to St. John’s when it hosts Georgetown. The Wildcats took down the Hoyas 76-63 on December 11.

A quick glance at Georgetown’s numbers might lead you to take the Hoyas lightly. They are just 5-8 on the season and are ranked 95th by KenPom and 90th by Haslametrics. Villanova, however, won’t be tempted to overlook the Hoyas.

For starters, this same Georgetown team built an 18-point lead over Villanova in the first half of their December matchup. “We saw it in the first half of our game, they kind of got on us a little bit,” Collin Gillespie said. “So we know what they’re capable of.”

In addition, the Hoyas have come back hot after a long COVID pause. Georgetown had a gap from January 9 to January 30 between games but has won each of the two games it’s played since returning, including an impressive 86-79 win on the road at Creighton on Wednesday. “The last two games is how they played the first half against us,” Jay Wright said. “Georgetown showed in that first half (against Villanova) what they’re capable of. I think they’re playing as well as anybody in the conference right now.”

The Hoyas have shot the ball reasonably well from 3 and from the free throw line, but they don’t get to the charity stripe a ton. They’ve also been pretty solid on the glass, although they have been susceptible to allowing opponents to convert second-chance opportunities when they come.

“They’re really sharing the ball well, they’re shooting it from 3 well, they’ve got a great inside game in Wahab and even the bigs that come off the bench,” Jay Wright said regarding what Georgetown has been doing well since returning from the pause. “They’re a really good team. Defensively they’ve got great length.”

Turnovers continue to be an issue for the Hoyas, although they have made some improvement in that area. Heading into the first meeting between the teams, Georgetown was committing 18.5 turnovers per game. That number has dropped to 14.9, but Georgetown still turns it over on 20.6% of its possessions, ranking 247th in the country. In addition, the Hoyas don’t force a ton of turnovers either, posting an opponent’s turnover percentage of 13.9, ranking 342nd out of 357 Division I teams.

The Hoyas are still led by Jahvon Blair (17.6 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists), Jamorko Pickett (11.9 points, 8.4 rebounds) and Qudus Wahab (11.8 points, 7.8 rebounds). Donald Carey (9.4 points, 3.7 rebounds), Chudier Bile (8.6 points, 4.6 rebounds) and Dante Harris (6.4 points) were other contributors in the first meeting between the teams. In addition, Timothy Ighoefe was the lone Hoya to post a positive +/- in the first ‘Nova game.

Looking at the first meeting between the teams, and the contrast between halves, gives us a pretty good picture of what will matter in Sunday’s matchup.

In the first half, in which Georgetown led by as many as 18 before taking a 13-point advantage into the break, the Hoyas shot 58.1% overall and 50% from 3 and committed only three turnovers. In the second half, Georgetown shot 26.7% overall and just 9.1% from 3. The Hoyas also committed nine second-half turnovers after taking care of the ball well in the first half. As a result, Villanova ran up a 21-point advantage from beyond the arc in the second half and turned Georgetown’s 12 turnovers for the game into 20 points while the Hoyas managed just three points on seven ‘Nova giveaways.

As a result, the first two things we’ll be watching will be the 3-point line and turnovers. When Georgetown was able to knock down some 3s and take care of the ball, it not only hung with ‘Nova but had the ‘Cats in a significant hole. When Villanova took charge of the 3-point battle and started causing some more turnovers, the Wildcats completely flipped the script and turned a 13-point deficit into a 13-point lead with a 43-17 second half.

Both teams shoot the ball reasonably well from 3 and both teams like to shoot the 3-ball. Georgetown has gotten 36.2% of its points from beyond the arc, 53rd most in the country and only slightly behind Villanova’s 37.8%.

We don’t expect many Villanova turnovers, as not only are the Wildcats the second-best team in the country in turnover percentage but Georgetown is one of the worst in the country at forcing turnovers. Meanwhile, while ‘Nova has been middle-of-the-pack forcing turnovers, Georgetown has had issues taking care of the ball. This should be a clear Villanova advantage, but part of what we saw in the first half of the first meeting was a result of Georgetown preventing a Villanova advantage in this department.

While the 3-point line gets a lot of attention, 2-point shooting was interesting in the first meeting of these teams. In Georgetown’s big first half, the Hoyas shot 12-19 from 2-point range while holding ‘Nova to just 5-12. While Georgetown was keeping up with Villanova from beyond the arc in the first half (6-12 for G-town, 7-22 for Nova), it was actually the big advantage inside the arc that helped the Hoyas build a lead.

In the second half, Nova hit 5-9 from 2-point range while Georgetown hit 7-19. As we mentioned, the biggest turnaround in the second half was turnovers and Villanova’s big 3-point advantage, but the turnaround in 2-point shooting is no coincidence.

Finally, we’ll simply be watching to see how Villanova responds to not only its first loss in two months but also to one of its worst performances in recent memory.

The game is scheduled for a 2:30 tipoff on FOX.