Game Preview: Georgetown

Georgetown has been a team powered by the offense this season. The Hoyas average 79.6 points per game but allow 72.2. They shoot 45.4 percent from the field and grab 41 rebounds per game. They also average 16 assists, 4.8 blocks, and 6.9 steals.

Last time out, Georgetown secured a much-needed win over St. John’s to earn its first Big East victory of the season. The Hoyas sit at 11-5 on the season and 1-2 in conference play. Outside of a loss to UNC Greensboro, Georgetown hasn’t really suffered any “bad” losses. The other four defeats came against Penn State, Duke, at Providence, and at Seton Hall. It also doesn’t own any particularly impressive wins, with its most notable victories being over Texas, Oklahoma State, SMU, and Syracuse.

The KenPom numbers drive home Georgetown’s reliance on offense. Ranked 46th overall in that metric, the Hoyas check in at No. 20 offensively and No. 90 defensively.

The Hoyas rank 19th in offensive rebound percentage, 33rd in free-throw percentage, and 81st in three-point percentage. They’ve done a good job getting to the line, haven’t had many of their shots blocked, and have taken care of the ball reasonably well. Most of their damage has been done from inside the arc, as they get 54.2 percent of their points from two-point range and just 24.3 percent from three-point range (307th in the country). Turnovers have been an issue as well, as the Hoyas give it up 15 times per game and on 20.2 percent of their possessions.

Defensively, they’ve struggled to defend the perimeter as opponents are connecting on 34.5 percent of their three-point attempts.

Per Synergy Sports, Georgetown averages 0.914 points per possession, ranking in the 66th percentile.

The Hoyas have done well in spot-up situations as well as in the post. They’ve also had success using the pick and roll ballhandler, off screens, and in isolation. They’ve struggled using handoffs and utilizing the roll man in the pick and roll.

Omer Yurtseven (16.9 points, 9.9 rebounds, 1.6 blocks) and Mac McClung (16.4 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.4 steals) have been Georgetown’s best individual offensive players. Jahvon Blair (7.5 points) and Jagan Mosely (7.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists) have been solid as well. Jamorko Pickett (9.2, 6.0 rebounds) and Terrell Allen (6.8 points, 3.6 assists) round out the heart of the rotation.

We must note that the Hoyas have lost James Akinjo, who was leading the team in assists and steals, and Josh LeBlanc to the transfer portal. That’s over 20 points, nearly six rebounds, nearly five assists, and nearly three steals worth of production.

McClung, Pickett, Blair, Mosely, and Allen have all been good in spot-up situations with Mosley, Pickett, and McClung serving as the team’s best three-point shooters. McClung, Allen, and Blair have been the primary ballhandlers in the pick and roll, with McClung and Blair having the most success. Yurtseven has been excellent in the post, while Pickett and Qudus Wahab have seen work down low as well. McClung is the main threat in isolation.

Defensively, the Hoyas rank in just the 47th percentile with 0.858 PPP.

Georgetown has defended well in transition and has been excellent guarding the post. They’ve had trouble guarding the pick and roll, spot-ups, screens, and isolations.

Individually, outside of Yurtseven (excellent) and Allen (good), all of Georgetown’s key rotation pieces carry a rating of average of worse.

McClung and Blair are the players to attack with shooters. Mosely, Blair, and Allen have struggled with the pick and roll. Mosely and McClung haven’t handled screens well and Mosely has been susceptible in isolation.

Offensively, the Wildcats should be able to get what they want. It would be nice to see an improved shooting performance, but Villanova should be able to attack in a variety of ways. It would also be nice to see more trips to the foul line. Recently, I’ve advocated for Villanova to push the pace a bit more than we’ve seen from them this year, but I don’t think Saturday is a time for that. Georgetown defends in transition well and you don’t want to get into a shootout with the Hoyas. Villanova did an excellent job controlling the pace against Creighton, especially in the second half, and that is probably the most prudent approach against Georgetown. The Hoyas have averaged 86.5 points in their wins and have scored 80+ in all 11 victories. Conversely, they are averaging just 64.4 points in their five losses and have scored under 70 in four of those five games.

Defensively, Yurtseven presents an interesting challenge with his 7-foot frame. ‘Nova doesn’t have that kind of size, and it will be interesting to see how they deal with the big guy. Jay Wright is used to playing small and his teams have had to deal with size disparities many times and have found great success with fronting the post and playing team defense. ‘Nova did an excellent job on Kansas’ Udoka Azubuike in the win over the No. 1 Jayhawks in December. Being strong on the ball at the point of attack will be key as well.

It will be important for Villanova to hold its own on the glass. Georgetown is a good rebounding team and has been excellent on the offensive glass, and Villanova doesn’t want to give up too many extra possessions. The turnover battle will be key as well and could be a way for the ‘Cats to offset any advantage Georgetown may build on the boards. Those factors, along with the pace, will be the things we’re keeping our eye on Saturday afternoon.

Nothing should be taken for granted in the Big East this season, and Villanova will need to show up and execute, but this is a game the Wildcats should win. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the ‘Cats a 78.4 percent chance to win, while KenPom predicts a six-point ‘Nova win. With every conference win holding serious weight in a tough Big East, it is imperative to both protect the home court and to not slip up in games that you have a clear advantage in on paper. With so little room for error in the Big East this season, we expect the Wildcats to be ready to play, but the Hoyas will be desperate to not fall to 1-3 in Big East play and should also come out ready to give ‘Nova their best shot. The stage is set for another intense Big East clash.