Tonight, Villanova heads to DC to get its first look at Georgetown and new head coach Patrick Ewing.
After an 8-0 start and a 10-1 finish in the non-conference, the realities of the Big East have caught up with the Hoyas. Georgetown enters tonight’s contest sitting at 12-5, with a 2-4 record in conference play. The Hoyas have wins over DePaul and St. John’s, the two teams below them in the Big East standings. They have lost to Butler, Marquette, Creighton, and Seton Hall.
While the hot start to the season proved to be a mirage produced by playing literally the easiest schedule in the country, Georgetown fans have to be happy with the early returns with their new head coach. While it remains to be seen how the rest of the season will play out, considering what the roster lost from last year and the state of the program heading into this season, Georgetown is in a relatively decent place.
That being said, there is still plenty of work to do, and Villanova will be expected to win this game with ease.
For the most part, the Hoyas have been neither great or terrible at anything outside of some impressive rebounding numbers.
There have been two main struggles on offense: three-point shooting and turnovers. Georgetown shoots just 34% from beyond the arc, getting just 25.5% of their points from three, which is among the lowest in the country.
The Hoyas have turned the ball over on 21.9% of their possessions, totaling 16 per game. Marcus Derrickson, Jamorko Pickett, and Jonathan Mulmore each average over two per game, while five other Hoyas average at least one.
Georgetown has struggled to produce in transition. It has also been poor in isolation and average in spot ups. The Hoyas have been good in the post, off cuts, attacking with the pick and roll ballhandler, and on the offensive glass.
The frontcourt duo of Jessie Govan and Marcus Derrickson have been the go-to pair for the Hoyas. Govan is averaging 17.6 points and 11.4 rebounds, while Derrickson chips in 14.9 and 7.5.
The bulk of their offensive production comes in the post and on cuts, and they have been very effective in those situations. The pair has also been lethal on the offensive glass. Derrickson has had some success spotting up, and he knocks down 44% from deep, one of only two Hoyas above the 40% mark.
6-6 wing Kaleb Johnson has been effective as well, adding 10 points and 5.1 rebounds. Like Govan and Derrickson, Johnson has been effective when cutting and has been a factor on the offensive glass. He has also been one of Georgetown’s most effective spot up shooters.
6-7 Jamorko Pickett averages 7.6 points per night. He has struggled shooting the ball, hitting just 32% from the floor. He also shoots just 31% from three, but has the most three-point attempts on the team.
Most of the minutes in the backcourt go to the trio of Jahvon Blair, Jagan Mosley, and Jonathan Mulmore. They add 8.7, 7.3, and 6.5 points respectively.
Blair and Mulmore have been effective running the pick and roll, and Mulmore has had some success spotting up.
Like Pickett, Blair has developed an affinity for launching from deep, and has connected on just 32% of those attempts. He is second on the team in three-pointers attempted.
Georgetown is effective when getting to the line, knocking down 78% of its free throws.
Digging into the Hoya defense, things get interesting. The traditional numbers don’t jump out at you: 69.9 points per game, good for 116th in the country and the No. 69 rank at KenPom. But if you take a deeper dive, using Synergy Sports to look at a breakdown of the Georgetown performance in defending the individual sets and plays of an opponent’s offense, you’ll find that the Hoyas don’t rank as “poor” or even “below average” in any single category. They struggle most with cuts and hand offs, falling in the middle of the pack in those situations. Teams have had the most success attacking Georgetown in the mid-range.
That’s not to say that every Hoya excels in every defensive situation. Overall, Synergy ranks Johnson and Pickett has Georgetown’s weakest defenders, surrendering .96 and .87 points per possession respectively.
Statistically, defending shooters has been the closest thing to a struggle for Georgetown at that end of the floor. Derrickson and Mulmore have been good, but the rest of the roster has been average at best, with Johnson and Trey Dickerson struggling the most.
Mosley and Derrickson have struggled with the pick and roll.
In addition to their own turnover issues, the Hoyas have struggled to generate turnovers on the defensive end.
The blueprint for ‘Nova is pretty simple. At the top of the list is turnovers. Georgetown has struggled to protect the ball, averaging 16 turnovers per game. In its five losses, that number jumps to 18.6. Forcing Hoya turnovers and turning them into offense will be key.
Protecting the ball will be important as well. In Georgetown’s five losses they have forced 12.8 turnovers. In its two Big East wins, it forced 15.5. ‘Nova has done well in this area this season, averaging just 10 per game despite the 17 in Saturday’s win over St. John’s. The Red Storm had just nine, and that played a big role in helping the Johnnies hang around.
Another area to watch is the glass. Georgetown averages 41.1 rebounds per game, which puts them at 14th nationally in that stat. The Hoyas have been effective converting offensive rebounds to points, and generating second opportunities while limiting ‘Nova to one shot will be high on the Georgetown list of keys to going for the upset.
Limiting the Hoya frontcourt will be huge as well. The 6-6 Johnson is listed as a guard, but is more of a wing and his stats read more like a forward, so we’ll lump him in the frontcourt with Govan and Derrickson. That trio represents all of Georgetown’s double-figure scorers, as well as its top three rebounders. Those three also take 47% of Georgetown’s shots. ‘Nova should sell-out to stop the trio and force Pickett and the backcourt to beat them. A potential matchup between Derrickson and Mikal Bridges is intriguing.
Finally, keeping Georgetown off the free throw line will be important.
Villanova has a clear advantage in the backcourt, and it would be good to see Jalen Brunson, Phil Booth, and Donte DiVincenzo take advantage.
Rivalry games, especially on the road, can be tricky. Georgetown would love to make a statement about the state of its program and the progress of its rebuild with a win over its top-ranked rivals. While there have been encouraging signs from the Hoyas, the start of conference play has confirmed that there is still a lot of work to be done. While ‘Nova has no seniors in its rotation, there is a ton of experience packed into the roster as a result of post-season runs, the number of big games the team has been a part of over the past three seasons, and the use of redshirts. Meanwhile Georgetown is relatively inexperienced and learning on the fly. If the Wildcats play Villanova basketball, win the turnover battle, and hold their own on the boards, they should come home with the victory.
The game is on FS1 at 6:30.
