Published Dec 13, 2019
Game Preview: Delaware
Josh Naso  •  NovaIllustrated
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The Wildcats will get back on the court Saturday for the first time in a week when they take on Delaware at the Never Forget Tribute Classic in Newark, NJ.

At first glance, the Blue Hens come into the game looking formidable on paper. They boast a 9-1 record, scoring 75 points per game while surrendering 63.3. They’re shooting 48.1 percent from the field and 36.7 percent from three. Delaware suffered its first loss in its most recent outing, 66-56 at the hands of George Washington.

However, a deeper look takes a bit of the shine off the impressive record and decent standard numbers. Per KenPom, Delaware hasn’t beaten a team ranked better than No. 164. The Blue Hens land at No. 161 in that metric, 135th offensively and 209th defensively.

Delaware’s offensive success has been driven by solid shooting (No. 56 in effective FG%, No. 60 in two-point FG%, No. 89 in three-point FG%, and No. 42 in FT%) and taking care of the ball (No. 24 in TO%). The Blue Hens have been weak on the offensive glass.

Defensively, Delaware has performed decently in terms of opponent FG% (No. 90 effective FG%, No. 95 three-point FG%, and No. 101 two-point FG%). However, they haven’t forced turnovers, ranking 272nd in turnover percentage and 285th in steal percentage.

The Blue Hens have basically used an eight-man rotation, with four players averaging 31+ minutes per game, another averaging 26, and three more getting at least 10.5.

Guard Nate Darling leads the way with 21.3 points per game, adding 4.4 rebounds. He’s knocked down an impressive 44.3 percent of his three-point attempts. In Delaware’s loss last Saturday, he was limited to 12 points on 14.3 percent three-point shooting.

Forward Justyn Mutts chips in 14.5 points and 9.5 rebounds. Guard Ryan Allen adds 14.3 points on 38.2 percent from three. Guard Kevin Anderson rounds out the 30+ MPG players and double-figure scorers with 11.2 points and a team-high 4.9 assists. He also connects on 37.5 percent from three.

Forward Collin Goss adds 7.8 points and 6.5 rebounds.

The double-figure minute players are rounded out by a pair of forwards in Jacob Cushing (2.6 PPG) and Aleks Novakovich (2.2 PPG) and guard Johnny McCoy (1.6).

The Synergy numbers look good for the Blue Hens. They are averaging 0.975 points per possession, ranking in the 90th percentile.

Delaware ranks “very good” or “excellent” in the following play types: spot-up, pick and roll ballhandler, transition, post up, cuts, isolation, offensive rebounds, and handoffs. The only areas where it doesn’t carry a solid rating is off screens (average) and roll man in the pick and roll (poor).

The trend continues when we look at the individual breakdown: Darling, Mutts, Allen, Anderson, Goss, and Cushing all rank as either “good,” “very good,” or “excellent.” Novakovich gets a “below average” rating, as does McCoy. Unsurprisingly, those two players only combine for seven percent of the offense.

Darling, Anderson, and Allen have all had success running the pick and roll. Darling and Allen have been the most lethal transition ball handlers, while Mutts can get out and run the floor as well. Mutts and Goss have been effective in the post. Delaware likes to get Mutts and Goss involved through cuts, and Anderson and Allen have been Delaware’s best isolation players.

I’d expect a steady dose of high ball screens for Darling, much like we saw from St. Joe’s for Ryan Daly. Mutts does a lot of work in the post, but he and Goss have also done much of the screening and I wouldn’t be surprised to see some slip screens mixed in or to see one of them cutting away from the main action.

Defensively, we get an interesting contrast between the Synergy and KenPom numbers. When looking at the KenPom numbers, it occurred to me that the individual metrics that make up the overall rating didn’t seem to support such a poor overall number. The Synergy numbers seem to support that suspicion.

Synergy ranks Delaware in the 73rd percentile, surrendering 0.806 PPP.

The defensive strengths have been spot-ups, cuts, isolation, and the roll man in the pick and roll. The struggles have come against the pick and roll ballhandler, handoffs, screens, and in the post.

Anderson, Darling, McCoy, and Novakovic would be the individual defenders Villanova should look to isolate. Allen, Mutts, and Goss have been the best individual defenders.

It will be interesting to see if ‘Nova feeds Delaware a steady diet of traditional pick and rolls. Per Synergy, 14.3 percent of Villanova’s offense has come from the P/R ballhandler so far this season.

It’s hard to know just how much stock to put into the numbers here. As we mentioned, Delaware’s best KenPom win was No. 164. Three of the Blue Hens victories were over teams with ranked in the 200’s, and one was over No. 349 Maryland Eastern Shore. Also, GW, who just beat Delaware, is ranked No. 232. All of that is to say, the Blue Hens haven’t even come close to playing a team on Villanova’s level.

As such, the Wildcats should handle business on Saturday. Delaware has some shooters, and the ability to hit from beyond the arc can serve as a great equalizer on the basketball court, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on the perimeter defense.

One final note of interest, former Wildcat and current Blue Hen Dylan Painter will not be allowed to play by the NCAA. Painter needed to sit out the first semester per NCAA transfer rules, and Delaware’s semester doesn’t end until 10 PM on Saturday. Because the game is a 2 PM tip, the semester technically isn’t over, and Painter won’t be allowed to play. Those are some pretty bizarre circumstances that highlight the arbitrary world of NCAA enforcement. At any rate, it’s disappointing that Painter won’t be able to suit up against his former team.