On Saturday, Villanova will get its second look at Creighton when it hosts the Bluejays at the Wells Fargo Center.
The Wildcats gutted out a tough 64-59 win over Creighton in early January, a victory that was the start of Villanova’s current seven-game winning streak.
The Bluejays have gone 4-1 and since the loss to ‘Nova, beating Xavier twice, Providence, and DePaul while falling to Georgetown. They’re 16-5 overall and 5-3 in the Big East, two games behind Villanova.
Since we’ve already discussed Creighton’s tendencies in detail in our first game preview, here we will simply aim to highlight any big changes since the last meeting and look at the previous meeting between the teams rather than re-hashing all the numbers.
One thing that stands out is the Marcus Zegarowski has seen a nearly two PPG drop in his average since the last meeting, which is a sizeable number in such a short amount of time. That’s not to suggest that he doesn’t remain a dangerous offensive player, just that he’s not quite as hot as he was early in the season.
The Bluejays have seen an improvement in their overall KenPom ranking, from No. 41 at the first meeting to No. 28. They are currently ranked No. 8 offensively, up from No. 16, and have regressed slightly defensively, from No. 90 to No. 97.
Creighton continues to post strong shooting numbers (52.3 percent from two, 37.2 percent from three, 46.3 percent overall) and continue to take care of the ball.
The Bluejays are still defending the three-point line well but struggle to force turnovers.
There hasn’t been much of a change to the Synergy numbers offensively, as Creighton’s 0.987 points per possession are up, but by just 0.001. The Bluejays’ PPP allowed is up to 0.854 from 0.850.
The last meeting between the teams really came down to the three-point line and defense.
‘Nova shot just 18.2 percent from deep, but still managed a nine-point advantage from beyond the arc by holding Creighton to 21.4 percent. The Bluejays shot 41.5 percent overall, well below their season averages in both categories. Villanova also committed just five turnovers while forcing nine. Consequently, the ‘Cats were able to get eight more shot attempts than Creighton, helping to offset the shooting struggles. Holding Creighton to 59 points was an impressive feat, and the ‘Cats overcame a slow start with a stellar second half in which they outscored Creighton by 13.
Creighton will present a defensive challenge for Villanova, the Bluejays remain a talented offensive team. They’ve only been held under 60 points three times this season, so that will be a difficult feat for ‘Nova to replicate. Still, the experience of the first game and being at home should help.
Saturday’s game marks the first part of a particularly daunting stretch for Villanova that includes Creighton, at Butler, Big East-leading Seton Hall, and Marquette. It’s hard to overstate the impact that stretch will have on the Big East standings come the end of the season, and it would be huge for the ‘Cats to be able to start it off with a win.
It will be another test for the Wildcats. They’ve been rising to the occasion in a big way over the last few weeks and will try to do so again on Saturday. The game is scheduled for noon and will air on FS1.